Thewesternbalkans
- Geopolitically, the countries of the Western Balkans continue to be the object of interest both from the East and from the West (mainly from the EU and to a lesser extent from the USA).
Russia maintains its interests mainly in the Slavic states as Serbia, the Republic of North Macedonia (RNM) and Montenegro, as well as in the Slavic segment in BiH.
On 7 of May, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Serbia during his first visit to Europe in five years. Before Belgrade, he was in Paris, and then he visited Budapest. He arrived in the Serbian capital on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999. He was accompanied by more than 400 other officials from China. During his visit to Serbia, more than 30 agreements were signed between the two countries.
As a follow up, in August 2024, China concluded a free trade agreement (FTA) with Serbia, which can be defined as the most significant economic event for the region. The FTA involves reciprocal elimination of tariffs on 90% of tariffs lines, with more than 60% taking immediate effect. Starting this month, exports of products such as fresh apples, blueberries, dried plums, jams, seeds and beef from Serbia to the Chinese market can proceed without tariffs.
Türkiye (another big player in the WB) continues to elevate economic and political cooperation with the Western Balkan states. On 5 and 6 of September, the Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan visited the Republic of North Macedonia and Kosovo. A little bit later, on 10 and 11 of October, Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdogan paid a two days visit to the Western Balkans countries Albania and Serbia.
Regardless of its focus on Ukraine, the main geopolitical player in the region remains the European Union. Through the processes of implementation of the Stabilization and Association Agreements (including the trade segment in them), as well as by accelerating the enlargement process, the EU continues to keep the attention on itself among the Balkan peoples and their elites. During the year, some very important decisions were made in Brussels, such as European Council decision and starting the preparation of the negotiating framework with BiH, as well as holding the first substantive intergovernmental conference with Albania, where chapters of the first negotiating cluster were opened. With these actions, the EU demonstrates consistency in its policy towards the WB countries and development of their integration according to their merits. The RNM was separated (for now) from the package with Albania as it was not invited for negotiations due to non-implementation of a decision of the European Council related to the inclusion of Bulgarians in the country’s constitution. At the end of October, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, visited the countries of the Western Balkans, and at the beginning of November, the reports on the enlargement of the EC were published.
The analysis of von der Leyen’s statements, as well as the reports of the EC, shows that along the lines of enlargement, a serious division of the countries of the Western Balkans can be expected:
The standout of the group is Montenegro, which could complete negotiations by 2026 and join the EU in 2028.
Second in formal progress in the negotiations is Serbia, but its attitude to the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy puts it in a situation that does not allow it to be the EU’s short- and medium-term enlargement priority. Another significant problem for Serbia is the lack of any progress towards the normalization of relations with Kosovo, despite the rather optimistic statements of the European High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell. Obviously, this is a problem that far exceeds the capabilities of the European Commission.
The start of substantive negotiations with Albania led to statements by Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama that the country could become a member of the EU by 2030, which can be considered quite optimistic.
Concerning RNM, the European Commission is currently waiting and monitoring to what extent it will implement the European Council’s decision to change the Constitution. The report of the European Commission on the RNM provides a certain “loophole” for negotiations to postpone the change in the Constitution for a later stage, since on the other hand, North Macedonia is excellent in implementing the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the EU, which is of special importance for Brussels.
Regarding BiH, there is readiness to hold the first intergovernmental conference in 2025, but more serious guarantees are expected from the leaders of Republika Srpska to preserve the integrity of the federal state.
Kosovo remains in a mode of observation and gradual integration on a project basis.
2. In the category of domestic political events, the elections in the Republic of North Macedonia undoubtedly have the greatest importance for the development of the country, and to a large extent for the relations with the other countries in the region. The new RNM government, as well as the new president, won the elections with strongly nationalist messages, which they then tried to defend and implement. And this is exactly where the first disappointments occurred, quite expectedly, because anti-European rhetoric is not easily accepted in Brussels. In the EC report, as well as Von der Leyen herself clearly stated to the new rulers in Skopje that this is not the way to enter Europe. If one looks carefully at the statement of the President of the EC in Skopje, one can also notice a certain note of threat to Prime Minister Mickoski, because integration in the EU is above all a desire of the young people in the Republic of Macedonia. And they will not abandon the European road. However, in Sofia, very serious conclusions should be drawn about the fact that in a neighboring country the language of hatred against Bulgaria was leading and allowed the undisputed victory of one political force at the same time in the parliamentary and presidential elections.
The “deal of the century” between Germany and Serbia for the mining of lithium in Serbia also entered the headlines. The combination of European hopes, social protests, leadership oaths and promises really deserves attention. In a few days. Scholz personally went (“on foot”) to Belgrade to support President Vucic. Of course, this did not prevent a new round of protests against the Serbian president to begin at the end of the year. This time on the occasion of a fallen visor of a transport facility.
For Albania, the most significant event of 2024 was obviously the holding of the independent intergovernmental conference within the framework of the EU accession negotiations. Albania was separated from the RNM and accordingly received a horizon for a possible conclusion of the negotiations and join the EU until 2030, which was assessed as realistic by both Von der Leyen and Edi Rama. I would rate it as too optimistic, given the leading weaknesses and the level of political will for certain Albania’s reforms.
Montenegro received its recognition as a leader of the group of countries from the Western Balkans in European integration and a horizon for possible accession to the EU in 2028, which against the background of the desire of the new European Commission to realize some success in the direction of enlargement seems realistic.
It is of particular importance to emphasize that, in geopolitical terms, three of the countries in the WB are members of NATO – Albania, Montenegro and the Republic of North Macedonia. Among these countries will be the next members of the EU.
