Thewesternbalkans
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić was the first among European leaders to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory in the US presidential elections. This shows that Vučić is visibly encouraged by the outcome of the US elections.
Trump and Vučić are old acquaintances. During his first term as president, Trump tried to bring about reconciliation between Serbia and Kosovo. The triumphantly signed Trump-brokered agreement to normalize economic relations between Serbia and Kosovo in September 2020 remained however only on paper. Certainly, the next American administration may make a new attempt to solve the most acute conflict in the Balkans, especially if Richard Grinnell is included in it (for example, as secretary of state or national security adviser to Trump). He is a former US representative for the Western Balkans and an expert on the region. It was Grinnell who orchestrated the removal of Albin Kurti as Prime Minister of Kosovo and arranged for the signing of the agreement at the White House in September 2020 by Serbian President Vučić and then Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti.
Albanians in Kosovo strongly wanted Kamala Harris to win because US Democrats provided Kosovo with significant funding. Albanians probably don’t have that kind of lobbying among Trump’s entourage. No major reduction in US funding or arms supplies to Kosovo can be expected, but the American Bondsteel military base is no longer the only one in the region. Trump will not give up his role as a “peacemaker” in the region, but rather leave it up to the EU to solve problems, including the issues of funding and support for KFOR.
Western pressure on Serbia to implement sanctions against Russia could ease, especially if Trump’s peace plan for the war in Ukraine, which includes easing Russian sanctions, moves forward.
Vučić is in a friendly group with the prime ministers of Hungary and Slovakia, Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico, who, like Trump, are considered opportunists and are not tied to any ideological bias.
Trump’s election to the presidency could have a positive impact on Middle East peace efforts, which is consistent with Serbia’s prioritization of Middle East peace.
Trump’s presidency may also have negative sides for Belgrade. Trump is an outspoken opponent of China, while A. Vučić’s positions are just the opposite. Over the past decade, Serbia has been a hotbed for Chinese investments, and Chinese influence in the country is strong enough to facilitate Belgrade’s adoption of favorable foreign policy positions related to Beijing’s vital sovereignty and human rights issues. China, for its part, supports the territorial sovereignty of Serbia and does not recognize Kosovo.
It is unclear how Belgrade will be able to satisfy both Beijing and Washington at the same time, especially if Trump’s approach to China becomes more confrontational. A US trade war with China, and eventually with the EU, will have a negative impact on Serbia’s foreign economic relations. As the US-China rivalry intensifies, countries such as Serbia, which maintains intense ties with China, may be marginalized.
In general, the Serbian population was biased in favor of Trump during the election. The mood among the Serbian political elite is also optimistic, as US-Serbia relations have been on an upward trajectory for the past eight years. But if Washington increases criticism or pressure on Belgrade regarding the weakening of democracy, the Serbian elite may activate the eastern vector in its foreign policy.
It is more likely that the new American administration will not show much interest in the Balkans, which may give more room for populists and nationalists to speak out. The first sign of this was the loud celebration of Trump’s victory by Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska.
Vučić, for his part, may also try to increase Washington’s attention to himself through the Israel lobby or individuals combining their own business interests with American politics, such as Jared Kushner.
The European Union will probably make an attempt to use the months until the new American administration works at full speed to consolidate the “geopolitical role” of the Union declared by Brussels, at least in the Western Balkans region. To attract public support among the peoples of the region and consolidate the new enthusiasm for the enlargement process, the EU needs to combine economic incentives with a values-based approach to enlargement, as well as to make more efforts for regional security.
