Thewesternbalkans
Montenegrin politicians, at least those who are directly involved in the EU accession process, believe in the “magical” formula “28 – 28” – Montenegro will become the 28th member of the European Union in 2028.
The small Western Balkan country has been negotiating for EU membership for 12 years now. During this period, after Croatia’s accession to the EU in 2013, the EU’s enthusiasm for accepting new members gave way to enlargement fatigue. Accordingly, in the candidate countries from the Western Balkans, fatigue from staying in the “waiting room” was observed.
The Russian aggression in Ukraine two and a half years ago caused a change in the EU’s thinking. It became clear that Europe can only get greater security when it is united. Thus, the accession talks intensified and became more political and less technical in nature.
For Podgorica, the historic moment occurred on June 25, 2024, when the European Commission certified that Montenegro was the first country from the Western Balkans to overcome the obstacle “Interim Benchmark Assessment Report” – IBAR. This interim report on the rule of law serves as a benchmark for an EU accession candidate’s progress in this area. The positive IBAR is a confirmation of the successful steps taken under negotiating chapters 23 (Justice and fundamental rights) and 24 (Justice, freedom and security) of the accession procedure and points the way for further reforms. The decision was taken in Montenegro as a positive signal from Brussels and as a sign of the EU’s growing willingness to accept new members.
The receipt of a positive Interim Benchmark Assessment Report for Montenegro is a milestone for the EU as well, as it is the first time in history that this new necessary condition in the enlargement methodology has been applied. Montenegro thus becomes a role model for other candidate countries and an example for the EC how to work with them and help them reach this important milestone.
The Montenegrin government, which has only been in power for a year, realizes that this is not the end of the road, but only a turning point made possible by the synergy between the government and the parliament. In Montenegro, there is no hesitation and everything is going smoothly in the parliament, and the government is doing its job and has a clear plan. To date, 33 negotiation chapters have been opened and the government, together with the EC has planned in detail when and how the individual chapters should be closed. It is expected that the next intergovernmental conference with the EU will take place at the end of 2024, at which up to four negotiation chapters will be closed.
Podgorica’s plan is to close all negotiation chapters by the end of 2026, with the goal of Montenegro becoming the 28th member of the EU in 2028, taking into account the necessary time for ratification by the member states. “This plan is ambitious, but feasible and realistic,” said Filip Ivanović, Deputy Prime Minister of Montenegro for Foreign Policy and European Affairs in his key note speech at the Bucharest Forum of the Aspen Institute and the German Marshall Fund of the USA, on 25.10.2024. “Thanks to our British friends who left the EU and left an empty chair,” he joked.
Public support is particularly important for the government of Montenegro, where 80% of the population is in favor of EU membership – across all ethnic, age and professional groups. Not only at the political level in the country’s leadership, but also at the working level among the experts, there is faith in the successful accession to the EU.
The reform plans of all the countries of the Western Balkans, with the exception of BiH, have been approved, which is a condition for receiving financial resources under the EU´s Growth Plan. Montenegro will rely on almost €400 million from the Growth Plan, intending to use the money for infrastructure, green economy, human resources, for links between the Western Balkan countries and between them and the EU, and for strengthening the economic integration of the region in the single market of the EU.
The Montenegrin Deputy Prime Minister F. Ivanović admitted that there may be obstacles or challenges in the process of accession along the lines of political will, but not on the part of Podgorica, but on the part of individual member countries. There are some open questions related to administrative capacity, but they are being resolved with the help of the EC and EU member states, from which long-term experts on closing the negotiation chapters (in this year and the following years) are invited through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
However, he issued a strong warning that after all the efforts made so far, if the accession process is delayed, blocked or postponed again, it will be permanently suspended. “At all levels in the EU it must be understood that if the accession plan fails and the Western Balkans are left outside the EU for a long time, other players will enter the region and Europe will lose its influence in the Western Balkans, i.e. in Europe itself”, believes the Montenegrin Deputy Prime Minister, who is of the opinion that the integration process must develop quickly and confidently, so as not to leave room for foreign influence.
