Thewesternbalkans.
China’s Official Stance and Recent Developments
China continues to advocate for dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, emphasizing the need for a mutually acceptable solution. China’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, Geng Shuang, has stressed the importance of tolerance and reconciliation among all ethnic groups in Kosovo, urging the Kosovo government to create a conducive environment for such efforts.
China maintains its longstanding position of not recognizing Kosovo’s independence, citing the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Following the violent clashes between ethnic Serbs and NATO peacekeeping troops in Kosovo in May 2023, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, reaffirmed Beijing’s opposition to any unilateral actions by Kosovo’s provisional institutions and reiterated its support for Serbia’s sovereignty.
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China-Serbia Relations and Kosovo
The strengthening of China-Serbia relations further underscores China’s support for Serbia’s stance on Kosovo. In May 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić signed a joint statement to build a “China-Serbia community with a shared future,” marking a deepening partnership. President Xi emphasized China’s continued support for Serbia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity regarding the Kosovo issue.
President Vučić, following his meeting with President Xi, highlighted China’s backing of Serbia in international forums, such as Interpol and UNESCO, where Kosovo seeks membership.
Despite the absence of formal diplomatic relations, China maintains trade relations with Kosovo. The Chinese mission in Pristina has five employees, though Kosovo does not maintain a corresponding mission in China.
China’s Geopolitical Interests and Kosovo
China’s facilitation of the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement in March 2023 sparked renewed interest in its potential role as a conflict mediator. Some experts suggested that China’s Global Security Initiative could be applied to long-standing conflicts, such as the Cyprus issue or the Kosovo dispute.
China’s increasing presence in the Western Balkans, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its cooperation platform with Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), has positioned it as a key player. However, China has excluded Kosovo from its formal cooperation due to its non-recognition of Kosovo’s independence. Given its global influence and UN Security Council status, China has the potential to shape the Kosovo issue significantly should it choose to do so.
China’s opposition to Kosovo’s recognition is influenced by geopolitical developments, its relations with the West, and its strategic interests. With Russia’s resources stretched due to the war in Ukraine, China may assume a greater role in supporting Serbia’s efforts to prevent Kosovo’s international recognition.
China’s Position on Kosovo
China consistently opposes Kosovo’s independence, arguing that Kosovo’s unilateral declaration in 2008 violated international law and UN Security Council Resolution 1244, which reaffirms Serbia’s sovereignty over the region.
Additionally, China sees Kosovo’s secession as setting a dangerous precedent that could embolden separatist movements in Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang. By opposing Kosovo’s recognition, China reinforces its stance against unilateral secession and maintains its strategic alignment with Serbia.
While China has blocked Kosovo’s attempts to join international organizations such as Interpol and UNESCO, it has not led a derecognition campaign akin to Russia’s 2017-2019 efforts. This raises questions about the extent of China’s commitment to the issue.
External Factors Shaping China’s Role
- Geopolitical Rivalry with the West
Rising tensions between China and the U.S., as well as broader Western powers, could push Beijing toward a more assertive stance on Kosovo as a countermeasure against Western influence in the Balkans.
By opposing Kosovo’s statehood, China could challenge the Western-led order and undermine EU and U.S. efforts to stabilize the region.
- Strategic Partnership with Serbia
China and Serbia have deepened their economic, political, and military ties, particularly under the BRI.
Serbia’s reliance on Chinese investments and technology may further encourage China to back Serbia’s position on Kosovo.
The growing importance of China-Serbia relations could also impact Serbia’s aspirations for EU and NATO membership.
- Russia’s Decreasing Role
Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine and economic sanctions may limit its capacity to fully support Serbia’s diplomatic efforts against Kosovo.
China could step in to fill this void, becoming Serbia’s primary advocate in international forums.
- Influence in International Organizations
As a permanent UN Security Council member, China can veto any resolution favoring Kosovo’s membership in international bodies.
China’s growing role in institutions such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) could provide Serbia with alternative diplomatic platforms to oppose Kosovo’s recognition.
Internal Factors Shaping China’s Role
- Taiwan and Separatism Concerns
China views Kosovo’s independence as a precedent that could embolden separatist movements within its own borders.
By opposing Kosovo, China reinforces its position that unilateral secession must be resolved through negotiations.
- Public Perception and Nationalism
Chinese public opinion is largely pro-Serbian, fueled by narratives that draw parallels between Kosovo and Taiwan.
State-controlled media portray Kosovo as a Western-backed entity, strengthening domestic support for Beijing’s opposition.
- Xi Jinping’s Foreign Policy Doctrine
Under Xi, China has shifted towards a more assertive global posture.
If Kosovo gains geopolitical significance, China may use it as a platform to challenge Western dominance in international affairs.
Potential Future Scenarios
- Continued Passive Support for Serbia
China maintains its current approach, opposing Kosovo’s recognition but refraining from active derecognition efforts.
This scenario aligns with China’s broader strategy of prioritizing economic engagement over political entanglements.
- Increased Diplomatic and Economic Pressure
China intensifies its opposition to Kosovo by leveraging its economic influence to discourage states from recognizing Kosovo.
This mirrors China’s approach in securing Taiwan’s derecognition by some countries.
- Direct Intervention in International Organizations
China actively blocks Kosovo’s membership in global institutions and pressures key states to withdraw recognition.
This scenario would signify a more confrontational approach, particularly if China-U.S. relations deteriorate further.
Conclusion
China’s role in the Kosovo issue has remained largely diplomatic, opposing recognition without actively campaigning for derecognition. However, evolving geopolitical dynamics, Serbia’s closer ties with China, and Beijing’s broader strategic interests could drive China toward a more assertive stance.
China’s future actions will depend on its global political positioning, relations with the West, and domestic priorities. Increased involvement from China could significantly impact Kosovo’s aspirations for broader international recognition, making China’s stance an important factor in the Western Balkans’ geopolitical landscape.
