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The evolving U.S. policy towards Serbia under Donald Trump’s second term suggests a recalibration of Washington’s approach to the Balkans. This shift is not solely geopolitical but also deeply intertwined with economic interests and personal networks within Trump’s inner circle.
Strategic Economic Interests
A key indicator of this transformation is the renewed push for constructing Trump Tower in Belgrade. Initially stalled in 2012, the project has gained momentum, largely due to the influence of Richard Grenell, Trump’s former special envoy for Serbia and Kosovo. Grenell, now appointed as the president’s envoy for special missions, has cultivated strong ties with Serbian leadership, including President Aleksandar Vučić and Foreign Minister Marko Đurić. His direct involvement underscores how economic deals and political maneuvering are increasingly merging in U.S.-Serbia relations.
The Trump Tower deal, reportedly valued at half a billion dollars, involves the Serbian government, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Arab investors. Beyond its economic impact, this agreement could serve as a symbol of deepening U.S.-Serbia ties under Trump’s administration, potentially shifting Serbia further from European influence.
Political Alignments and Diplomatic Signals
The potential appointment of Rod Blagojević, the former governor of Illinois, as U.S. ambassador to Serbia is another significant development. A controversial figure pardoned by Trump after serving time for corruption, Blagojević’s Serbian heritage and personal indebtedness to Trump make him a strategically useful ally. His recent rhetoric, particularly his apology to Vučić for NATO’s 1999 intervention in Serbia, signals a potential realignment in U.S. policy—one that may challenge existing Western efforts to stabilize the region.
Blagojević’s presence, alongside Grenell, at Serbian-American political events in the U.S. suggests a coordinated effort to rally diaspora support and solidify Trump’s backing among Serbian nationalist circles. This approach aligns with Vučić’s increasing nationalist rhetoric, possibly as a means to deflect from internal political pressures, including mass civil protests.
Geopolitical Consequences and Regional Stability
Analysts, including Kurt Bassuener from the Council for Democratisation and Policies, warn that Trump’s Balkan strategy—driven by figures like Grenell, Kushner, and Blagojević—could embolden Serbian expansionist ambitions. Given Serbia’s tense relations with Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, a more Serbia-friendly U.S. administration could exacerbate regional tensions, further delaying Kosovo-Serbia normalization.
Recent statements from Serbian officials, such as referring to Kosovo as “our southern province,” reinforce concerns that Trump’s policies could indirectly support Belgrade’s stronger stance against Kosovo. With Grenell’s history of criticizing Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti and Blagojević’s inflammatory rhetoric, the potential for renewed instability in the Western Balkans appears to be increasing. Some experts are even expecting Grenell to prepare a direct deal with Vucic, similar to the direct communication between Washington and Moscow.
Conclusion: A Calculated Realignment with High Risks
Trump’s emerging Balkan strategy reflects a blend of economic opportunism and political realignment. While it strengthens U.S.-Serbia relations, it simultaneously risks alienating Kosovo and exacerbating regional instability. If Trump’s administration continues to prioritize personal and business interests alongside diplomatic strategy, the Western Balkans could see a shift that reshapes power dynamics in the region—potentially reversing years of diplomatic progress.
