Thewesternbalkans
The candidacies of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were officially confirmed at the Democratic and Republican national conventions and the race is expected to be tight. Trump was leading in the polls before the withdrawal of Joe Biden, who decided not to seek re-election last month under pressure from allies due to age and health – related concerns. Last pools give between 2 and 4 % lead position to Kamala Harris.
A lot of political experts started talking about the influence of the results from the coming elections in the USA on the Western Balkans.
Some of them think that a second presidential term of Donald Trump would be interpreted as “good news” by the nationalist politicians in the Western Balkans. They would see him as a powerful ally in the implementation of their political agendas. If Trump wins, there will be a strengthening of those political forces that lean towards this new conservative nationalism and who feel anger at the economic, political and cultural consequences of liberalism in the form practiced over the last thirty to forty years. In this case, Trump will be seen as some kind of inspiration. The Trump administration would potentially be an attractive partner for the Western Balkan countries due to growing disillusionment with the EU. This has already been seen during Trump’s first term when Skopje and many other Balkan capitals, disappointed in the EU, accepted that the United States would embrace them, especially in the security domain.
Analysts also believe that, if the Republican nominee Trump wins the election, there is a possibility of the “revival” of the so-called Washington Agreement on the normalisation of economic relations between Belgrade and Pristina, signed in the autumn of 2020. The experts agree that the former Special Envoy of Donald Trump for the Belgrade – Pristina Dialogue, Richard Grenell, would have an important role in the creation and implementation of Washington’s policy towards the Western Balkans if Trump succeeds in getting a new term. Grenell is considered to be a fierce Trump loyalist, and he was also the US Ambassador in Berlin. It is speculated that he could become the next US Secretary of State if the Republican nominee wins the election.
For Grenell himself, the Serbia and Kosovo dispute is particularly important. In his public statements, he referred to his work on the issue in the last term, which indicates that he sees it as a way to promote himself. If we look at the economic blockades that the Kurti government is conducting against the Serb community in Kosovo, the economic provisions of this agreement may even be useful, and the issue of protecting Serbian religious and cultural heritage may be interesting for the Trump government as it fits with the Christian preferences of his evangelist voters.
Some political scientists think that Trump is the sort of politician that is very familiar in the Balkans – including his mixing of the personal and family business with his elected office. The business deals his son-in-law Jared Kushner and daughter Ivanka have engaged in Belgrade and off Vlora in Albania recently demonstrate that.
They also remember that during Trump’s administration, the US actively engaged in support of the “land swap”, that is “adjustment of the administrative line”, or “border correction”, commonly noted as the partition of Kosovo. This concept was proposed by Serbian President Vučić and then-President of Kosovo Thaçi in 2018, which was also backed by EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini’s office, but not with the agreement of many member states.
In contrast, the victory of the Democratic nominee Harris could accelerate the EU-Atlantic integration processes in the region. Still, it is yet to be seen what her foreign policy priorities are, since she has not yet specified her key points in this domain.
On the other hand, the election of Kamala Harris would imply a certain continuity with the policy of the current President Joseph Biden, as well as a chance to redefine Euro-Atlantic policy, and a possible acceleration of the EU and NATO path of the Western Balkans countries the experts say. In the same sound, some experts consider that “President Biden was very positive concerning the transatlantic relations, which also includes attention to what is happening in the Balkans”.
In June 2024, Biden extended for another year the Executive Order on the emergency situation for the Balkans, because, as he claims, the situation in the region continues to pose a threat to the US national security and foreign policy. The White House reported that “the actions of persons threatening the peace and international stabilization efforts in the Western Balkans, including acts of extremist violence and obstructionist activity, and the situation in the Western Balkans, which stymies progress toward effective and democratic governance and full integration into transatlantic institutions, continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States”.
During his presidency, Biden twice organised the Summit for Democracy, which also included leaders from the region, including the President of Serbia. Also, he often pointed out that it is necessary to counter the “malign influence of Russia” in the Western Balkans.
Experts believe that, there are several causes for hope for the people dissatisfied with the Biden administration policies. First, she is a high-level former prosecutor – and the political elite/business/organized crime nexus prevalent throughout the region is one that she would be able to recognize. There can be no real progress until there is a transatlantic commitment to directly confront this, rather than collaborate with and attempt to manage it.
Harris would be new in the executive role, but European allies would breathe a sigh of relief if she were elected. She would then have the ability to help define an agenda that will still be being set on this side of the Atlantic.
The experts believe that in such a case there would be a real chance to revisit the central premise of Western engagement in the Western Balkans since 1999, further formalised at Thessaloniki – that the potential of joining the EU would impel entrenched elites in the region to do the heavy lifting. We have almost two decades of evidence that this, as currently configured, is not working. So, the methods, not the goals – need a thorough rethink and Harris would be positioned to make that assertion to her counterparts.
Maybe she will exert more pressure on Belgrade to finally recognise the independent status of Kosovo, but first she will be engaged in Middle East politics. In the long run, coming from California, her orientation will be similar to former President Obama, which also includes the long-term economic and political rivalry with China, but not at the cost of worsening relations with Europe.
Harris’ foreign policy record suggests focus on China, Indo-Pacific.
Recently released Democratic National Committee (DNC) policy Platform has garnered attention for featuring Europe at the top of its chapter on foreign affairs. But the document was written and voted before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and contains several references to a “second Biden term.”
The DNC’s 2024 Platform sparked speculation that U.S. foreign policy under a Harris administration might pivot from the Indo-Pacific to Europe. However, the Vice President’s track record shows deep involvement and prioritization of the region.
Kamala Harris would likely prioritize countering China and strengthening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region if she were to win the White House.
She pushed some of the most important legislation on China, highlighting her co-sponsorship of legislation on the special administrative region of Hong Kong and China’s autonomous region of Xinjiang. Harris has spent a lot of time over the last four years traveling to the region and has “met with just about every Asian leader when she was vice president as senator.”
It is also important to consider Harris’ involvement in the Biden administration’s foreign policy agenda. That administration spent four years deeply involved in the Indo-Pacific with perhaps the most robust Indo-Pacific agenda of any administration, really, in decades.
According to the political scientist, that agenda was particularly focused on building partnerships and alliances.
Examples include AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership with Australia and the United Kingdom, and the Quad, a diplomatic partnership involving Australia, India, and Japan. Such partnerships have been seen as efforts to counter China’s power and influence in the region.
Concerning Europe, in their Platform, democrats believe a united, democratic, and prosperous Europe is vital to the United States. “We believe the transatlantic alliance is the ballast of American global influence. With Europe is the largest economic relationship in the world, making up nearly half of global GDP. NATO is the world’s most formidable military alliance. And together, Europe and USA stand as champions of universal rights and freedoms around the world. Transatlantic cooperation is crucial to addressing almost every global challenge they face”.
Democrats will reinvigorate the transatlantic partnership to repair the damage of the Trump era and preempt the risks of broader structural divergence between the U.S. and Europe. “We will work together with individual European countries and the European Union to counter threats to our democracies and enhance shared resilience against corruption and kleptocracy, the Platform says.
On the other hand we have in the 2024 Republican Party Platform MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN completely different approach. This platform was approved and made public by the Platform committee on July 8, 2024 and formally adopted at the Republican National Convention on July 15, 2024.
In the chapter 10: RETURN TO PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH there are commitments as follow:
“Keeping the American People safe requires a strong America. The Republican Plan is to return Peace through Strength, rebuilding our Military and Alliances, countering China, defeating terrorism, building an Iron Dome Missile Defense Shield, promoting American Values, securing our Homeland and Borders, and reviving our Defense Industrial Base. We will build a Military bigger, better, and stronger than ever before. Our full commitment is to protecting America and ensuring a safe and prosperous future for all.
- The National Interest. Republicans will promote a Foreign Policy centered on the most essential American Interests, starting with protecting the American Homeland, our People, our Borders, our Great American Flag, and our Rights under God.
- Modernize the Military. Republicans will ensure our Military is the most modern, lethal and powerful Force in the World. We will invest in cutting-edge research and advanced technologies, including an Iron Dome Missile Defense Shield, support our Troops with higher pay, and get woke Leftwing Democrats fired as soon as possible.
- Strengthen Alliances. Republicans will strengthen Alliances by ensuring that our Allies must meet their obligations to invest in our Common Defense and by restoring Peace to Europe. We will stand with Israel, and seek peace in the Middle East. We will rebuild our Alliance Network in the Region to ensure a future of Peace, Stability, and Prosperity. Likewise, we will champion Strong, Sovereign, and Independent Nations in the Indo-Pacific, thriving in Peace and Commerce with others.
- Strengthen Economic, Military, and Diplomatic Capabilities. Republicans will strengthen Economic, Military, and Diplomatic capabilities to protect the American way of life from the malign influences of Countries that stand against us around the World.
- Defend America’s Borders. Against all odds, President Trump has completed Hundreds of Miles of Wall, and he will quickly finish the job. Republicans will mobilize Military personnel and assets as necessary to crack down hard on the cartels that traffic drugs and people into our Country.
- Revive our Industrial Base. Our Industrial Base is critical to ensuring good jobs for our people but also the reliable production of vital Defense platforms and supplies. Our Policy must be to revive our Industrial Base, with priority on Defense-critical industries. Equipment and parts critical to American Security must be MADE IN THE USA.
- Protect Critical Infrastructure. Republicans will use all tools of National Power to protect our Nation’s Critical Infrastructure and Industrial Base from malicious cyber actors. This will be a National Priority, and we will both raise the Security Standards for our Critical Systems and Networks and defend them against bad actors.”
Comments: The platforms of the Democratic and Republican parties are aimed primarily and exclusively at American voters. In these documents are developed the way of thinking and the approach of the two candidates for the presidency of the United States for the next five years. This makes them radically different, but the analysis of the ideas laid down in them leads to the following main conclusions:
- Whoever becomes the president of the United States will work above all for the prosperity of his country and people, as well as to protect the exceptional and leadership role of the United States in the world.
- In none of the platforms, the Western Balkans are explicitly stated as a priority of the US foreign policy, but between the lines we can find their place – in the strengthening of NATO, consolidation of the European space, strengthening the positions of the West, respectively of the USA in the global plan etc.
The believes of some politicians (rather, the political scientists gravitating around them) for more opportunities and freedoms for the nationalists will certainly remain a dream, because such freedom will be possible only within the framework of their assigned place in the foreign policy spectrum of the new American administration.
For the Western Balkans, it is clear that EU enlargement (which depends mainly on Brussels and Member States, but is heavily influenced by Washington) and NATO enlargement (which depends exclusively on Washington) will not pass them by. The offensive strategy has been successfully implemented for more than 30 years and has no prospect of stopping until it is fully implemented. In this context, the myth that Donald Trump will lead an isolationist policy will remain only a myth, and Europe and the Balkans in particular are in for interesting times.
One political scientist (Kurt Bassuener, a Senior Associate of the Berlin-based Democratization Policy Council) sad that the prevailing policy, both from Washington and Brussels and most member state capitals, are based on the conclusion that the Balkans are endemically tribal – so they can only be managed. The Biden administration had a chance to confront this, but did not. Instead, there was greater continuity on the ground than many of us had hoped, though at least the partition idea was shelved. But what developed was a Serbia/Vučić-based regional policy, with managerial efforts throughout the rest of the region.
But also for Europe, the example of the implementation of the Anti-Inflation Act in the USA is still fresh.
