Thewesternbalkans.
A court in Bosnia and Herzegovina today sentenced Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik to one year in prison and a six-year ban from holding official or political office for disobeying UN High Representative Christian Schmidt, several media outlets reported.
Amid the verdict, a large-scale rally in support of Dodik was held in Banja Luka, and a military contingent from interested parties was deployed to the region.
Following the court’s ruling in Sarajevo, Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik addressed those gathered in front of the Assembly building in Banja Luka and said there was no reason for concern.
The Republika Srpska Assembly is expected to make several important decisions, including a ban on the execution of decisions of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the activities of the Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the security agency SIPA on the territory of Republika Srpska. Representatives of Republika Srpska consider all decisions of bodies similar to the BiH court that have convicted Dodik invalid. They consider it pointless to participate in the work of the BiH Parliamentary Assembly until the Constitutional Court issues a decision determining who exactly is the legislator in the country.
Just before Milorad Dodik’s verdict, Christian Schmidt met with NATO Commander in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brigadier General Matthew Wallace. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić convened today a meeting of the country’s National Security Council in Belgrade, after which he is expected to leave for Banja Luka.
According to social media, Turkish EUFOR forces were deployed in Srebrenica, and anti-terrorist police arrived from Hungary in Republika Srpska. A British plane that took off from Sarajevo was spotted over Banja Luka. The Albanian army is also preparing for unrest in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Today in Belgrade, the Ambassador of the Russian Federation met with the President and Minister of Defense of Serbia. It is not known whether this is related to the events in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Comment: So far, the events in Bosnia and Herzegovina after the verdict against Dodik are developing as expected: deepening of the constitutional crisis in the country, strong disintegration processes related to the alienation of Republika Srpska, readiness for the intervention of international factors in the event of further escalation of the situation. However, a loss of control over the situation in BiH by the international forces is not expected. The verdict (which is not final) was not as harsh as expected and can be appealed, which will buy a lot of time. The director of the Official Gazette, who was tried together with Dodik, was acquitted. There are already calls for the new American president to take up the task of resolving the situation, and Moscow is currently interested in talking to Washington, not supporting radical measures by Banja Luka, the most extreme of which is the declaration of independence of Republika Srpska, which could have irreversible consequences for the region, including armed conflict.
