Thewesternbalkans
The slogan “America First” and Trump’s isolationist statements suggest a decrease in US interest in regions such as Africa and Latin America. In such a case, many countries will seek to intensify relations with China, which will seek to fill the vacuum. Brazil, for example, may reconsider its refusal to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China has opened the deep-sea port of Chankay in Peru, which has enormous economic importance. This is part of Beijing’s long-term strategy to strengthen its economic and political influence in a region that has previously been in the sphere of US interests. South America is of vital importance to China, as it provides 45% of all agricultural production needed by China.
The US may impose sanctions on countries that receive investment from China. Latin American countries, in turn, may strengthen regional cooperation (Mercosur, OAS, Pacific Union) in order to have a stronger negotiating position.
Southeast Asian countries are seeking neutrality in the US-China confrontation, prioritizing economic relations with China, but with a slight bias towards the US in terms of security. Some countries rely on the US for security, but there is also a risk, as the presence of US armed forces and weapons in countries such as Japan and South Korea will be reviewed. QUAD (the 2017 Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the US, Australia, Japan and India) will disappear. Trump does not like multilateral security formats. However, in exchange for security, Trump will demand concessions and payment of a “security fee” from allies.
The imposition of US sanctions on China will lead to the export of production plants to Asian countries, i.e. to the expansion of their cooperation with China. In recent days, there has been a trend towards the relocation of Chinese companies to Southeast Asia. This will have a destabilizing effect due to additional costs, adaptation, etc. The countries of the South Asian region will be flooded with Chinese goods, and their own competitiveness will weaken.
The imposition of tariffs will also have an inflationary effect on the United States itself.
During Trump’s term, the fight against the Chinese project BRI is expected to continue by all means, including by returning to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the withdrawal from which the Republicans recognize as a mistake.
According to leading Chinese experts, the aggravation of the confrontation between the United States and the EU is a chance for the EU to repair its relations with China in terms of business and investment. The EU and China can put aside their differences and form a united front against US protectionism in the direction of Europe’s strategic independence.
The administration of the newly elected US president will most likely not change its policy towards the Western Balkans. However, it will actively work on the entire region joining the EU. Washington is interested in the integration of all Western Balkan countries into the EU. In “Project 2025” – the conservatives’ plan for governance – the focus is on finding new allies in Central Europe and NATO’s eastern flank. A possible decline in the new US administration’s interest in the Balkans could give space to populists and nationalists in the region, such as Milorad Dodik, president of Republika Srpska.
Bulgaria is the only country in Europe without major Chinese investments, perhaps with the exception of Kosovo. But while Kosovo has not been recognized by China as an independent state, Bulgaria is the second country in the world (after the now-defunct USSR) to recognize the People’s Republic of China, on the third day after its declaration. This does not mean that Sofia will automatically win Trump’s friendship, but the US administration will certainly be suspicious of countries with close ties to China or accepting Chinese investments.
Russia. Chinese experts hope that Trump can influence Ukraine to negotiate with Mosow, while the rest of the world hopes that Trump will ask Xi Jinping to influence Putin to sit at the negotiating table. The continuation of financial sanctions against Russia could further complicate trade between Russia and China. Chinese officials strictly observe financial sanctions against Russia. One reason is that they are very afraid of secondary sanctions (they have reason to be afraid, since their children and assets are in the US).
Regarding the Taiwan issue – war should not be expected, but provocations by the US are possible to put China under pressure if it is not willing to compromise with Washington. The Trump camp points out that while Ukraine and Israel spend a lot on defense, Taiwan spends only 2.5% of its GDP on defense. The US will continue to sell the island old weapons. But Washington recognizes the “one China” principle and has no political will to change Taiwan’s status. The US wants to balance the game and is not ready for a major war.
Middle East. Trump can contain Netanyahu, but the question is at what cost. He nominated Mike Huckabee as the next US ambassador to Israel, who is a big supporter of settlers (not just Israel) and is a defender of the position that Palestine does not exist. The forecast is that tensions in the region will grow and reconciliation will not happen.
