Thewesternbalkans
The visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Serbia (May 7-8, 2024) vividly demonstrated the achievements in bilateral relations over the past 15 years. China is the largest individual investor in Serbia and the second largest trading partner after the EU. For Serbia, China is a key partner in building the necessary infrastructure.
The visit of the Chinese president to Belgrade is the second in the last eight years. In 2016, Serbia became the first comprehensive strategic partner of China in Central and Eastern Europe, and now Serbia has become the first European country to build a community with a shared future with China. The two presidents, Xi Jinping and Alexander Vučić, signed a Joint Statement on Deepening and Elevating the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and Building a China-Serbia Community with a Shared Future in the New Era. One of the key points in the document is that China and Serbia jointly reject hegemonism and power politics, and oppose bloc politics or bloc confrontation.
The Chinese readout about the bilateral dialogue between Xi and Vučić says that the bilateral relationship “has become an example for China’s friendly relations with other European countries”. “China will stand shoulder to shoulder with Serbia, share weal and woe like passengers in the same boat, carry forward the spirit of the ironclad friendship, maintain and grow their friendship, and jointly safeguard fundamental and long-term interests of the two countries.”
In that way, Serbia has endorsed a key element of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s global vision. The adoption of the concept of a “community with a shared future” from Serbia is a historical breakthrough for Beijing in Europe. Xi first announced his concept over 10 years ago which is often seen as a challenge to the existing US-led global order.
Xi Jinping’s European tour is perfectly planned in terms of geopolitical choice of destination and time: France – one of the most powerful members of the EU and the nuclear power of the Union; Hungary – an EU member positioned between the EU and eastern autocracy; Serbia – candidate for membership in the EU. The timing is also of great importance – after the formation of the new government in Serbia, celebration of the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, the eve of the EU parliamentary elections. For the new Serbian government, in which there are prominent pro-Russian figures, the visit of the Chinese leader is the first major foreign policy success, which should soften the effect of the prepared blows against Serbia – the UN resolution on the genocide in Srebrenica and the admission of Kosovo to the Council of Europe.
In addition to the political agreements between Serbia and China, there were a bunch of agreements on BRI, green development, digital economy, e-commerce, infrastructure, economic and technical cooperation, information and communication, agri-food, and the media. After the signing of the new agreements, in practice, Serbia can hardly offer China any other new major project, and it seems that everything is already agreed between the two countries.
The visit reinforces Serbia’s position as a major Chinese partner in the Western Balkans and increases support for Serbia as a Chinese hub for entry into Europe.
Xi’s stop in Serbia is awash with symbolism, especially his participation in the celebration of the 25th anniversary of the NATO missile strike against the Chinese embassy in Belgrade on the night of May 7, 1999, which killed three Chinese journalists. The anti-American symbolism of Xi’s actions demonstrates the uncompromising nature of Beijing’s approach to the current US administration, as well as China’s negativity towards NATO and the system of governance established after the fall of the Berlin Wall. This act is a message to the peoples of Serbia and Eastern Europe that the Western world does not bring them good. Just as Serbia does not forget the NATO intervention, so China seeks to remind about the shelling of its embassy. China’s high-profile participation in the commemoration is a warning to the US that nothing is forgotten and no one is forgotten, along the lines of Russia’s famous World War II commemoration narrative.
The incident in Belgrade on May 7, 1999 is a constant narrative for Chinese officials, regarding the issue of souverenity, which is so crucial for Beijing. In an opinion piece by Xi, published in the Serbian newspaper “Politika” ahead of his arrival in Belgrade, he said “we will never allow such tragic history to repeat itself”, which is a clear warning to the US regarding a possible military incident related to Taiwan.
Along with the main goal of the European visit of the Chinese president – improving the deteriorated relations with the EU, it also aims to perform other tasks: to increase the Chinese influence in Central and Eastern Europe and to create a small group of friendly countries that are challenging to the US. Beijing is implementing its tested divide-and-conquer policy, offering bilateral benefits to individual countries and exploiting some weaknesses in Europe’s integration processes. China’s approach involves a balance between aggressive economic incursion and public diplomacy.
Serbia and Hungary maintain a cooperation format with China that bypasses the EU. They are key Eastern European countries in China’s efforts to weaken Europe’s de-risking policy from China.
Xi’s visit to Eastern Europe immediately sparked sharp Western reactions about the possibility of formation of an anti-Western axis under the auspices of China: Xi-Orban-Vučić-Putin, ahead of Putin’s visit to China on May 15.
We should also expect an increase in Western criticism against the lack of transparency in the implementation of infrastructure projects with Chinese participation and the negative impact on the environment of the activities of Chinese companies in Serbia and Hungary.
While most Serbs do not question the pro-European orientation of their country, they are increasingly placed in a situation of choosing between America and China. Xi Jinping’s visit could mark the beginning of a geopolitical reorientation of Serbia if major European countries punish Serbia too harshly for its proximity to Russia and China.
