Thewesternbalkans
There are eight approved candidates for membership of the European Union:
Turkiye, Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Northern Republic of Macedonia, Ukraine and Moldova.
Kosovo(whose independence is not recognised by five EU member states) and Georgia formally submitted applications for membership in 2022 and are considered potential candidates by the European Union.
Montenegro and Serbia, the most advanced candidates, are expected to join earlier than the others. Due to multiple factors, talks with Turkiye are at an effective standstill.
The accession criteria are included in the Copenhagen criteria, agreed in 1993, and the Treaty of Maastricht (Article 49). Article 49 of the Maastricht Treaty (as amended) says that any “European state” that respects the “principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law”, may apply to join the EU. Whether a country is European or not is subject of a political assessment by the EU institutions.
Norway, Switzerland and Iceland have submitted membership applications in the past but subsequently frozen or withdrawn them, while the United Kingdom has left the Union after the Brexit on 2020
Today, Switzerland, Iceland, as well as Liechtenstein, participate in the EU Single Market and also in the Schengen Area, which makes them closely aligned with the EU; none, however, are in the EU Customs Union.
Following the European Commission assessment, the present enlargement agenda of the European Union regards three distinct groups of states:
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia.
- Association Trio: Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.
- Turkiy
The 2003 European Council summit in Thessaloniki set the integration of the Western Balkans as a priority of EU expansion. This commitment was made in order to stabilise the region in the wake of the Yugoslav Wars, a series of ethnic wars through the 1990s that led to the break-up of Yugoslavia.
Slovenia was the first former Yugoslav country to join the EU in 2004, followed by Croatia in 2013.
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Republic of North Macedonia, and Serbia have all been officially granted candidate status. Kosovo, which is claimed by Serbia and not recognised by 5 EU states, applied on 14 December 2022 and is considered a potential candidate by the European Union.
The European Council had endorsed starting negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia on 26 March 2020, however, the negotiation process was blocked by Bulgaria for over two years. In June 2022 French President Emmanuel Macron submitted a compromise proposal which, if adopted by both countries, would pave the way for the immediate adoption of negotiating frameworks for North Macedonia and Albania by the EU Council and for the organization of intergovernmental conferences with them. On 24 June 2022, Bulgaria’s parliament approved the revised French proposal to lift the country’s veto on opening EU accession talks with North Macedonia, with the Assembly of North Macedonia also doing so on 16 July 2022 allowing accession negotiations to begin. On the same day, the start of negotiations was set for 19 July 2022.
The Berlin Process.
It started with the 2014 Berlin Conference, the Berlin Process was initiated in order to consolidate and maintain the dynamics of the EU integration of the Western Balkan countries.
The documents of the Berlin Process say that it is aimed to revitalise the multilateral ties between EU candidate and potential candidate countries of the former Yugoslavia and Albania and selected EU member states, and to improve regional cooperation in those countries on the issues of infrastructure and economic development. It is one of the flagship diplomatic initiatives on South-east Europe of the third Merkel cabinet. It is complemented by initiatives relating to specific South-east European countries (e.g., the German-British diplomatic initiative for Bosnia and Herzegovina‘s EU accession).
The initiative includes five non-EU Balkan candidates for EU membership (Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania) and a non-EU Balkan potential candidate (Kosovo), some EU members, i.e.: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, France,Greece, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Slovenia[2] and one additional non-EU country, the United Kingdom.
During the last summit in Tirana, the European Council President Charles Michel has stated that “the enlargement is an investment in peace and prosperity, both for the EU and for the future member states, and it is time to keep the promise, and to reenergise the process. The countries in the region, must deliver on their commitments – starting with the necessary reforms. And in the EU, there are need to prepare to welcome new members. Both sides must be ready – on– by 2030 to enlarge.”
However, even the new proposed goal, seven years away, has been met with skepticism in both the region and Brussels.
Speaking at the same forum, Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama welcomed Michel’s call for enlargement but urged for “tangible steps forward, especially in areas like funding for infrastructure and more access to the EU market”.
But if in the region the date seems too far off, in Brussels it might be seen as too close. The European Commission appeared to dismiss the European Council president’s proposed 2030 timeline for EU enlargement. The focus of the European Commission is “collaboration with candidate countries rather than adhering to a specific date”.
Coinciding with Michel’s remarks, French President Emmanuel Macron floated the idea of a “multi-speed” EU approach for candidate countries seeking accession.
EU enlargement – last developments.
On 8 of November 2023, the European Commission adopted the 2023 Enlargement Package, providing a detailed assessment of the state of play and the progress made by Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Türkiye, and for the first time also Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova and Georgia on their respective paths towards accession to the European Union.
In particular, the report focuses on the progress in the implementation of fundamental reforms, as well as on providing clear guidance on the reform priorities ahead. “Accession is and will remain a merit-based process, fully dependent on the objective progress achieved by each country” the report said.
The main conclusions and recommendations of the European Commission are:
“In light of the results achieved by Ukraine and Moldova, and of the ongoing reform efforts, the Commission has recommended that the Council opens accession negotiations with both countries. Furthermore, the Commission recommends that Council adopts the negotiating frameworks once Ukraine and Moldova have adopted certain key measures. The Commission stands ready to report to Council by March 2024 on the progress relating to these measures”.
In the case of Georgia, in light of the results achieved, the Commission “recommends that the Council grants Georgia the status of a candidate country on the understanding that a number of steps are taken”.
Turkiye. “There are serious deficiencies in the functioning of Türkiye’s democratic institutions. Democratic backsliding continued during the reporting period. Structural deficiencies in the presidential system remained in place” Commission said.
The Commission recommends “the opening of accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina once the necessary degree of compliance with the membership criteria is achieved. The country needs to apply further efforts to fulfil the key priorities set out in the Commission Opinion on its EU membership application. The Commission will continuously monitor the progress and compliance in all areas related to the opening of negotiations and report to the Council at the latest in March 2024”.
The European Commission assessed “the progress on EU accession reforms has largely stalled, as Montenegro has suffered from deep polarisation and political instability in the reporting period. Overall, progress is in the accession negotiations will depend on reforms in the area of rule of law (i.e. meeting the interim benchmarks set out in Chapters 23 and 24). Montenegro continues to fully align with the Common Foreign Security Policy”.
“Serbia continued the implementation of EU accession related reforms, including in the area of rule of law. Serbia started implementing the 2022 constitutional amendments to strengthen the independence of the judiciary and adopted new media legislation. The implementation of the latter can significantly improve the regulatory environment. However, further amendments will be needed to be fully in line with the EU acquis and European standards. Serbia needs to improve, as a matter of priority, its alignment with the EU’s common foreign and security policy, including restrictive measures and statements on Russia. Further work and political commitment are also needed to implement reforms in the area of rule of law. The Commission’s assessment remains that Serbia has technically fulfilled the benchmarks to open cluster 3 (competitiveness and inclusive growth). Serbia must fully cooperate and take all the necessary steps to ensure accountability for the violent attack on Kosovo Police of 24 September and the attack on KFOR on 29 May. On the normalisation of relations with Kosovo, whilst an Agreement was reached in the EU-facilitated Dialogue, both Serbia and Kosovo are yet to start the implementation of their respective obligations, which are binding for the Parties and a key part of their European paths” the Commission sad.
Conclusions for North Macedonia are, that “the authorities have consistently stated that EU accession remains their strategic goal. North Macedonia has continued to fully align with the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). The country has also made some progress in in the area of justice, freedom and security, including the fight against organised crime and the management of migration. As a negotiating country, North Macedonia needs to deliver on the implementation of EU related reforms, including in the judiciary, the fight against corruption and organised crime, public administration reform, including management of public finances, and public procurement. North Macedonia has committed to launch and achieve the relevant constitutional changes as a matter of priority, with a view to include citizens who are part of other people. The screening process of the EU acquis has progressed smoothly, and the authorities have shown a high level of commitment. The Commission presented to Council the screening reports on the “fundamentals cluster” for North Macedonia in July and looks forward to a swift follow up, with a view to opening negotiations on this cluster by the end of the year”.
Albania continued to demonstrate its determination to implement EU reforms and to make progress in reforms under the “fundamentals cluster”. Continued full alignment with EU’s CFSP was also a strong signal of the country’s strategic choice of EU accession. Further efforts are needed on freedom of expression, minority issues and property rights, as well as in key areas of the rule of law, such as the fight against corruption and organised crime. The screening process of the EU acquis has progressed smoothly, and the authorities have shown a high level of commitment. The Commission presented to Council the screening reports on the “fundamentals cluster” for Albania in July and looks forward to a swift follow up. It aims to open accession negotiations on cluster 1 (fundamentals) by the end of the year.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, last year’s candidate status brought a much-needed positive dynamic. A new government has been set up swiftly after elections and has started to deliver on reforms, specifically through the amendments introducing integrity checks in the judiciary. Yet, further efforts are needed. This includes adopting important rule of law and judicial reforms and moving forward with constitutional and electoral reforms, which are of utmost priority to ensure equal rights for all citizens. It is also important to preserve the constitutional order of the country. The secessionist and authoritarian measures introduced in the Republika Srpska entity are not in line with the EU path. Further efforts are required for Bosnia and Herzegovina to fulfil the key priorities set out in the Commission’s Opinion on its member application. Therefore, the Commission recommends the opening of EU accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, once the necessary degree of compliance with the membership criteria is achieved.
Kosovo remained committed to its European path. It continued to voluntarily fully align with the EU’s CFSP, including on condemnation of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and to adopt restrictive measures against it. The reporting period witnessed legislative achievements, including an important electoral reform. However, more work needs to be done, including on the action plan on justice reforms. On 1 January 2024, visa liberalisation for Kosovo will enter into force. The situation in the north of Kosovo has been affected by several crises, the latest one being the violent attack against Kosovo police on 24 September 2023. On the normalisation of relations with Serbia, whilst an Agreement was reached in the EU-facilitated Dialogue, both Kosovo and Serbia are yet to start the implementation of their respective obligations, which are binding for the Parties and a key part of their European paths.
Comments:
After twenty years, the Western Balkans have still not joined the European Union. Sometimes it even seems that EU membership has become less attractive for the region than it was two decades ago. With the world and the EU facing a series of crises in the past two decades, the Union’s appetite for enlargement has waned. At the same time, some Western Balkan countries showed limited political will to implement much-needed EU reforms, giving EU enlargement skeptics arguments against their integration. In general, the enlargement process has proceeded at a slower pace and with less visible and tangible results than expected, leading to disillusionment and departure from the EU. The Union and the Western Balkans – wittingly or unwittingly – found an unsatisfactory modus vivendi.
However, since Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, EU membership has become an even more attractive goal for the Eastern Partnership countries – Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. At the same time, the countries of the Western Balkans are facing unprecedented challenges to their stability as well as amplified foreign policy dilemmas. There is also growing awareness of a new window of opportunity for enlargement, raising expectations vis-à-vis the EU.
The EU is now approaching enlargement from a more geostrategic and less bureaucratic perspective than before. Last year’s decision to grant candidate status to Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the proposal to start accession negotiations, were based on strategic considerations.
There is a growing recognition that enlargement policy is the EU’s most powerful stabilizing instrument. That said, the EU’s new strategic approach will not lower the standards of enlargement. Full implementation of the reform remains essential.
In fact, some concrete steps should be taken without any further delay.
First, the European Union has to open EU membership negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina by the end of this year.
Second, Montenegro must continue its path of reform in the EU, after formation of the new government in the country.
Thirdly, the negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia must be advanced. In North Macedonia, the next steps depend on the country’s ability to pass the necessary constitutional changes. The latest case is a reminder that EU member states and Western Balkan countries must play a responsible role and refrain from the presentation of bilateral problems and disputes, which are not related to the accession process.
The most important think: The readiness of the Union to enlarge. And it depends of the reforms in the Union, especially the ability to take decisions on the foreign and security policy without having the power of one single country to to exercise his right of veto and block any development on the matter. It is also very important to take the right decision on the enlargement to Turkiye.
