Thewesternbalkans.
Kosovo’s national elections have weakened the ruling Vetëvendosje (VV) party, while opposition parties have gained ground. Prime Minister Albin Kurti has lost 100,000 votes compared to the 2021 elections, making it unlikely for him to form a government. Bedri Hamza, mayor of Mitrovica and a former finance minister, emerges as the most viable candidate to lead a new coalition.
Scenario 1: Opposition Forms a Government
The opposition parties PDK, LDK, and AAK, along with smaller minority parties, could secure 63–64 MPs, enough for a governing majority.
PDK, led by Hamza, has the strongest position, with a campaign centered on economic reforms and repairing relations with the West.
LDK and AAK would need to agree on a joint political agenda, ensuring stability at least until the 2026 presidential elections.
Scenario 2: Political Deadlock and Snap Elections
Kurti is unlikely to concede and may attempt to poach MPs from the opposition.
If both Kurti and the opposition fail to form a government, Kosovo’s constitution mandates snap elections, similar to Israel and Bulgaria’s repeated election cycles.
Kurti may be betting on voter frustration with a divided opposition to regain lost support in a future election.
What’s at Stake?
Kosovo faces critical economic and diplomatic challenges, including strained relations with the EU and the U.S. Prolonged instability could delay reforms, damage international credibility, and exhaust public patience. The key question is whether opposition leaders seize the moment to govern or if Kosovo is dragged into a cycle of political crises and snap elections.
