Thewesternbalkans.
What’s new
On 1 February, EU Special Representative (EUSR) for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue Miroslav Lajčák will be replaced in this post by Danish diplomat Peter Sørensen. Lajčák has held the post since April 2020 and his mandate has been extended several times.
Lajčák’s legacy
During his five-year mandate as EU Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue Miroslav Lajčák Lajčák has made systematic and proactive efforts to ensure progress in the Serbia-Kosovo Dialogue, as well as to quell recurring crises on the ground. The EUSR and his team have earned positive reviews for their work, although the atmosphere between Belgrade and Pristina is more negative today than it was five years ago. Miroslav Lajčák’s mandate expires at the end of January, leaving the process in a state of uncertainty, with both sides urged to fulfil their obligations under the 2023 agreement.
The biggest achievement in the negotiation process during the time Lajčák was leading the EU mediation team was the Agreement on the path to normalization between Kosovo and Serbia of February 2023 and its Annex (March 2023). The documents have not been signed by both sides, but they became the first phase towards a full and final normalization of their relations, aimed at de facto mutual recognition between the two countries.
The EU’s incentive levers were not used effectively enough to start implementing the Europe Agreement. For Pristina and Belgrade, the benefits of the European integration process are not enough to compensate for the domestic political negatives of the inevitable and difficult compromises they have to make. Serbia remains unwilling to implement the agreement, and Kosovo is under criticism for its inaction regarding the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities. The EU and the US have criticized Kosovo’s lack of progress, especially in protecting the Serb community, and have placed most of the blame for the lack of progress in dialogue on the Kosovo government.
Normalizing relations with Serbia is not a priority in the election campaigns of Kosovo’s prime ministerial candidates, including Albin Kurti, Bedri Hamza, Lumir Abdixiku and Ramush Haradinaj. The focus of the campaign (the elections are scheduled for February 9) is largely on domestic issues such as rising prices, unemployment and living standards, which resonate with voters’ sentiments amid economic challenges. While the international community insists that dialogue with Serbia is crucial to Kosovo’s EU and NATO membership ambitions, the candidates have avoided emphasizing the issue given its controversial nature. Analysts attribute this silence to fears of a political backlash over contentious issues such as the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities. Serbia’s leaders also feel little pressure from society to normalize relations with Kosovo.
What’s next
The last year of the EUSR’s mandate coincided with the new dynamics of the enlargement process in the Western Balkans region. The new EUSR, Peter Sørensen, is expected to take steps to more decisively link the progress of Kosovo and Serbia on their path towards European integration, both with financial assistance to them and with progress in the implementation by the parties of the agreements concluded within the Dialogue, for which there is a favourable political context.
Ultimately, the success of the mediation efforts within the Dialogue will depend crucially on both the EU’s readiness to offer both parties a credible European perspective as an incentive for a decisive breakthrough in the negotiation process, and on their readiness to compromise and accept some painful trade-offs in the medium and long term on the path to future EU membership.
