Thewesternbalkans
It is too early to determine to what extent the new government in the Republic of North Macedonia (RNM) will be tied to the European path of development. The first signs of orientation to where (or from where) the wind is blowing in the RNM will be the reactions of the leaders of the neighboring countries and of the EU, the first external contacts and visits of the new Macedonian heads of state and government.
For the new leaders in European countries, a visit to Brussels is traditionally first priority. In her statements, the newly elected president of the RNM, Gordana Siljanovska Davkova, did not talk about the European path. “My roads first pass through the Balkans, and Brussels is not outside these roads,” she declared on May 8 after the elections, i.e. Brussels is in second place. She urged neighboring countries to support the “Balkanization”, whatever that means.
It is also symptomatic that Viktor Orbán and Aleksandar Vučić competed who will be the first to congratulate the chairman of VMRO-DPMNE Hristijan Mitskoski on the victory.
At her inauguration as president on May 12, Gordana Siljanovska Davkova did not say the word “North” when pronouncing the official name of the state, which irritated Athens, as it is a direct violation of the Prespa Agreement with Greece and the constitution of the RNM. While in Skopje this is downplayed as a matter of diplomatic protocol, for Athens the European trajectory of the PNM depends on the use of the constitutional name. Challenging the international treaties (with Bulgaria and Greece) and insisting on interpreting the negotiating framework in a different way than what the EU says are the main symptoms of Skopje moving away from the European path or unwillingness to join the EU without saying so explicitly. Thus, RNM is gradually entering a scenario that brings it closer to Serbia, Russia and China.
The reactions of Albania and Kosovo are not so unambiguous. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, who supported the DUI, which has gained supremacy within the Albanian bloc in the RNM, has no reason to rejoice, as this party will most likely remain in opposition. Invited to take part in the government, the second largest Albanian coalition VLEN, supported by Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, will not have much influence in the decision-making process in Skopje.
The landslide victory of VMRO-DPMNE (the biggest electoral victory of a single party since the establishment of the multi-party system in the country), which together with Maksim Dimitrievski’s Znam movement will have 64 deputies from the 120-seat parliament, significantly reducing the possibility of a likely Albanian partner in the coalition to influence the government as strongly as DUI has influenced it in the last 20 years.
Due to its comfortable majority, VMRO-DPMNE will not have such a great need for the support of the Albanians, whose influence will be minimized. The possibility of external Albanian intervention – of Edi Rama through DUI and of Albin Kurti through VLEN – is also limited.
In order to legitimize his power and give a multi-ethnic character to the government, the most likely future Prime Minister Mickoski will include the Albanian formation VLEN in the government pro forma. This coalition partner may also be useful to him in fulfilling his campaign promise to investigate “the criminals from DUI”.
However, with the reduction of the Albanian influence on the governance in the RNM, the pressure for a categorical and immediate implementation of the EU’s condition for a change in the constitution will be limited. Thus, the European path of the RNM may sink into a fog.
Tirana’s reaction and its opportunities to influence the RNM through the Albanian ethnos are important, as Brussels is pushing for the European integration of Albania and the RNM as a package. Albanians in the Western Balkans are the biggest supporters of the European integration, as they see it as an opportunity to unify the Albanian ethnic group.
The Albanian bloc is not monolithic and the split within it seems to be deepening. It is no secret that in this part of the Balkans, there is a silent battle between Kurti and Rama about who is the main “decision maker” on Albanian issues. Serbia benefits the most from this, whose political and economic role in the RNM has been massively increasing in recent years. Playing with the pro-Serbian sentiment of the Macedonians has been characteristic of VMRO since Gruevski’s time. However, Serbomania in the RNM is now reaching unprecedented levels even compared to the time of the former Yugoslavia.
The leader of VMRO Mickoski is known for his good connections on the Skopje-Belgrade-Budapest axe. It is expected that the bilateral relations of the RNM with Serbia will be sharply activated. The Democratic Party of the Serbs in Macedonia has an agreement with VMRO to participate in Mickoski’s government. There are plans to include the Macedonian economy in the project for the specialized Expo 2027 in Serbia, designated by Xi Jinping during his recent visit to Belgrade as a priority for China’s assistance in the “building of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era”.
It will be symptomatic whether the new government will support VLEN’s request to withdraw RNM from the Open Balkans project, which is increasingly identified with the “Serbian World” project after the Albania’s withdrawal from Open Balkans.
The first public statements of the newly elected president Gordana Siljanovska Davkova show that she is still on an emotional wave and has not stepped out of the shoes of a university professor, who suddenly found herself at the top of the state, especially as a woman – commander-in-chief of the RNM Armed Forces. Although Davkova was elected in direct popular elections, Mickoski is the one who will make the decisions in the state, including on the priority issue of European integration.
According to diplomatic sources in the region familiar with the topic, Mickoski has declared several times that he is not against changes in the constitution and the inclusion of Bulgarians as a state creating element in it. However, in order to save face in front of his voters, he needs some kind of written guarantees that Bulgaria will not make new demands or a new veto. I.e. the European Commission will be on the move again. Mickoski has correctly calculated his move, since a competent new EC will be in place only after September of this year, after the European elections and after the summer vacation. In his actions, Mickoski is fully supported by his future coalition partners Taravari from VLEN and Dimitrievski from the Znam movement. The US Embassy in Skopje, which traditionally has a strong influence on the political processes in the country, is also in direct contact with Mickosoki, according to insiders from diplomatic circles in the region. According to unconfirmed media reports, Dimitrievski is supported by the US administration. And President Gordana Siljanovska Davkova celebrated her birthday (May 11) with the US ambassador Mrs. Angela Price Aggeler. The support of the USA can be taken as a basis for predicting that the RNM leadership will accept the constitutional changes, albeit with a significant delay. Factors for the delay are also the time needed for changes in Macedonian administration and the Hungarian presidency in the second half of 2024.
The new authorities in Skopje are not expected to take major independent steps to distance the country from the EU and NATO, but there will certainly be a change in emphasis in the direction of a stronger foothold on Serbia. Mickoski will actively play the Serbian card and without expressed Euro-optimism will follow the Orban-Vučić line. The declarative reference to the European path will primarily aim to preserve the support of the Western European factor.
The new winds over the Republic of North Macedonia, which are blowing from the north, the condescending attitude of the bureaucratic structures in Brussels to the need for serious expertise on the situation in the Western Balkans and the brutal disregard of some Western politicians for the historical lessons in the region, portend a turbulent time with a forecast of a political cyclone, which is dangerous for the EU.
