Thewesternbalkans.
Geopolitical Dynamics and External Influences
The key questions from a geopolitical perspective include whether the EU will maintain its commitment to enlargement, as this has the potential to stabilize the region. The impact of the second Trump administration on U.S. foreign policy and its approach to the Western Balkans also remains uncertain, as does the influence of Eastern powers, including Russia, China, and Muslim-majority countries like Türkiye.
Democratic Challenges and Regional Elections
Democracy in the Western Balkans continues to face longstanding issues, with increasing citizen mobilization, particularly in Serbia. In 2025, two significant elections are scheduled: in Kosovo in February and in Albania in May. Both incumbent governments are expected to retain power, maintaining their respective Euro-Atlantic orientations.
EU Enlargement Momentum
Following the war in Ukraine, EU leaders renewed their focus on enlargement. Montenegro and Albania aim to close all negotiating chapters by 2026–2027. Serbia has made efforts to demonstrate formal progress, but challenges remain. The enlargement process has recently accelerated, making 2025 pivotal in sustaining this momentum. The European Commission will conduct policy reviews to assess readiness, and negotiations for the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework may indicate expectations for new member states during that period.
U.S. Engagement in the Western Balkans
Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. President has not clarified the administration’s stance on the region, signaling a relatively low priority for the Western Balkans. During Trump’s first term, continuity prevailed despite some efforts to address Serbia-Kosovo relations. Richard Grenell’s appointment as Special Envoy for Special Missions raises questions about potential U.S. focus in the region. The Trump administration’s potential alignment with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni could also influence Western Balkan policies.
Influence of China, Russia, and Türkiye
Russia: Likely to maintain its focus on Slavic nations, leveraging economic, cultural, and religious ties, particularly with Serbia and Republika Srpska.
China: Strengthens its influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road and a free trade agreement with Serbia, ensuring access to regional markets.
Türkiye: Continues its political, economic, and cultural engagement, using its historical and religious ties to bolster influence. Strong relations between Presidents Erdogan and Vučić remain pivotal.
Democracy and Elections
Kosovo’s and Albania’s elections are key events in 2025, with incumbent leaders Albin Kurti and Edi Rama favored to retain power. In Albania, political polarization persists, but EU progress remains a priority. In Serbia, no elections are planned for 2025, but significant protests over controversial policies and infrastructure failures challenge the ruling party.
Serbia-Kosovo Relations
Despite accepting the 2023 Brussels-Ohrid agreement, no tangible steps have been taken toward normalization. The expiration of EU Special Representative Miroslav Lajčák’s term in January 2025 adds uncertainty to the dialogue.
Conclusion
The year 2025 promises to be transformative for the Western Balkans. The EU’s reinvigorated enlargement strategy could drive significant reforms and geopolitical shifts. Meanwhile, the influence of the U.S., China, Russia, and Türkiye will continue to shape the region. Political dynamics, particularly the alignment of major powers, will play a decisive role in determining the trajectory of the Western Balkans.
