Thewesternbalkans
The most up-to-date assessment of relations between the PRC and the US was made during what was probably the last meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden on November 16, 2024, in Lima, within the framework of the G-20 meeting. Xi Jinping said the two countries have experienced ups and downs in relations over the past four years, but the two sides have maintained dialogue and cooperation. The “Thucydite trap” is not inevitable, the Chinese leader pointed out.
There is optimism in Beijing that Trump’s approach to international relations may align with Chinese interests. Trump is not interested in ideology and political values and is a supporter of the “dealer” approach. He created a network of billionaire advisers – Elon Musk, Steven Schwartzman, Steve Wynn and Linda McMahon.
Trump’s desperate showdown with political opponents at home will weaken the American political system, Beijing hopes. And an “America First” strategy will cause friction with Washington’s allies. Beijing expects Trump to force Ukraine to make concessions.
Chinese experts did not see strategic differences in the election campaigns, but rather tactical differences. They do not expect the change in control of Congress to lead to significant changes in the overall trajectory of the bilateral relationship. However, Republican control could lead to the termination of Normal Permanent Trade Relations with China. Beijing is waiting to see the first steps in the Trump administration to assess whether they are a signal that Trump will bargain with Xi or that Washington will take a serious turn toward unilateral disengagement from China.
In the Republican strategy paper Project 2025: A Leadership Mandate. The Conservative Promise‘, published in 2023, China is mentioned 475 times. The document is of 922 pages, i.e. China is mentioned on every second page, indicating the focus of the next US administration on China.
Among the main authors is Peter Navarro, a China hawk. As Commerce Secretary, he was one of only three senior administration officials to accompany Trump throughout his tenure.
Project 2025 found that the “competition where we must and cooperation where we can” policy toward China has failed and insisted that “economic cooperation with China should be ended, not rethought.”
China’s aggressive behavior can only be stopped with external pressure, the authors of “Project 2025” note. China’s challenge stems from strategic culture (history, ideology, culture, institutions over 5,000 years), not Marxism-Leninism.
The defense policy part states that the main enemy is China. Denial defense against China is prioritized – to deny China the ability to operate without restrictions in the Western Pacific Ocean region (air and sea dominance of China in the first island chain); to make it impossible for China to dominate Taiwan and other US allies, but at a cost the US can bear (i.e. no two-front war, allies sharing the burden of defense).
The foreign policy section on China is titled “Respond Vigorously to the Chinese Threat.” The Trump administration will likely retain the State Department’s newly opened Office of China Coordination, or “China House.” This office is designed to bring together experts inside and outside the State Department to coordinate the US government’s relationship with China.
The Republican administration will support the concept of centralizing efforts on China mutatis mutandis. This is an expression of the bipartisan understanding that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been “at war” with the US for decades, and that reality is now accepted across the government, and the State Department must be prepared to lead US diplomatic efforts accordingly.
On the basis of the “Project 2025”, it can be concluded that the strategy for direct containment and confrontation with China has already been developed and the tools for its implementation are being sought. However, the US cannot focus on containing China until the Ukrainian conflict is over.
Trump’s proposals for new appointments in the upper echelon of the administration are received by Chinese experts with pessimism:
Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, is a China hawk, sanctioned twice by Beijing in 2020 for imposing sanctions on China over the Uyghurs, which will set a foreign policy precedent. Rubio is expected to choose a confrontational approach over diplomacy, advocating cutting off all supply chains with China.
Mike Waltz, National Security Advisor, China Hawk. He advocates intensifying the fight against the CCP threat and considers China an existential threat. He advocated a boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense believes that Beijing is building an army to defeat America. His belligerence will increase the tension in the relationship and increase the unpredictability.
John Ratcliffe, director of the CIA, believes that China is the biggest threat to the United States.
Trump’s selection is the strongest indicator that the US will pursue a tough policy on China. Vice President Vance is even more anti-China than Trump. However, there are tensions within the team between those who advocate a deal and those who advocate principled positions on democracy, human rights and military confrontation. For example, Trump is strongly convinced of the need to reduce American troops in the region, but he also has opponents in the cabinet.
So far, traditional neoconservative Republicans have the upper hand over those who are more restrained and instinctual.
However, there will be no quick changes in relations with China, Trump is the boss, but he will be influenced by his advisors. And he is influenced by the last heard opinion. Moreover, Trump is just one person against whom there are institutions with often conflicting interests.
Prospects for US-China relations
Relations will not return to the level of 10 years ago. This scenario is not realistic. Most likely, the competition between the USA and China and the attempts of the US to slow down or hold back China’s development in any way will continue.
The US has a number of advantages in economic terms:
– The US has the largest market in the world, it is three times larger than China’s consumer market in dollar terms;
– Technology. China’s lag in some areas is 5 to 10 years (according to Chinese experts). According to an Australian institute, China is ahead in 27 out of 33 technological areas. This could lead the US to try to limit China’s access not only to cutting-edge technology, but to any technology at all.
– The financial market. The US is capable of restricting Chinese companies’ access to finance.
Beijing is alarmed by the threat of financial sanctions and is rethinking its strategy for managing its $3.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves. Efforts are being made to diversify and reduce the role of the dollar to reduce risk. In addition, China is reducing export concessions from 01.12.2024 to bring appeasement to the international community.
In geopolitical terms, the US will implement the salami-slice tactic – it will systematically limit and push out the Chinese presence in the Southeast Asian region. In this scenario, there will be no negotiations and promises, but quick actions on the part of Washington, waiting for the Chinese reaction, negotiations, and in case of a favorable result for the USA – continuation of actions, despite Beijing’s protests.
The Biden administration created a single economic organism with China – 650 billion dollars in turnover. It was not intended to stop China’s development, but to oust anti-US Xi Jinping from power. Trump has no economic interests or lobbyists in China, except for the oil industry. Trump has threatened to impose 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods – this is more of a threat to achieve concessions, but an increase is sure to come. Tariffs are a weapon against China. But 60% tariffs spell death for Sino-US trade.
Worst-case scenario: not just competition between the US and the PRC, but an attempted regime change in Beijing. The US may try to push Taiwan towards independence. This will no longer be a competition, but a war. Taiwan was a focus of Trump’s election campaign. He demanded that Taiwan increase defense spending to 10% of GDP (Trump calls this a “defense fee”). Trump has repeatedly criticized Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing as crowding out American businesses and killing American jobs. This was felt in Taipei as a real pressure. Some experts expect a change in the approach to a deal on Taiwan.
Deal or no deal
Chinese leader Xi Jinping said: “We have thousands of reasons to improve Sino-US relations. And no reason to ruin them.” Going back a long time ago, Deng Xiaoping had pointed out: “Looking back, we find that all those countries that were ‘for’ the United States became rich. While all those that were ‘against’ the US has remained poor. We must be with the United States”. And Mao himself, for all his anti-American demagoguery, preferred to be friends with the US against the USSR.
Trump has always treated Xi Jinping with respect, they are on the same political spectrum.
What if Trump pulls a surprise and the threat of 60% tariffs on Chinese goods just goes away to pave the way for a giant new bilateral trade deal: a massive increase in Chinese investment in US jobs that will benefit Trump voters beyond measure more than the outdated tariffs.
High on Trump’s wish list: Chinese companies to open factories in the US; China to buy US goods aircraft (Boeing, soybeans and wheat) to help reduce record US trade deficit; Beijing to bring Russia to the negotiating table on Ukraine; China’s promise to keep North Korea under control.
There are indications of the development of the so called „Diplomacy of agricultural chains“ – Chinese coffee beans from Yunnan province versus American soybeans from the state of Arkansas („peace beans“) in search of balanced solutions.
Under Trump, informal contacts behind the scenes will have priority – “Freestyle Diplomacy”, with the inclusion of billionaires with economic interests in China, who will have an extraordinary role. In recent months, China has been trying to establish points of contact through unofficial, secret channels with the US in case of emergencies or crises. During Trump’s first term as president, then-Chinese ambassador Chui Tiankai had close ties to Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared Kushner. Trump can use billionaires like Elon Musk, Steven Schwartzman, Steve Wynn and Linda McMahon for informal diplomacy with Beijing.
Musk’s presence in China is seen as a good bridge for communications. But Musk’s prominent position in the Trump administration would mean an acceleration of the US space program, which could prove to be a “huge test” of China’s ambitions. Tensions could arise between Trump and Musk over China policy.
End of first part
