Thewesternbalkans
2. Arms export to Ukraine?
The production and export of ammunition and armaments from Bosnia and Herzegovina has experienced significant growth in recent years, especially in 2023. The country has inherited a powerful arms industry from the days of the former Yugoslavia and continues to be an important exporter of arms and ammunition, particularly to international markets.
There is no officially confirmed data from the Bosnian authorities or international organizations on the export of ammunition from Bosnia and Herzegovina to Ukraine. However, in recent years there have been reports that weapons from former Yugoslav states, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, have reached Ukraine, but through third countries or intermediaries.
The export of ammunition from BiH to Ukraine has polarized the political scene in the Balkan country since 2015. The leadership of the Republika Srpska imposed a decision of the Presidency not to export weapons and military equipment to the Ukrainian conflict zone. RS President Milorad Dodik points out that despite the decision of the Presidency, the Muslim-Croat Federation is increasing the supply of ammunition and weapons to Ukraine, simply ignoring the legal ban of the Presidency. The opponents in Sarajevo believe that there is no ban and that the issue of arms exports to Ukraine is being politicized by Milorad Dodik’s ruling Republika Srpska party – SNSD. They argue that BiH already exports weapons to countries with conflicts. For example, orders of huge value are executed for the warring parties in Yemen.
In recent months, the export of arms from BiH has increased extremely, and for the first half of 2024 it has doubled compared to the same period of 2023. Even officially, Sarajevo is talking about “expansion of the weapons industry” in the country. Over 70% of military exports consist of ammunition, the remainder is explosives and 1% weapons. Experts from the Republika Srpska suspect that the US, with a share of nearly a third of the purchase of Bosnian ammunition of Soviet samples, is re-exporting it to Ukraine through contractors. They remind that Ultra Defense Corp of Florida has confirmed that over the past twenty years BiH has been among the countries that have provided about 90% of the ammunition purchased by the Pentagon for the combat operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria.
In addition, American firms have recently begun buying up shares in Bosnian military industry enterprises. The company Regulus Global, working in cooperation with the U.S. Special Operations Command, in April 2024 took over 33 percent of the shares of PRETIS DD Vogošća and a minority package of shares from BINAS DD Bugojno. For the USA, the military production of BiH and its approach to NATO are of particular interest, therefore it is not excluded that the head of the CIA, William Burns, discussed this topic during his recent several-hour stay in Sarajevo on August 20.
Bosnian munitions have already been spotted and documented in Ukraine, including production in 2022 and 2023, although no treaty has been signed between the two countries. Incidentally, some of the ammunition was wrongly attributed to Serbia, which further attracted media attention.
NATO countries can be expected to make the process of supplying Bosnian arms to Ukraine more efficient and regular, moving from ad hoc initiatives to a more systematic engagement with the Bosnian arms industry.
The question is to what extent the capacity of BiH’s military industry can meet the increasing needs of Ukraine. In the last year or two, almost all companies in the sector have made efforts to increase the number of workers and/or switch to a two-shift mode of work. IGMAN DD Konjic is looking for at least 76 new workers this year, and BINAS DD Bugojno even plans to double the number of workers by the end of the year. Some of the companies manage to increase production, based on available experience, expertise and know-how. 90% of the necessary raw materials are local, as BiH has a highly developed mining industry. An advantage for BiH is the relatively cheap labor force. However, manufacturers also need capital funds to finance plant and equipment upgrades, increase labor productivity, and hire new workers. So far, the state has been understanding by encouraging reinvestment and not siphoning off businesses. There is also institutional support from NATO Headquarters Sarajevo, which has the primary mission to advise and assist all institutions and the authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina on defense and security sector reform. Support is also coming from individual NATO countries, such as the initiative of the Czech Republic to procure ammunition outside NATO and the EU, in countries such as BiH and South Korea.
Ideally, BiH could obtain capital to increase military production, both on NATO standards and on Soviet models, needed for Ukraine, through a possible agreement with NATO or the EU to supply ammunition to Ukraine. Such a contract would also be a sign of the EU and NATO’s confidence in Sarajevo. The financing problem can also be solved by increasing the ownership of Western, particularly American, companies in the Bosnian military-industrial sector, more than half of which is in state hands. The first steps for this have already been taken. In this way, Dodik’s resistance to exports will be overcome.
Western military concerns, however, are unlikely to be interested in an excessive expansion of Eastern European competition. Russia’s reaction must also be assessed, which is sure to follow and may be very subtle.
BiH produces and exports weapons and ammunition to a large number of crisis areas, but in the case of Ukraine this will not be direct. The problem is not in the plausible denial of supplies (as this can be done by expanding contracts with NATO countries), but in their urgency – whether BiH can produce and deliver an additional 500-600 shells per day.
The surge in ammunition exports from Bosnia and Herzegovina shows that the country remains an important player in the international arms market, especially in the context of growing demand for military equipment due to global geopolitical tensions.
Foto: Pexels
