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Vučić too early announced the end of the color revolution
On June 30, Aleksandar Vučić announced the end of the “color revolution” in Serbia and said that street blockades will soon be a thing of the past. According to the Serbian president, the barricades erected by the protesters are a manifestation of impotence after the defeat of the color revolution on Vidovdan. When Vučić says that the state won as a result of the protest on June 28, he is very wrong. In the confrontation with the dissatisfied people, the state can hardly win in the conditions of today’s Serbia, where there has never been, as in other European countries, a sacred attitude towards state institutions.
The revolution failed on Vidovdan, but the streets of Belgrade are in chaos: garbage cans are overturned, protesters are jumping on the sidewalks, and the police are standing guard and dispersing them. In the following days, protesters blocked key transport hubs in Belgrade and other cities, set up barricades and tents, demanding the release of detainees, holding elections, and the demolition of the tent camp of Vučić’s supporters near the parliament building. They even tried to block construction work on President Vučić’s flagship project – EXPO-2027.
The protesting students called on citizens to establish a complete blockade of traffic in the Serbian capital and other cities in the country.
It should be noted that all protest rallies in Serbia in recent years have been held completely illegally. Traditionally, no one asks the authorities for permission to hold them. The authorities accordingly showed restraint and did not disperse them, essentially turning a blind eye to the fact that people were expressing their opinions in violation of the law. Now, however, demonstrators, accustomed to the fact that nothing will happen to them when they block streets and squares, are surprised that the police are suddenly resorting to repression. This will certainly lead to an even greater escalation of tensions.
Serbia is divided
The situation in Serbia is very tense due to the deep division of Serbian society that has been manifested outwardly. In fact, the country is divided into two camps – into conditional students who want changes and those who want stability. This division of society is very deep, but it is not geopolitical: there is no confrontation – some are for Russia, others for Europe. The entire Serbian society is to some extent “Russophile”, both the older generation and the younger generation. The watershed is more related to the style of governance: the younger generation categorically does not like Vučić’s style of governance, the older generation believes that this is not a big problem.
Moscow is observing the protests
Moscow is taking a passive position regarding the protests in Serbia, an observer position. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow expects the protests in Serbia to be resolved quickly within the framework of its legislation, stressing that Russia hopes that Western countries will not try to organize a so-called “color revolution” in the country. However, there are no anti-Russian or pro-Russian forces in the internal Serbian conflict. Russia has neither the potential nor the desire to intervene. For Russia, Vučić, who thanks Moscow for understanding the internal processes in Serbia, is perhaps the lesser evil. Moscow is dealing strictly with Belgrade on the issues of Serbian weapons going to Ukraine and the threat of nationalization of the key Russian asset in Serbia – Serbia’s oil industry. But who will come after Vucic if and when his regime falls remains an open question for Moscow.
The West is silent or supports implicitly – through the non-governmental sector
The role of the West in the protests taking place on the streets of Serbia cannot be completely denied. In Serbia, in recent decades, a huge number of NGOs have been allowed to form, almost all of them pro-Western or with Western funding. Their members and activists are participants in the protests and have a role in coordinating them. The EU and its loyal NGOs practically control the funding of many projects in Serbian academic and scientific circles, which is a way to influence students. But the attempt at control may fail. Even the German press is now very concerned about the “Greater Serbian nationalism” that has engulfed the Serbian youth protests.
Although Western NGOs are implementing programs in Serbia to involve young people in political processes, decentralization, spontaneity, and low self-organization of protesting youth are currently observed. This may be a deliberately sought-after illusion, but the protesters’ messages, evident from the posters they hold up, are characterized by a lack of a unified visual concept, different meanings and methods of making posters, emotional outbursts, rather than rational dialogue with the authorities.
The protesting students officially distance themselves from any political opposition entities, even from the youth movements “Stav”, “Sviče” and the opposition organization “ProGlas”. These three organizations fully support the protests, participate in them, and strive to support them. Members of these informal associations were at the heart of the current protest and have been actively involved in organizing the student actions from the very beginning. Among them are many activists who, according to Serbian intelligence services, cooperate with agents of German and British intelligence, as well as prominent Serbian grantees who receive funding from pro-Western NGOs.
The pro-Western professor from Novi Sad, Dinko Gruhonjić, played a significant role in the creation of “Stav” and “Sviče”. Many members of the Movement for Free Citizens, whose leader has recently proposed that the Serbian parliament adopt a resolution recognizing the “genocide” in Srebrenica, are also participating in the protests.
The distinction between student protesters and similar structures is due to the patriotic sentiments prevailing among them.
The protests have not yet brought to the fore the leaders they desperately need. Now, one or another decision regarding the direction and form of the protests is made by the so-called plenums of students from various faculties.
The composition of the protesters is extremely diverse. Among them are representatives of both the extreme left and the extreme right, supporters of Russia and the West. There are constant contradictions between them, but although the student struggle is not a political project, the protesters are now united by the demand for early elections, which is a purely political demand.
Students want elections, Vučić – no
The last parliamentary elections in Serbia were held at the end of 2023, and currently Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has a stable majority in parliament. Therefore, he will not rush to hold elections amid the protests in the country. Vučić is already in the second part of his second presidential term and will not rush the next presidential elections, which are due to be held in April 2027. His party, in which one in nine Serbs is a member, including the elderly and babies (700,000 members out of a population of less than 7 million), remains the most popular in the country.
The enemy with a party ticket
But the main danger for Vučić may come from his own party, the SNS. Vucic’s dictatorial style of governance is not to the taste of all party functionaries, and the social elevator for promoting young cadres is not functioning normally. The ruling coalition, in which the junior partners are Dačić ‘s Socialists, may not be as stable as it seems. There are signs that Ivica Dačić may distance himself from Vučić, in order to better position himself in a future governing configuration. It seems that Vučić has already passed the zenith of his ability to control the entire country. In the event of new elections, Vučić will lose the big cities, where millions of dissatisfied citizens are. In addition, the protests have already spread to small Serbian regions.
Neutralizing the external factor
In his untouchability, Vučić relies on the role of the external factor, as he carefully balances good relations with both Western leaders and Putin and Xi Jinping. He remembers well the lesson of the overthrow of Milosevic on October 5, 2000 – then all Western countries supported the protests, while now they either do not support the protests publicly or are silent.
Vučić continues to maintain the narrative that the West is trying to carry out a color revolution in Serbia and that the most powerful Western special services are behind the student protests. This version is unconvincing, because it is the Serbian special services that exercise total control over every opposition movement and blackmail every newly hatched opposition leader. That is why there is little chance that opposition leaders will soon appear among the protesters – they are compromised in their infancy.
Civil opposition as a prelude to civil war
In fact, in Serbia we are now witnessing the active development of a very dangerous civil confrontation, already uncontrollable, which is flooding the streets and squares of Serbian cities and is a harbinger of a civil war in which each of the two sides will want to be the winner. This will be an extremely bad situation for both Serbia and Europe.
The Serbian police will deal with the blockades and tent cities that began to appear throughout Serbia after June 28. And this will probably happen soon, which will be helped by the vacation period, the heat, the deterioration of the social situation of students who neither study nor work and have no one to support them. But the main reason for the protests – the fundamental rejection of Vučić’s style of governance – will remain. The polarization of society is a fact and it is developing in the direction of further destabilization. The authorities have fulfilled some of the protesters’ demands, and if they refuse to fulfill the next ones, this can provoke an even greater wave of protests at any time. The protests will probably flare up with new force in the fall. And then it is not certain that Vučić will be able to cope with them so easily.
