Thewesternbalkans
The Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, a focal point of regional stability in the Balkans, has witnessed a serious deterioration in the political and security landscape of Kosovo over the past two years, particularly in its northern Kosovo. The mass departure of Kosovo Serbs from state institutions and law enforcement has precipitated a crisis in both the judiciary and security sectors, exacerbating the existing social schism between Kosovo Albanians and Kosovo Serbs. Despite mounting criticism from opposition factions, the Kosovo government has successfully maintained its political majority and the ruling coalition still stand strong, albeit amidst a fragile yet ostensibly calm security environment.
The ongoing eviction of Kosovo Serb residents, driven by expropriation of property and a ban on the import of Serbian goods, further complicates the already tense situation. The member states of the European Union’s stance on measures against Kosovo remain divided on the cancellation of the measures against Kosovo, reflecting a lack of consensus among EU member states. This discord is mirrored in Serbia’s increasing assertiveness in Northern Kosovo, which continues to strain relations between Belgrade and Pristina.
Simultaneously, Serbia’s reluctance to align with EU positions on critical geopolitical issues, such as the crises in Russia, Venezuela, and Iran, has strained its relations with the EU. The Kosovo Prime Minister’s refusal to engage in a tripartite meeting with EU envoy Miroslav Lajcak and President Aleksandar Vucic underscores the complexities of the dialogue process. His stipulation of conditions—such as the official signing of the European Agreement and the withdrawal of a contentious letter from former Prime Minister Ana Brnabic—has been met with resistance from Serbia, given the political and constitutional constraints involved.
This impasse is further exacerbated by divergent preconditions set by both capitals, rendering meaningful dialogue and the normalization of relations nearly impossible without mutual compromise. Concerns are mounting over potential unilateral actions that could escalate tensions, such as the anticipated opening of a bridge in North Mitrovica.
Looking ahead, even after the elections in Kosovo scheduled for February 2025, substantial progress in the dialogue seems unlikely. The Kurti-Osmani coalition is expected to maintain its hardline stance towards Belgrade, while the Serbian government is likely to continue its current policies without significant alteration. The EU’s priority must be to mitigate unilateral actions that could destabilize the region further, focusing on the technical aspects of the dialogue and addressing bilateral issues incrementally.
The EU’s internal divisions regarding the approach to Kosovo and Serbia complicate the situation, with member states split on whether to lift sanctions against Kosovo. This ongoing deadlock necessitates a fresh perspective and renewed dynamism from the EU, which must apply pressure on both parties to foster political will for the Agreement’s implementation.
Comment
Despite the geopolitical complexities, the EU-facilitated dialogue remains the sole viable pathway forward, even if immediate breakthroughs appear distant. The EU’s strategy requires re-evaluation, particularly in light of the potential implications of the upcoming US elections, which could alter the dynamics of international engagement in the region. The prospect of Donald Trump returning to power may embolden Serbian President Vucic to exploit the situation, especially if Richard Grenell, a figure with favourable views towards Vucic, re-enters the fray as a mediator.
In contrast, Albin Kurti is unlikely to shift his approach towards Serbia, as it aligns with the sentiments of his electoral base. As Kosovo approaches its elections, the possibility of unilateral actions from Pristina aimed at international recognition could further complicate the bilateral and regional landscape, ultimately hindering the broader European integration aspirations of the Western Balkans.
