Thewesternbalkans
The Western counteraction to Russian influence in the Balkans is entering an acute phase – it is not only about influence, but also a lot of money.
The EU Strategy for the Adriatic-Ionian Region and the EU Strategy for the Danube Region include strengthening economic and political cooperation between the countries of the region, increasing the resilience of energy systems and creating transport infrastructure. One of the main goals of these strategies is to increase the energy independence of the countries of the region.
With a view to eliminating dependence on Russia, the Serbian government is actively working to strengthen ties with the European Union. The Ministry of European Integration of Serbia is implementing the Integration Program, which includes not only a policy of EU approximation, but also economic diversification, including moving away from Russian dependence. However, this process is hampered by existing economic ties and historical relations with Russia. Serbia has begun to adopt legislative measures and energy strategies, which include measures to increase the share of renewable energy sources, as well as the development of alternative gas supply routes.
Serbia, like several other Balkan countries, is considering the possibility of switching to liquefied natural gas (LNG), which would allow it to reduce its dependence on traditional sources (including Russian gas).
In this context, LNG is becoming a priority direction, as it allows countries in the region to diversify their sources of energy supply.
The EU is actively promoting projects in Serbia and the Balkans related to LNG infrastructure. For example, the construction of LNG terminals creates new opportunities for gas supplies from other countries, such as the United States, Qatar and Norway.
While the EU seeks to reduce the dependence of countries in Eastern and Southern Europe on Russian energy resources, the distribution of spheres of influence may have a place in the agreements between Moscow and Washington, as long as this is beneficial to their interests.
For example, in May it became known that the American investment company Elliott Investment Management of billionaire Paul Singer, who financially supports the Republicans, was negotiating with the Bulgarian government to acquire a share in the portfolio of infrastructure assets of the Bulgarian transmission operator Bulgartransgaz. This includes the expansion of the Turkish Stream in Bulgaria, referred to by Bulgarian authorities as the Balkan Stream. This is the last stretch of infrastructure that is currently Gazprom’s only access to the European market. Such a deal – if it aims to preserve the only operating gas pipeline for Gazprom to access the European market – would contradict the European Commission’s strategy to end Russian gas imports to the EU by 2027. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rossen Zhelezkov said in October in New York that Bulgaria would stop the transit of Russian gas via Balkan Stream from 2026, but Bulgarian officials have not announced the fate of the pipes themselves.
The authorities in Belgrade, for their part, are also waiting for Moscow and Washington to decide on the Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS). The whole NIS saga began in January 2025, after the US decided to impose sanctions on Serbia’s oil refinery. Since then, the Vucic administration has repeatedly tried to postpone the restrictions aimed at the squeeze-out of Russian ownership in NIS. After yet another postponement, the US Treasury Department issued a new special license, postponing the full imposition of sanctions against NIS until October 8, 2025.
According to leaked media reports, some of them deliberately spread, there are several options for the future of NIS:
– Gazprom sells its shares in NIS to American or British companies.
Unofficially, one of the Russian proposals is for an American company to buy out the 11.3% of the shares that Gazprom transferred to its subsidiary Intelligence, but the extent to which both parties would be willing to do this remains unclear.
A new player has recently emerged as a likely contender for the Russian shares – Flystar Flight Support, a subsidiary of the UK-based aviation services company Menzies. The company has been operating in Serbia since 2022 and has 13 employees. According to the registration, it provides aviation services, including business aviation, corporate and private flights, cargo flights, diplomatic flights, medical flights and humanitarian flights. The company serves all countries of the former Yugoslavia and Albania. On September 4, the company received a 10-year license for trading in crude oil and petroleum products from the Serbian Energy Agency. This is the first time that Flystar Flight Support has applied for and received licenses for trading and storing crude oil and petroleum products from the competent Serbian authorities, after meeting all the necessary conditions.
– Nationalization of NIS.
The nationalization of NIS can be interpreted as an attempt to minimize the impact of Western sanctions and protect elements of the national economy. This action can also be seen as an attempt to eliminate Russian interests and actions.
Although it was officially announced that the nationalization is aimed at protecting the economy from sanctions, the real consequences will be the release of the company’s activities from Russian jurisdiction and preparation for deepening cooperation with Western countries. It is possible that Russian shareholders will be forced to leave the Serbian market, which opens up an opportunity for Western investors.
– Retaining Russian ownership, but with NIS using American crude oil. According to Tanjug, the Russian side in the negotiations on American sanctions is proposing that NIS purchase American oil, which would be one of the solutions to this situation.
The essence of the potential deal would be that the authorities in Belgrade have agreed to buy American oil through the Croatian Adriatic pipeline JANAF. The exact volumes of oil deliveries are still unclear. If the US accepts this proposal, it means that NIS will buy a significant volume of American oil and deliver it through JANAF, where it will be mixed with other raw materials and included in the so-called NIS oil basket. NIS cannot fully turn to refining American oil, since the Serbian refinery is not technologically designed for this.
The possible loss of control by Gazprom over NIS and the sale of its shares to British or American businesses, combined with the Serbian government starting to buy American oil, could seriously weaken the Kremlin’s influence over Serbian president Alexandar Vučić. If such a decision is made, it would be a clear victory for American lobbyists. The lack of control over NIS means the loss of Russian soft power in the Balkans, as the company implements Russian humanitarian projects. Gazprom, meanwhile, will continue to profit as before.
President Aleksandar Vučić spoke intermittently on the topic of NIS, always giving mixed and even contradictory messages: he stated that the US would impose sanctions on the oil company, since he did not believe that the Americans would agree to a Russian offer to buy out their shares in the company; at the same time, he expressed hope that the problem would be resolved without nationalizing NIS; he emphasized that Russia would not allow anyone to seize NIS; “There are millions of friends around the world who would like to help us and pay above market price for NIS, but the Russians do not want that.”
The Americans and the Russians, on their part, are too restrained in their statements. Apparently, the bidding for NIS is in full swing and Vučić is confident that it will not come to the point where Serbs will buy fuel in cans and Coca-Cola bottles, as during the embargo against Yugoslavia in the 1990s.
Photo: NIS
