Thewesternbalkans
During the last Conference of the EU ambassadors, on 6 of November 2023, the Vice President of the European Commission and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borel made an assessment of the main challenges and threats for the EU.
The most important conclusion is that Europe is in danger and facing a lot of great challenges. There is an explosion of violence and rivalry, together with the climate and ecological crisis which aggravate the security risks with countries in the region.
More and more, the world is characterised by greater multipolarity and less multilateralism.
In strategic terms, The EU has to cope with two big superpowers– the United States and China. When China opened to the world in the middle of the seventies, it represented 1% of the United States’ GDP. Today, it is 80%.
But there are also other poles. In fact, there are maybe a dozen of poles which are strong and indispensable regional actors – and the EU is one of them. EU is in an intermediate position – not a full-fledged great power because the EU is neither a military alliance nor even a state. But EU is much more than a regional power. Certainly, this description is oversimplified, but it is clear that the plurality of different actors increases the entropy of the system. And it has an impact on multilateralism, which is weakened due to the lack of global consensus on values and interests.
On the other side, the United Nations where the United Nations Security Council is unable to reach any kind of agreement, and then they go to UNGA [United Nations General Assembly] and then UNGA bypasses the vetoes of the Security Council, and then these decisions are rarely implemented, because they are not binding. And even the UN Security Council resolutions are not implemented.
The EU has to reaffirm its support to the United Nations and to the Secretary-General António Guterres, who is making huge efforts on all fronts.
EU is not the outpost of the Western world. The EU is the keeper of global and shared values based on the United Nations Charter. This is the Alpha and Omega of the EU International policy.
Mr. Boreal made an assessment of the situation in the Middle East”: “Now the most burning issue, which is the explosion of violence since the 7th of October 2023. This was a moment that was going to determine the future for decades and the EU is in an inflexion point in the history. The unfolding tragedy in the Middle East is the outcome of a collective political and moral failure, which the Israeli and the Palestinian people are paying a high price due to a real lack of willingness to solve the Israeli-Palestinian problem”.
The International Community committed formally on the Two-State solution but without having any credible roadmap to achieve it. The substance of the Israeli-Palestinian problem is not religious nor ethnic, it is a national problem. It is the problem of two people who have the equivalent right to exist on the same land. So, they need to share this land.
And the problem is that today, there is not have any kind of agreement on the terms of the ‘sharing’.
In Israel, the colonisation of the West Bank has been progressing with impunity and violence against the Palestinians – and this has become even more brutal after the 7th of October. Thirty years ago, there were 270,000 settlers in the West Bank. Now there are 700, 000, almost three times more.
In Palestine, the total lack of perspective and diabolic calculations aiming at favoring extremist forces have led to the marginalisation of moderate forces to the benefit of radical forces inaudible.
The main position of the EU is that there is no successful military operation without a political strategy behind. The military strategy of Israel has also to abide to international law, including the law that seeks to avoid, to every extent possible, the death and suffering of civilian populations.
What the EU has to do? Main conclusions of Mr. Boreal are: First, the Europeans, have the moral and political obligation to be involved. Not only by providing aid, but by contributing to a durable solution on the basis of European experience in state-building The capacity to contribute to a political solution will be a major test for the EU’s credibility.
Second, In the short term, the first priority is to bring peace to violence.
The right to selfdefense has to be performed in accordance with international law as the European Council has stated.
The EU has three responsibilities. First – EU must continue sticking to a firm but balanced position, and to avoid importing in Europe this conflict at all costs.
The second element is the humanitarian solution. The violence has to recede and that international humanitarian law be respected. From this perspective, a humanitarian pause counterbalanced by access to hostages by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), as a first step to their release is an initiative on which EU should work.
A massive increase in humanitarian support, the evacuation of third country nationals from Gaza, a proportionate Israeli response – all of that is necessary, as necessary it is to keep channels of communication open with Israel, with the Palestinian Authority, with Qatar, with Egypt, with Saudi Arabia, and of course the United States and the United Nations.
Third – the important thing is to work about a comprehensive and definitive settlement which is clearly out of reach today. Today it is out of reach, but on the modalities of a political process involving Israel, the Palestinian Authority, the Arab States, the European Union, Turkey, the United States and Norway, who has been playing an essential role in the past.
The conclusions of Mr. Borel for Ukraine are as follow: “More than ever, Ukraine is in a struggle to fight against the Russian aggression. If Ukraine loses, EU loses. The EU needs to keep unanimity and unity in supporting Ukraine. The EU is the first provider of support to Ukraine, more than the United States.
The prospect of membership, the development of a substantial economic and financial assistance programme, military aid through the European Peace Facility and bilateral channels, the provision of security guarantees are essential components of the EU assistance.
EU continue to condemn in the strongest possible terms Russia’s ongoing aggression, and commit to standing by Ukraine for as long as it takes, while increasing economic pressure and imposing robust sanctions and other restrictions against Russia. A just and lasting peace cannot be realized without the immediate, complete, and unconditional withdrawal of Russia’s troops and military equipment from the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine. EU continues to support Ukraine in further developing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula. EU is increasing its efforts to help Ukraine meet its winter preparedness needs, including by continuing to provide critical energy assistance.
EU strongly supports the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) continued presence and unfettered access at all of Ukraine’s civil nuclear sites. EU will reinforce the coordination on sanctions to restrict Russia’s access to critical goods and technology.
EU will accelerate consultation on energy, metals, and all non-industrial diamonds, including those mined, processed or produced in Russia.
Russia must cease its aggression and must bear the legal consequences of all its internationally wrongful acts, including compensation for the damage caused to Ukraine. EU is united in its determination to ensure full accountability. EU reiterates its commitment to holding those responsible to account consistent with international law, including by supporting the efforts of international mechanisms, such as the International Criminal Court.
EU is commited to address the growing needs of vulnerable countries and populations impacted by Russia’s aggression. Russia’s weaponization of food has compounded economic vulnerabilities, exacerbated already dire humanitarian crises, and escalated global food insecurity and malnutrition worldwide.
The crisis in the Middle East is already having a lasting impact on the EU policy in Ukraine. There is a concern that the international support for Ukraine may erode in the light of what is being seen as the practice of double standards”.
Ukraine has become as a new candidate and it is pushing the queue of the former candidates who were waiting for years. And the whole queue will move.
The HR and VP of the EC, made following conclusions on China: “The EU has five key messages, determinate by the European Union Council, which should guide the policy towards China:
First, EU has not any desire to block China’s rise or to engage in a strategic competition with it. In the same time EU has not any difficulty in clarifying its position on Taiwan to Beijing. The EU will continue developing multifaceted ties with Taiwan, and not implys recognition of Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Second, EU remains firm on the idea of systemic rivalry with China in some things because they defend different socio-political systems.
Third. EU needs to make China understand that it will be difficult for China to maintain its access to the European market at a time when European companies are finding it increasingly difficult to work in China.
There is a gigantic trade deficit between Europe and China, 400 billion dollars a year and is still growing very quickly, 60% growth in the last two years. This is largely attributable due to the very high level of public subsidies granted to Chinese companies, as well as to the ever-increasing barriers to entry into the Chinese market.
The problem is becoming more acute as China’s exports leads affecting our main industrial sectors in which we have had, traditionally, an advantage, [such as the] automotive and chemical industries.
Fourth – De-risking. The de-risking strategy is not designed to get out of China, but simply to do what China is already doing: to diversify its sources of supply and, therefore, diversify risk.
On the other side, EU needs China, and hat to increase the level of cooperation with China: its systemic weight is so great that there is no chance of solving any of the world challenges without a strong engagement from China. China is burning more coal than the rest of the world together.
Fifth – The EU not expects China to take the European position but, to engage more with Ukrainians, particularly on humanitarian aid and to convince Russia to get out from Ukraine.
The EU needs to strengthen its security policy. It has to be understood in the broader sense. Not just military. Economic security is becoming an increasingly central part of EU’s foreign and security policy. The EU has to look at the US Inflation Reduction Act’s consequences”.
Mr. Borel has confirmed that the EU is engaged to continue working for on the Enlargement, which is maybe the most important foreign policy. In the meantime, the European Political Community has to be developed.
The Stategic Compass is going step by step, advancing. It was held the first military exercise among European Union armies, out of the NATO framework, in Spain, the other day. Almost 3 000 soldiers from nine European Union countries. This is the Rapid Deployment Capacity in the making, and it will happen.
The second transversal thing is the relationship with the Global South. Global South – this is a complex set of people, very heterogenous with different positions. This is a concept that has been brought to the public debate. And now, the feeling is that it is over the world domination of the West for the last 500 years. In the EU understand that it is over, intellectually. And the EU has not taken yet the consequences and the practical conclusions of this new reality.
The majority of the countries have condemned the Russian aggression against Ukraine. But they have been doing lip service. The European sanctions have not been followed by many. And the current Israel-Palestinian conflict will increase the accusations of European double standards.
A large number of countries in the Global South see in Ukraine not a global issue, but a regional problem, which affects Europe and the United States – the Western world. And they will take advantage of the crisis in the Middle East to underscore what they see as a contradiction in the EU positioning or even a contradiction among Europeans.
There are two things that have to be taken into account when there is a talk about resentment against the West. One is the pandemic, and the other is climate change.
When you have a look at the graph of the number of vaccinations across the time since the pandemic started you will see that in October 2021, he high-income countries had 1.4 doses per head. For the inhabitant of a low-income country, they had 30 times less, 0.04.
The second thing is climate change. The EU is responsible for almost 25% of the cumulated global CO2 emissions.
Africa, where there are three times more people than here, is responsible for 3%. And South America is responsible for 3%.
On the other side there are 600 million people in Africa that have never seen an electric light bulb. It is impossible to tell them that they have to be green and digital. Their priorities are different. For the future, the EU should estimate Africa as a land of opportunities and where humankind will be growing and to be more active in Africa.
Comments: It is difficult to assess the foreign and security policy of the EU only through the prism of recent developments. It depends on both the collective decisions and the sovereign decisions of the member states. Something that countries like France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands are trying to change in the EU Treaty. The right of veto of individual member states on issues of foreign and security policy remains one of the major problems of the EU, especially related to the future enlargement of the Union. At the same time, the procedures for changing this are very difficult and require consensus in the EU. This makes it unlikely that countries such as Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia will give up their veto powers and accept changes to the EU’s basic treaty.
Another important element in the EU’s foreign and security policy is the strong trans-Atlantic element and the enormous influence of the US on EU foreign and especially security policy. In the Strategic Compass of the EU on security issues, the EU is quite clearly placed in a subordinate position. And this subordination developed and became largely irreversible in the medium term after the start of the war in Ukraine. The EU had two options – to arm the Ukrainian army and support the Ukrainian economy, which is the geopolitical on. Or to direct the huge funds to the creation of a real military force within the EU to guarantee its security. In Brussels, and in the capitals of the member states, they chose the first option. Relations with China are also not at the level they could be. The consequences of the failed agreement between the EU and China on economic cooperation and investment are already there.
Regarding the policy of the EU towards the conflict in the Middle East, it should be noted that it has become an important priority of the EU, but it cannot replace the war in Ukraine in terms of importance and geopolitical charge. In the positions of the EU on the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the support for Israel is clearly expressed, but the desire to prevent this conflict from being transferred to the territory of the EU is even more important.
The policy towards the Global South has not yet produced any results, regardless of the already huge amounts of money invested in the black continent.
