Thewesternbalkans.
Barring any extraordinary changes, the next European Commission will be formed in the second half of 2029, with its new mandate likely to start on 1 November or 1 December 2029. The ambition of the von der Leyen Commission is to have the most mature candidate countries for membership – Montenegro and Albania – admitted to the EU by then. But the current EC will most likely have to be content with Montenegro’s accession, scheduled for 2028.
Will a Balkan country join before 2029 at all, or will EU enlargement prove to be mission impossible?
Montenegro, often seen as a candidate ready for accession, is deeply divided between forces that look more towards Belgrade or even Moscow, and those that support more pro-European national forces. There are also different factions within the Orthodox Church, which also influence the political discussion. However, the Greek government surprised observers by revealing its intention to accelerate Montenegro’s accession to the European Union during its presidency of the Council of the EU in the second half of 2027, as part of a broader strategy for the Western Balkans.
Albania currently appears to be following a relatively clear pro-European course. Although Albania has also failed to forge a common European policy between the two main parties, many necessary reforms have been implemented. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama is a rather authoritarian politician at home, but this helps him project a strong image internationally and demonstrate a clear pro-European stance. Meanwhile, intense protests have erupted in the country against the construction of tourist infrastructure in a unique reserve on the Adriatic Sea, targeting the government. While Rama does not appear to be panicking, he has seized on the integration process as a lifeline: “I will not leave office before Albania joins the EU,” the Albanian prime minister declared. The internal dynamics in Albania are serious, but in practice everything remains as it was, as often happens in the Balkans.
Serbia, under the leadership of authoritarian President Aleksandar Vučić, is striving to balance between Moscow, Brussels, Washington and Beijing. Mass demonstrations against opaque and authoritarian politics have, so far at least, not shown any weakening of Vučić’s system, although many observers suggest that it is built on shaky foundations. But President Vučić benefits from facing an indecisive, leaderless opposition. Experts following Serbia’s domestic politics are aware that President Vučić does not want to choose between EU membership and good relations with the current rulers in Moscow. He is a faithful continuation of the traditional Serbian policy from the Tito and Milošević eras of maintaining equidistance in international politics, with appeasement around the hegemon to trade benefits.
In Kosovo, like Albania, support for European integration is extremely high – between 80 and 90 percent. Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s popularity is declining after a series of elections that are on the verge of turning the young state of Kosovo into a “little Bulgaria” – a synonym for paralysis in governance and institutional weakness as a result of seven parliamentary elections in eight years. Although a supporter of European integration, A. Kurti has focused on elections and entrenched himself in a policy that offers no hope for constructive talks with Serbia. The Kosovo prime minister has shown no interest in cooperating with the Serbian population, which still expresses resistance to integration into Albanian-dominated Kosovo.
North Macedonia has gone through a difficult period in which it was prevented from being recognized as a candidate for accession due to Greek claims over its name. Now the country’s integration is delayed by Bulgaria’s demand to include Bulgarians in the Macedonian Constitution. Skopje is doing too little to contribute to the resolution of the conflict with Bulgaria. The request for a change in the Constitution is now part of the EU negotiating framework. Therefore, Bulgaria claims that the dispute is no longer bilateral, but between Skopje and Brussels. Bulgaria’s new Prime Minister Rumen Radev seems more intransigent than the series of previous Bulgarian caretaker governments. He refuses negotiations with his Macedonian counterpart Mickoski, saying “there is no room for such a meeting, because the problem is not bilateral. Mickoski has a problem with the EU.”
Bosnia and Herzegovina has failed to take the most important steps towards becoming a functioning state and thus towards EU accession negotiations. The main culprit is former Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik, who, despite losing his official post, has stubbornly pursued his selfish goals – including economic ones – and has recently received sympathy and support for this from Washington. Other ethnic nationalist forces also tend to focus more on their immediate voters than on the interests of the common state.
Moldova has recently demonstrated strong resistance to massive Russian attempts to influence the elections. However, a relatively large part of the population remains emotionally attached to Moscow. In addition, Russia continues to support a separatist government in Transnistria. EU leaders last week gave the official green light to start negotiations on the main aspects of aligning Moldova’s legal framework with that of the EU and promised to speed up accession talks.
Ukraine‘s understandable desire to join the EU poses the greatest challenges due to the size of the country and its agricultural structure. Furthermore, it should not be forgotten that with Ukraine, a country with a deeply traumatized population will join the EU. New conflicts will arise within the country itself, related to the socialization of fighters returning from the front and not least between those who stayed and defended the country and those who fled abroad and will return after the ceasefire. There will also be discussions about whether and how to establish new relations with neighboring Russia, which will have annexed part of Ukrainian territory. Therefore, regardless of official EU declarations, member states will postpone Ukraine’s membership by all means, and its accession can only be accelerated if the EU is imposed a date for Ukraine’s admission to a future peace agreement with Russia.
The individual candidate countries have different problems and challenges to overcome. In this respect, they cannot be treated equally, neither in terms of content nor in terms of timing, and join the EU at the same time.
Regardless of the assessment of the level of technical readiness of the candidate countries, in the end the political reason for their admission to the EU will prevail. Albania and Montenegro are a model for enlargement and are ready for membership. Serbia is outside the enlargement model, as is North Macedonia, which is becoming a “little Serbia”. The current leaders of North Macedonia are extremely indoctrinated by Vučić and are using the enlargement process to obtain money.
Although both Moldova and Ukraine state that they want to complete the accession process by the end of 2027, compliance with EU rules, known as the EU’s acquis communautaire, is only part of the process. The 27 EU member states will also have to unanimously support accession. Moldovan leaders do not want the country to be separated from Ukraine in the accession process, and they also declare the country a victim of Russia because of the Russian “occupation” of Transnistria. The leader in the Ukraine-Moldova candidate pair (according to the so-called frigate principle) is Ukraine, and Chisinau is concerned that Moldova’s separation would have catastrophic consequences for the country’s accession process.
The accession process of Georgia, which was the most prepared candidate in an earlier period, was suspended due to a reversal in the democratic process in the country. Georgia carried out all the reforms, but the door to the EU remained closed.
As for Armenia, it is ready to go as close to Europe as Europe will allow it. It is an advantage for the Armenian side that in Euro-Atlantic cooperation there is no longer talk about human rights and values, and geopolitical processes are at the expense of values.
To avoid embarrassment, the EC is looking for creative solutions and resorting to gradual enlargement – a kind of „Membership Lite“, which Brussels is keen not to see as a fallback to full membership. Candidate countries are now being asked to continue gradual integration into the EU internal market in key sectors, while allowing candidates to progressively participate in EU policies and programmes during the accession process. Candidates are required to fully accept EU foreign policy as a first step, but without a vote in EU decision-making. For Serbia, access to EU projects and policies makes some sense, but Belgrade’s refusal to align itself with EU foreign policy will put it in the same category as perennial candidate Turkey. Albania also agrees to gradual integration – what is important for its leaders is to be at the table with the major European countries.
Through the proposed new mechanism for “gradual” or “associated” EU membership, the Commission hopes to overcome bilateral conflicts or at least postpone them for a later period.
The alternative to gradual membership, which is already overdue anyway, would be capitulation to the task of integration. According to Austrian sociology professor Georg Wobruba, the EU’s expansion to the south and east is geopolitically necessary, but integration is too challenging and very difficult to achieve – almost mission impossible. The professor, who teaches at the University of Leipzig, even fears that integration could lead to a prolongation of the existing war in Ukraine or to new military dangers. As a solution, he proposes expanding buffer zones into intermediate peace-building zones, i.e. areas where neither NATO nor Russia would be allowed to station troops and where accession to the EU would not be possible.
Europe is frantically searching for new ideas and approaches to address the challenges of integration. But at first, the EU is tempted to put the ripest and most easily accessible fruits in the enlargement basket.
