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The strategic dialogue with the US is an important tool for Balkan countries to protect security, democracy, fight against corruption and regional integration. It is also a sign of trust from Washington and an opportunity to access financial, technological and military support, as well as a signal to foreign investors.
The Autumn of Hopes
This autumn, Serbia is ready to start a strategic dialogue with the US, through which it hopes to build the framework of the strategic partnership between the two countries. However, Serbia is not the first country in the region to develop a strategic dialogue with the US.
North Macedonia has had a strategic dialogue established since June 2, 2022. It concerns the areas of defense and security, rule of law, regional initiatives, energy, and the economy. North Macedonia is the first in the region to establish and implement a strategic dialogue with the US, which brings political dividends and is a good support for European integration.
The countries with a strategic dialogue with the US in the Balkans are also Greece and Cyprus.
Slovenia also has a strategic dialogue with the US in the energy, science, defense, counter-disinformation, security sectors. Slovenia, as a member of the EU and NATO, is in a more stable position and the dialogue with the US carries few risks because it is already part of the Western countries and structure.
Montenegro currently does not have an official strategic partnership with the US, despite its membership in NATO. The President of Montenegro stated that relations with the US should be elevated to the level of a strategic partnership. An “Economic Dialogue” has also been held and a memorandum of economic cooperation has been signed. Montenegro seems to be the most likely candidate for an official strategic partnership, as it already has a significant framework for economic dialogue and memoranda with the US.
Bosnia and Herzegovina also has potential – the two countries are already in contact, and the topics on which cooperation can be expanded are clear.
Serbia is also making efforts for such a dialogue, but the balance in its course towards the EU, Russia, China and regional policy also creates pressure for maneuvers.
Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Đurić and US officials have mentioned the intention to hold a “bilateral strategic dialogue later this year”. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Đurić on 6 August and said: “We have agreed to hold a joint US-Serbia strategic dialogue later this year”. The strategic dialogue was proposed by Serbia in September 2024. It was confirmed at the level of the US Deputy Secretary of State and Secretary of State in January and April 2025.
Bipartisan initiative
The establishment of a US strategic dialogue with Serbia and Kosovo is envisaged in the Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act (S.1909), introduced in Congress on 22 May 2025. It is a bipartisan initiative to strengthen US relations with the countries of the Western Balkans by focusing on democracy, the fight against corruption, economic development, investment and sustainable development. The new bipartisan legislation was first introduced on August 2, 2022, by a group of US senators. The bill has been introduced in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, having been supplemented and changed over the years. The bill imposes anti-corruption strategies as a precondition for aid. It provides funds for regional infrastructure projects, but lacks specific mechanisms to oversee defense technology transfers, mentioned in Serbia’s proposal. It codifies US executive orders authorizing sanctions against individuals who undermine peace, stability, or engage in corrupt activities in the Western Balkans. A special chapter is dedicated to countering Russian and Chinese malicious operations and campaigns conducted against Balkan countries. The bipartisan bill foresees reduction of the region’s energy dependence on Russia.
Meanwhile, the US has unilaterally suspended the strategic dialogue with Kosovo, while it has yet to be established with Serbia.
The strategic dialogue with Serbia will contain 7-8 topics:
Economy: the main American interest is focused on lithium and copper in Serbia, which will be placed under American control. An American solar project is being prepared, as well as investments by Microsoft in Serbia. A new American resource center is being built near the Belgrade train station, with headquarters of American cultural industry companies. The Americans want to use the Serbian workforce in the field of artificial intelligence and the IT sector. The US sets a condition for the removal of Russian ownership and corporate management of NIS, in order to stop the flow of financial resources to Russia. Washington seeks to divert all key infrastructures of Russia and China that influence political decisions in Belgrade.
Regional and European policy: the main goal of the US is to block Serbia’s ties with China and Russia. Washington is seeking convergence of positions on Kosovo with the ultimate goal of border recognition.
The remaining areas of strategic dialogue with Serbia are: trade and investment; energy; the environment; technology; media; defense and security.
Interests guaranteed
Skeptical observers of the US point out that the U.S. doesn’t engage in dialogue, it dictates terms and buys loyalties. The question is also asked – “What kind of strategy is built on submission?!” Strategic partnerships like this keep enemies under control and allies close. Building strong alliances is the key to American dominance. “Serbia is hard to control, it is like Israel,” complain former CIA officers.
This strategic dialogue does not mean that the US will start loving Serbia. But Belgrade’s too strong rapprochement with Moscow and Beijing cannot but attract the attention of the US, along with Serbia’s resources, for which both Russia and China, as well as the EU, have appetites. The Aleksandar Vučić regime should be pressured both for its rule of law violations and for Belgrade’s destabilizing potential in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo.
One step forward, two back
The United States recently suspended the strategic dialogue with Kosovo over concerns that some actions by the government in Pristina are increasing tensions and instability. This shows that such dialogues are fragile and depend heavily on the behavior of governments, as well as on standards of stability and compliance with international norms. Dialogues can be subject to sudden changes — political scandals, instability, internal political tensions. Political instability and internal divisions (for example, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, or political collapse in some countries) can delay the formal launch of a dialogue. As the case of Kosovo shows, the United States can freeze or terminate a dialogue if the government’s actions are perceived to violate the principles of stability and transparency.
Wishful thinking or implementation
The Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act (S.1909) has been proposed, discussed, but has not become law. Some parts of it are still pending in committees that need to approve it. It is unclear when or in what final form it will be adopted. The bill is a strong diplomatic signal from the United States that the Western Balkans are seen not only as an object of European integration, but also as an important geopolitical partner for Washington. Conceived as a new platform for American influence in the Western Balkans, for politicians in Washington the bill is a catalog of measures and theoretical instructions, while for most Balkan leaders it has a wishful nature and is far from the realities on the ground. As for Serbia, it is happy that the main focus of the American administration in the Balkans is shifting from Sarajevo and Podgorica to Belgrade.
