Prospects for the establishment of a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in the Black Sea Region

Kostadin Dinov

Exclusively for Thewesternbalkans

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which entered into force in 1970 and was signed by 190 states, is the main universal treaty underlying the existing regime of guarantees for the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and disarmament in the world.

According to the NPT, the five Nuclear-Weapon States (NWS), which are also permanent members of the UN Security Council (the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France), are obliged to follow a policy of reducing and eliminating their own nuclear arsenals, while the remaining Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS) are committed not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons and to use nuclear technologies only for peaceful purposes.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is an autonomous international organization within the UN, established in 1957. The IAEA is tasked with promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy, as well as technically ensuring (through its established safeguards system of inspections on how the States comply with their NPT commitments) the prevention of unauthorized acquisition and use of nuclear material or nuclear energy and facilities for military purposes.

One way to strengthen global trends in nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament is the so-called regional approach, set out in Article VII of the NPT, namely: “Nothing in this Treaty shall affect the right of any group of States to conclude regional agreements with a view to securing the complete absence of nuclear weapons in their respective territories.”

UN General Assembly Resolution 3742 defines Nuclear Weapon Free Zones (NWFZ) as zones recognized by the General Assembly in which a group of sovereign states conclude a treaty or convention that: (i) sets up the statute of total absence of nuclear weapons to which the zone shall be subject, including a procedure for the delimitation of the zone, and (ii) establishes an international system of verification and control to guarantee compliance with the obligations deriving from that statute.

There are currently 5 such zones established by the relevant treaties in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, the South Pacific region, Southeast Asia and Central Asia.

Currently, there are no NWFZs in Europe, although similar attempts were made in Northern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and even in the Balkans during the Cold War [1].

The creation of an NWFZ in the Middle East region has been discussed since the end of the last century. A resolution on the issue was adopted only at the UN General Assembly in 2017. As discussed, it is not realistic to adopt a unanimous decision to create an NWFZ in the Middle East, mainly due to the disagreement of one of the regional countries that has not signed the NPT (Israel), and the abstention, for the time being, of other UN Security Council member states.

However, attempts and encouragement by the international community to create such a zone continue. At all NPT-related forums in recent years, including the NPT Review Conference (RevCon) in New York (August 1–26, 2022) and the IAEA General Conference in September 2022, working groups have been established and resolutions considered, but all of them have a predetermined end.

One of the paragraphs of the final report of the Tenth NPT Review Conference, supported by several countries, including the USA, France, and China, states: “The Conference confirms the importance of establishing NWFZs where they do not exist, including in the Middle East.” Such an interpretation may raise interest in a future request for similar zones in certain areas, e.g. within Europe.

The prospect of such a zone could also be considered for the countries of the Black Sea basin region, which include three types of countries:

• non-aligned countries, such as Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova (member of the TPNW – see below);
• NATO member countries, such as Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey.
• Russia, which is a NWS.

Such a proposal would seem a bit strange or even confusing at first glance, due to factors and reasons as described below:

• The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the currently ongoing war considerably changes the European security landscape and complicates any eventual moves in the direction of an NWFZ in the region.
• At the same time, there have been some contradictions and contingencies, including several statements by officials in Kiev about an interest in acquiring nuclear weapons. Although Ukraine was highly critical of the NPT, referring to the “challenges of its integrity,” the Ukrainian delegation at the 76th session of the UN General Assembly in December 2021 firmly stated, “the importance of the NWFZ, which should be established on the basis of agreements with the countries of the region.” [2]
• The presence of NATO member countries in the region – Bulgaria and Romania.
• A country like Turkey, which is a party to the NPT but is one of the five NATO member states that have historically hosted American nuclear warheads on their territory for half a century.
• Territories of Russia bordering the Black Sea, where it is assumed that nuclear delivery vehicles and charges could be deployed.

Some of the opportunities and advantages that the possible creation of the NWFZ opens for the countries in the Black Sea region are:

• NATO member states, such as Bulgaria and Romania, are parties to the NPT and pursue an active policy on arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.
• It is believed that the deployment of nuclear weapons in five NATO member states, including Turkey, does not violate the provisions of the NPT, since the nuclear arsenals in those countries are owned and controlled by the United States.
• The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), recently signed by 94 countries and entered into force in January 2021, provides another motive for such an initiative in the Black Sea region. Although NATO and the NWS generally do not agree with the complete elimination of nuclear weapons, their stance toward the TPNW has softened in recent years. In September 2020, fifty‐six former presidents, prime ministers, foreign ministers, and defense ministers from 20 NATO states, along with Japan and South Korea, released an open letter imploring current leaders to “show courage and boldness” and join the TPNW [3].
• Such an initiative can be seen as a wake-up call for the forgotten movements for nuclear deterrence and disarmament in a situation that, in the last couple of years, some politicians have compared to the Cuban Missile Crisis. In Europe (and not only there) – an increased risk of a possible future nuclear war has been discussed.
• Although studies by the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) and the Leibniz Institute HSFK on the problems and chances of creating a European NWFZ indicate relevant risks and the possibility of encountering resistance from some NWS, such an initiative is in full compliance with Article IV of the NPT and deserves full engagement.
• Such an initiative creates a new and important moment for NATO member states such as Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece. The process of deepening international and regional security involves the promotion of peaceful conflict resolution. This idea will help these countries not to have nuclear weapons deployed on their territories while remaining NATO members. The initiative to create a zone free of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, in the countries of the Black Sea region would have a positive, consolidating effect on the situation in these countries in forming long-term policies and strategies. The prerequisites for the priority development and growth of the economy, tourism, and intensification of economic relations among the countries in the region will be strengthened.
• If such an initiative is supported by Ukraine, it could be a better alternative than some calls by its politicians for nuclear deterrence of Russia and for its entry into NATO, which would result in the escalation of the existing “gunpowder” situation in the region. Ukraine may be interested in using the current window of opportunity created by the peace initiative of the US President Trump, also by reinstating its interest in establishing an NWFZ on all the territories that were part of the country until 2014, and to seek a security guarantee at a broad international level, including from the NWS.
• At the G7 summit in Hiroshima in May 2023, the leaders of the seven richest nations called for a “world without nuclear weapons,” urging Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea to stop nuclear escalation and embrace non-proliferation [4]. These calls largely coincide with the idea that a “world without nuclear weapons” can be achieved primarily through the establishment of regional zones that meet these criteria. In this context, the establishment of a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in the Black Sea region could be a regional approach to strengthening the global non-proliferation regime and disarmament norms, including the elimination of weapons of mass destruction, reducing regional risks, and consolidating international efforts for peace and security.
• The new US administration has taken the first steps towards reducing investments in rebuilding the nation’s nuclear deterrent and nuclear energy spending, hoping to gain commitments from US adversaries to cut their own spending. On February 13, US President Donald Trump said that he wants to renew nuclear arms control talks with Russia and China, and he ultimately hopes that all three countries will agree to halve their huge defense budgets [5].

Author’s bio:

Kostadin Dinov is a Bulgarian-born nuclear expert who worked for 18 years at the IAEA, Vienna. He holds two Doctoral degrees, respectively from the Moscow Power Engineering Institute in nuclear engineering and from the University of Tokyo in quantum engineering and system sciences. He worked as an associate professor at the INRNE of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences until 1998, when he joined the IAEA as a nuclear safeguards inspector. His last position at the IAEA until 2017 was head of training development in the respective section of the IAEA Safeguards Department, tailored to training and preparation of IAEA nuclear inspectors and the staff of Member States to fulfill their missions in non-proliferation globally. He has also worked as a chief scientist on nuclear energy R&D in several nuclear research centers and enterprises in Bulgaria, Sweden, and Japan. He is currently engaged in consulting.

[1] https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/sa/sa_98pns01.html#txt4.

[2] https://peacehumanity.org/south-east-europe-black-sea-region-issue-1/

[3] The Peace & security monitor, Issue 1, Dec. 2021

[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-leaders-call-world-without-nuclear-weapons-statement-2023-05-19/

[5] The Guardian, 13 Feb. 2025