Thewestwrnbalkans
Objectives and motivation of Beijing in the activities in the Western Balkans
The key position of the Western Balkans (WB) as an important transport corridor defines the importance of the region for the long-term infiltration and presence of China and securing access to the EU market. The WB countries do not have an independent role in Beijing’s geopolitical priorities, but are part of Beijing’s long-term strategy to build Chinese-funded transport infrastructure in Southeast Europe, connecting ports, capitals and important socio-economic hubs in the region. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a major mechanism for realizing China’s ambitions to revive Eurasia’s role as the world’s largest economic market and exit the dollar-based global financial system.
China’s economic relations with the WB countries serve as a field for testing the capabilities of Chinese companies in the European market, experimenting with different models of cooperation to find a working formula for future partnership with major European countries, and taking economic positions with a view to the expected accession of the Western Balkan countries to the EU.
In addition to the development of the economic corridor, the WB serve China as a field for competition with Western influence. By focusing on economic ties, Beijing diverts the attention of the international community from structured political strategy to the more innocuous area of trade.
China’s economic interests and objectives within the BRI are closely related to its security interests. This unannounced layer of the BRI is gaining increasing importance and coming to the fore, with the Chinese leadership in the next stage making increasing efforts to formalize and institutionalize it.
The growing dependence of the Balkan countries on Chinese finances allows China to gain political support on sovereignty issues (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang and the South China Sea). Some of the BRI projects planned and implemented in the Balkans are commercially controversial and unprofitable. They demonstrate that China’s geopolitical interests and energy policy trump commercial interests, seeking to counterbalance Western general values and promote Chinese values.
China’s economic pressure on the WB countries is a key component of Beijing’s hybrid strategy towards them. This economic pressure takes place in two main ways:
First, investments in critical infrastructures to influence the overall development of the countries of the region. This leads to high indebtedness of smaller partners and greater political dependence of individual countries. For example, Montenegro is subject to a Chinese debt trap, as Chinese loans have raised the country’s indebtedness to 80% of GDP and Podgorica has crossed the threshold of macroeconomic sustainability.
Second, concluding large-scale and opaque bilateral treaties containing hidden dependencies, compensation amounts, and jurisdictional traps. For example, the contract for the construction of the Bar-Bojare highway in Montenegro contains clauses, allowing China to seize part of the highway and the port in Bar. The Parliament of Montenegro was not timely informed about the financial parameters, and the signing of the contract on the territory of the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China creates problems regarding the jurisdiction of decisions on future disputes.
China’s investments in the energy, transport and trade sectors in the Balkans form cross-border clusters and investment networks that gradually grow into regional Chinese assets, and in some sectors China has already secured dominant positions in terms of production, consumption and distribution, which are transformed into political influence.
As a result of a negative perception of the BRI among the countries participating in the WB (caused by the fatigue of unfulfilled Chinese promises and debt crises) and the pressure of the US and the West, Chinese penetration in the WB adopted new directions: diversification of expansion (shifting from primary to secondary infrastructure, deployment of commercial, economic and investment networks, diversification of funding); internationalization of BRI projects; institutionalization of the activity.
