Thewesternbalkans.
Challenges to Enlargement
The Munich Security Conference highlighted that EU enlargement cannot be seen in isolation from political developments in the US. The US Vice President criticized democracy in the EU while Europe faces serious security and economic risks. In this context, the most logical thing would be for the Union to maintain its unity rather than focus on enlargement. However, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Enlargement Commissioner Marta Coss are pushing for an acceleration of the process.
Enlargement as part of Europe’s security
Enlargement is now seen as a geopolitical necessity, not just a bureaucratic process. The main idea is that enlargement is a key element of Europe’s security guarantees. Despite Brussels’ efforts to impose a “merits-based” approach, the political dimension of the process is no less important, meaning that no major steps can happen without the will of the member states. Even technically, none of the Western Balkan countries, except perhaps Montenegro, is in a position to meet the membership criteria in the next three years.
Redefining enlargement process
Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama has proposed a new model of integration in which the Western Balkan countries could be included in the single market, even without having the right to vote in the European Council. Rama has expressed the opinion that the merit-based approach should apply to only one thing – the right to vote in the European Council. But at the same time, all countries that are outside the EU can be included in the single market. With a new concept of the continent, this process could be significantly accelerated and focused more on how to integrate this part of Europe. After all, the continent as a whole (excluding Russia) has a population of 700 million, which is a huge market. And the Western Balkans should be seen as a technopark of Europe and have a future similar to Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and other countries in which Western companies have made investments, brought many dividends to the EU and helped these countries develop at an impressive speed.
Gradual enlargement
The idea of gradual integration is not new, but it is becoming increasingly relevant. The stagnation in the accession process of the Western Balkan countries forced the European Commission to revise the accession methodology in the autumn of 2021. Since then, the need to adapt the EU enlargement policy has become increasingly clear. The geopolitical imperative for EU enlargement, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine, has prompted numerous proposals to redefine the enlargement process, which is becoming a key issue for the future of Europe.
Gradual integration[1] is becoming a realistic alternative and is being increasingly considered in countries that are more skeptical of enlargement, such as the Netherlands, Spain or France.
A wide range of specialists propose different models, such as gradual integration with a consolidation period[2] or the phased accession template[3].
Gradual accession should provide a model that charts a predictable path forward for all current and future candidates for membership, in parallel with internal reforms aimed at the smooth functioning of the enlarged EU.
Gradual integration implies accession in stages, with each reform in the candidate country providing access to increased European funds and access to relevant programmes and institutions. It is envisaged that a period of consolidation and a probationary period will be established before full accession. This pragmatic approach will engage candidates on a concrete path with tangible and progressive benefits in line with the reforms.
Gradual integration can maintain the momentum of geopolitical enlargement, stimulate reforms and create economic opportunities for candidates and the EU. In this regard, the EU is considering initiatives that allow candidate countries to gradually integrate in areas such as transport and labour mobility in exchange for reforms[4].
Financial assistance and democracy problems
The basis for strengthening reforms under the revised enlargement methodology is sanctions and incentives. The main instrument for this is the Western Balkans Growth Plan, which, however, does not guarantee that the countries will integrate into any area of the European Single Market in the near future. Of the total of €6 billion, €2 billion are grants and €4 billion are loans on favorable terms. The disbursement of the money will depend on the fulfillment of certain requirements, but formally these conditions are not consistent with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy. It is therefore paradoxical that the most money (1.6 billion euros) is allocated to Serbia, which is the only country with about 50% alignment with the CFSP and is therefore the least willing to implement common standards and values. However, the European Commission is very moderate regarding the retreat from democracy in some countries, such as Serbia.
Is there a deadline for enlargement?
In 2022, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis proposed 2033 as the deadline for the accession of the Western Balkans. In December 2024, Charles Michel (then President of the European Council) spoke of 2030 as a potential date for the next enlargement. However, the current President António Costa has not commented on specific deadlines.
The Balkans: a resource or a burden for the EU?
Edi Rama spoke out against the excessive number of regulations in the EU and their avalanche-like growth, which brings more difficulties for the business. According to him, enlargement is not just a charitable act of the richest to the poorest on the continent, but an economic necessity for the Union. His personal conviction is that today the EU needs countries outside the union more than they need it. Because these countries are used to surviving. In order for the EU to emerge from the crisis, it must be more united and economically competitive. And the Western Balkans provide the union with an opportunity for investment, for innovation, for expanding the European economic horizon. If Europe does not seize this opportunity, it will remain stagnant.
[1] https://institutdelors.eu/publications/pour-une-adhesion-graduelle-a-lunion-europeenne/
[2] https://www.robert-schuman.eu/fr/questions-d-europe/744-l-union-europeenne-elargie-de-27-a-36-membres-pour-un-agenda-2030
[3] https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/16/rapports/cion_afetr/l16b1526_rapport-fond
[4] https://www.clingendael.org/publication/gradual-integration-candidate-countries-european-union
