Thewesternbalkans
What’s new?
On Tuesday (January 14), the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament reviewed the progress of ten countries that want to join the EU, with the new Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos. In the first debate with Marta Kos since she took office as Commissioner for Enlargement on 1 December 2024, MEPs assessed the state of play in the ten enlargement countries and their progress in implementing EU-related reforms.
For the first time in ten years there was a realistic prospect that “during this mandate we can bring one, two or three countries to the finish line”, Marta Kos said, stressing, however, that “enlargement remains a merit-based process”. She praised the candidate countries’ faith in the EU values and promised to achieve as much in EU enlargement during the Polish presidency (January-June 2025) as in the last ten years.
The Enlargement Commissioner called for the “soft power” of enlargement to be embedded in the hardware of the process. But explaining to people the benefit of the enlargement in a completely changed world is a difficult task. This will be facilitated by the new communication strategy for EU enlargement, which is expected to be proposed by the end of January this year. It will focus on achieving unity between the member states and the candidate countries, as well as within the candidate countries themselves – between the government, parliament, opposition, NGOs and all citizens.
What does it mean?
Podgorica’s ambition is to conclude the negotiation process by the end of 2026 and to complete the ratification process in the member states in 2028. Albania’s timetable is a year later.
Although Marta Koss promised that there would be no “geopolitical discount” in the enlargement process, in her fifteen-minute address to MEPs she focused entirely on Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia and only mentioned the Western Balkans in passing, naming only the “frontrunners” Montenegro and Albania. Putting Ukraine at the top of the priorities is in line with the priorities of the Polish presidency, which are dominated by European security.
Outlook
The opening of Cluster 6 in the EU negotiations with Albania and the closing of three chapters with Montenegro at the end of 2024 puts these two countries in the zone of possibilities for EU accession by the end of the mandate of the current ruling bloc in the EU. It is not yet clear which is the third country that Marta Kos mentioned as a possible new EU member. The accession process of North Macedonia has stopped, Serbia is at a foreign policy crossroads, and no steps are foreseen for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo in the accession process in the near future. Even if the Eastern Partnership countries draw good cards in the upcoming geopolitical poker, the earliest that Ukraine and Moldova will open Cluster 1 is 2025, and the process of Georgia is effectively stopped in 2024.
Ukrainian President Zelensky wants all chapters to be opened as early as 2025, but the question is rather about their closure. For both Ukraine and Moldova, it is realistic to open two clusters this year, Brussels believes. Regarding North Macedonia, the European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, expressed hopes that Skopje would fulfill its obligation to amend the constitution in order to advance on the path to the EU with the support of Bulgaria.
For each candidate country for membership, 150 unanimous decisions are needed in the European Council to start and complete the accession process. For Ukraine and Moldova, unanimous decisions are needed in the coming weeks for screening reports, benchmarks, commission opinions, etc. Regardless of the work that the Commissioner for Enlargement will do, the EU member states ultimately have the say. The spats between Croatia and Montenegro over war crimes in the past and even their recent dispute over the ownership of an old Yugoslav training ship do not bode well for both countries and are a reminder of how many possibilities for veto member states have in the decision-making process.
