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On June 5, a phone call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping took place at the initiative of the US side. For 4 months, Washington worked to hold this conversation, which lasted an hour and a half.
The Chinese side issued an official statement about the phone call, while the US side issued a comment by Trump on the X platform.
A review and comparison of the texts shows that the conversation may have been useful, and the US and China seem to have stepped back from their latest sharp confrontation. The positive spirit of the Geneva trade talks is returning. But it all depends on the actions that the two sides will take after the conversation.
It is clear from Trump’s comment that the suspension of Chinese exports of rare earth magnets may be coming to an end. For Trump, this is clearly the most important thing in the conversation. It is not big news that the US will talk to China about export controls, and it is not very certain whether this is a concession. Even under the Biden administration, a mechanism for “export control information exchange” was established. Perhaps the US would lift some controls in exchange for some concessions, including on rare earths. In any case, the Chinese statement says nothing about rare earths or magnets.
Trump has shown a willingness to make concessions on the issue of Chinese students in the US.
The focus in the Chinese statement is on Xi’s comment that China has principles or that its position is principled. This is a reminder that Beijing believes that time is on its side. Compared with the US, it can withstand economic pressure for the time being. The Chinese statement presents Xi as a responsible helmsman in the face of “disruptions and disruptions” in the US.
Of particular note at the end are Xi’s remarks on Taiwan, which are quite frank. He talks about the potential for conflict. The dissonance is that Trump is narrowly focused on trade and his statement does not mention Taiwan.
Ukraine and Russia were not discussed.
The Trump-Xi call also resulted in the two sides meeting again soon, and the US added Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick to the negotiating team, along with Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. It is understandable that Lutnick would join, as the trade department is responsible for export controls.
In this situation, there is a certain advantage for China. The US export controls that have so angered China are already on the negotiating table. For their part, China has already built its export control regime around rare earths, and especially rare earth magnets, stating that they are related to national security, not trade, just as the US positions its export controls.
It is also worth noting that during his first term, Trump offered to remove export controls on Huawei and ZTE, at Xi’s request, in order to reach a trade deal.
Trump has accepted an invitation to visit China from the Chinese leader, which is a good sign, as high-level meetings always mark an improvement in relations. It will be significant whether the visit will coincide with celebrations in China for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War, which Vladimir Putin will also attend.
