Thewesternbalkans
From 1 January 2025, Poland will take over the six-month presidency of the Council of the EU, and its priorities will be the broadly understood security, including defence. Planned activities include the opening of the first chapters of negotiations with Ukraine and the effective conclusion of negotiations on the European Defence Industrial Development Programme (EDIDP), which aims to accelerate the restoration of the military capabilities of the Member States.
The six-month Polish Presidency of the EU coincides with the new EU institutional cycle, which means that Poland has a chance to influence the discussion on the EU’s strategic development directions.
Challenges for the Polish Presidency related to the integration process of the Western Balkans
A priority intention of Warsaw is to strive to open the first chapters in the accession negotiations with Ukraine. At the same time, an important part of Warsaw’s efforts is to dynamize the accession process of the Western Balkan countries by opening new negotiation chapters in selected cases.
In order to speed up EU enlargement, the new Commission, the Polish Presidency and the EU Member States should take steps towards streamlining the decision-making process on enlargement. Individual Member States tend to use dozens of bilateral disputes to impose vetoes during the negotiation process. Although such cases are mainly used for domestic policy purposes, they objectively slow down the negotiation process for candidate countries. More and more Member States agree that unanimous Council decisions are necessary for the most important steps, such as opening and closing negotiations, as well as for closing Cluster 1 on fundamental issues, while intermediate, more technical steps should be decided by the European Commission. In addition, Poland wants to present an enlargement “roadmap”, defining the enlargement model for which the EU should prepare – one large enlargement or accepting individual countries one by one.
Another dilemma facing both the Warsaw Presidency and the new European Commission is how, on the one hand, to move the accession process forward, while maintaining close cooperation, commitment and the perspective of the candidate countries, and on the other hand, to link it to an assessment of the countries on their own merits.
In order to accelerate the accession process and create additional incentives for the candidate countries, proposals for phased accession or progressive integration are increasingly being examined at expert level. By granting selected benefits of membership, depending on the successful completion of individual phases of the negotiations, the aim is to strengthen pro-reform incentives and accelerate the accession negotiations. However, the idea of phased accession or progressive integration requires a fundamental political debate between Member States, which could be launched by the Polish Presidency and the new EC.
Warsaw can be expected to pay increased attention to the effects of Russian aggression, which are noticeable in the candidate countries, mainly through disinformation, electoral interference and intra-regional tensions. This geopolitical context reinforces the politicisation of the enlargement process and influences the balance of power in the Council, where almost all Member States accept geopolitical arguments in addition to the importance of the rule of law and merit. Some Member States explicitly insist on accelerating the enlargement process. Others, such as the Netherlands, remain critical, insisting on the strict application of all criteria and insisting on taking decisions on EU accession on the basis of merit, including when it comes to intermediate steps in the process. At the same time, accession processes are regularly delayed due to mainly bilateral disputes, the resolution of which should not be sought in the accession process. This undermines the credibility of the merit-based process.
According to the EC, Montenegro has made the most progress towards 2024 compared to other candidate countries and is the best prepared of all candidate countries to take on the obligations of EU membership. Given the progress of the negotiation process, it makes sense to set an indicative, not too distant date for Montenegro’s accession to the EU in order to mobilise all parties involved. Montenegro is a small country that is already well integrated into the EU, so its accession involves little risk to the functioning of the EU or the economic interests of the current Member States. On the other hand, Montenegro’s rapid accession could encourage other candidates and increase confidence in the entire enlargement process. Poland is also expected to play an important role early next year in urging the governments of Serbia and Kosovo to implement the 2023 Ohrid Agreement on the path to normalisation between the two countries. Resolving this conflict could remove obstacles to Serbia and Kosovo’s accession to the EU and stabilise the entire Western Balkans region.
At a more technical level, an assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of the Revised Enlargement Methodology (REM) is expected to be initiated during the Warsaw Presidency, with a view to proposing adjustments if necessary.
