Thewesternbalkans
It is very possible that Albin Kurti’s Self-Determination Movement (Vetëvendosje) will emerge as the first political force in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Kosovo on February 9, but will not be able to form a governing coalition. In the 2021 elections, the party won 50.28% of the vote.
Tough election campaign
The election campaign in Kosovo officially started on January 11, but the date of the elections was known months ago and political forces had considerable time to prepare.
After four years in power, Prime Minister Albin Kurti has taken an aggressive approach in preparing to retain his power. The focus was on nationalism, the defense of national sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of the country, which is under “a growing threat from Serbia.” Kurti personally introduced elements of authoritarianism and showed an undisguised desire to position himself as the “father of the nation”, turning his back on party programs and collective decisions and giving way to division and polarization, hate speech and provocations.
Kosovo sovereignty against the „Serbian threat“
Kurti’s narrative of the “imminent Serbian threat” culminated in the elimination of all Serbian “parallel structures” in Northern Kosovo on January 15 as a result of a large-scale police operation. This process began as early as August 2024 with the closure of Serbian postal, tax, administrative and social offices. Kosovo’s Minister of Interior, Xhelal Svecla, announced that “the era of Serbian parallel and criminal institutions in the Republic of Kosovo is over.” The closure of these Belgrade-run institutions was intended to convince Kosovars that the government had fulfilled its promise and to demonstrate in propaganda terms that the territories with a predominantly Serbian population in the north of the country were under the effective control of the authorities.
Foreign and domestic reactions
These actions of Pristina have, as expected, provoked a sharp reaction from all external factors. The US Embassy in Pristina, in an address to the media, said that the government’s actions directly and negatively affect the citizens of the country, ethnic Serbs and other communities, and may undermine Kosovo’s aspirations to join the Euro-Atlantic community. “These actions, contrary to our best advice, weaken trust in the relationship and limit our ability to help Kosovo secure the best and brightest future for all its people. We continue to monitor the situation,” added the US Embassy spokesperson. The position of the EU Delegation in Pristina was similar. The European External Action Service (EEAS) published a statement, according to which Kosovo’s actions against “Serbian-backed structures” in the country contradict Pristina’s commitments to the EU within the framework of the process of normalizing relations with Belgrade. The statement added that the status of “Serbian-backed structures” should be resolved through the Pristina-Belgrade dialogue.
Due to the actions of the Kosovo police against Serbia’s parallel institutions, the first meeting of the Joint Commission on Missing Persons from the War did not take place. It was to begin in Brussels under the auspices of Miroslav Lajčák, the EU Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue.
Interestingly, according to local Kosovo media, the Kosovo Prosecutor’s Office refused to approve the police operation.
Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Đurić stated that “coordinated actions by the Kurti government targeting Serbian institutions in Kosovo… mark a dangerous escalation.” According to Đurić, these actions are aimed at “the collective rights and identity of Serbs in Kosovo.” The head of the Serbian government’s Office for Kosovo and Metohija, Petar Petkovic, called the operation a “terrorist act”.
Serbian List
The unsuccessful attempts of the Self-Determination Movement to administratively and legally thwart the participation of the Serbian List in the upcoming general elections and the authorities’ closure of parallel Serbian structures in North Mitrovica have led to increased rhetoric and tension between Pristina and Belgrade. Official representatives from Belgrade state that the Serbian List is the only legitimate and authentic political representative of the Serbian population in Kosovo, which is why the recent frequent visits to North Kosovo by representatives of the top state leadership constitute interference in internal affairs and an attempt to incite interethnic escalation in Kosovo.
Limited coalition potential
According to independent experts, the current parliament of Kosovo is the least effective in the recent history of Kosovo. The standard of living is falling, the country is entering an economic depression. Economic growth is lower than in the period before Kurti. Corruption at the highest levels is expanding.
The confrontational policy of the Self-Determination Movement towards the local opposition and Serbia, the populist and arbitrary actions of Kurti have caused irritation among important international factors and led to the diplomatic isolation of Kosovo. The EU has imposed sanctions, external pressure to establish an Association of Serbian Municipalities in Kosovo has intensified.
Despite the demonstration of self-confidence and aggressiveness of A. Kurti, his intolerance towards any opposition has visibly limited the coalition potential of the Self-Determination Movement. The electoral system in Kosovo is proportional and by design should favor coalitions between political forces, but the gap between the government and the opposition remains deep.
Another government rotation?
Why might a change of power in Kosovo happen? Strong and functioning institutions have already been established in Kosovo, guaranteeing a normal rotation of power. In 24 years, 10 prime ministers have changed. The Prosecutor’s Office and the Constitutional Court demonstrate a high degree of independence. The Self-Determination Movement currently has no declared coalition partners, and at the local level it is yielding to the opposition. The major opposition parties LDK and PDK are presenting themselves with serious programs, electoral lists, and a combination between experienced politicians and fresh faces. The fan base of Kurti’s political and religious supporters is shrinking, and the support of the diaspora is declining.
Naturally, A. Kurti will not easily swallow a possible loss and is capable of causing a crisis at any moment, through which he can impose his stay in power.
