Thewesternbalkans.
The U.S. Treasury Department has lifted sanctions on ousted Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik and 48 other individuals from his party, family members and companies linked to him, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced on October 29.
It is an unexpected but sharp U-turn by Washington in Bosnia and Herzegovina that portends a tremor throughout the Balkans. For years, Milorad Dodik was labeled the most prominent pro-Russian leader in the Balkans and demonized by the West as a “Kremlin agent” and a “separatist.” Now, suddenly, this same man and his circle are no longer a problem. OFAC did not explain why it lifted sanctions on Dodik and his entourage. There is no explanation for the motives for Washington’s move. There is a statement from the State Department that does not provide many details.
Dodik interprets this as a major victory for him and his associates. He publicly stated that he considered himself morally rehabilitated.
This is the second attempt by the Trump administration to shape its own policy in the Balkans in the past two months. The first move was the suspension of negotiations on a strategic partnership with Kosovo. These are definitely signs of Trump’s future policy in SEE and the Balkans.
Important signals
The lifting of sanctions against some of the leaders of Republika Srpska was done without consulting or informing the European Union in advance. This step is actually largely against European policy. It was also done without consulting and without coordinating with other countries in the region, including those directly involved in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bosnia and Herzegovina itself, as well as Croatia and Serbia.
According to a written statement by a State Department spokesperson, the sanctions are a response to the withdrawal of objections by the Republika Srpska parliament to several laws recommended by the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In other words, the Republika Srpska parliament did what the High Representative wanted.
The lifting of sanctions could mark the beginning of Dodik’s political rehabilitation, but that depends largely on the courts in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Just months ago, the court removed him from office and banned him from participating in politics.
Possible motives of Washington
The arrival of Trump has given a new impetus to lobbying in the Balkans. Everyone is lobbying in Washington – Albanians from Albania and Kosovo, Serbs from Serbia and RS. The breakthrough happened with Dodik, which is very likely the result of a very intensive and very expensive lobbying campaign by Republika Srpska in the United States, about which there is information in the media. This lobbying campaign was aimed at people from Donald Trump’s immediate circle, some of whom are well-known. Bosnian Serb representatives have stated that they are secretly working to establish “new relations” with Washington. It is clear that Dodik is part of some kind of deal, but it is not clear whether he will abide by the agreements, since he only cares about himself and his own benefit, and not about the terms of any agreement.
On 5 of October 2025 Milorad Dodik said in an interview with TASS after his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin that he asked him not to exclude the Balkan issue from his dialogue with U.S. President Donald Trump and to try to develop lasting solutions. “I additionally asked the president to pay attention to another issue that could be of great importance in the dialogue Russia is having with the U.S. If an agreement is reached between the two world powers, it is extremely important that attention to the Balkans does not diminish. Perhaps the most appropriate solution would be for Russia and the U.S., as part of their final agreement, to create a commission for the Balkans to help ultimately stabilize the situation in the region by developing lasting solutions and properly organizing the states themselves,” said Dodik.
Since Dodik is the closest European politician to Putin, the lifting of US sanctions against him appears to be an attempt by Washington to harmonize its relations with Russia. Such an element of coordination is the overall support of Serbian policy in the region in general and of Aleksandar Vučić in particular by the US. Russia is a traditional supporter of the Serbs in the Balkans, but Beijing also aligned itself with this line with two diplomatic demarches in the last two weeks in favor of the Serbs in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Tuesday met with Serbian Prime Minister Djuro Macut.
The geopolitical realignment in favor of the Serbs in the Balkans is largely due to concerns about the growth of Muslim influence both in the Balkans and throughout the world.
So far, the US administration has essentially refrained from imposing specific interests on the Balkans, other than those of the foreign policy direction set by Barack Obama and Joe Biden. But the Balkans are increasingly becoming a field of struggle for influence between the US, Russia and China. For Washington, the Balkans are a buffer against Russia, and it cannot afford a bloc of pro-Russian players in the region. Dodik has been neutralized and is now on his way to becoming a US partner (as some analysts have always thought). Trump is offering Bosnia a deal on rare metals with common supervision, unlike the EU, and Trump’s attention will soon turn to Vučić and Serbia’s lithium deposits.
New surprises
The first surprising steps by the US in Kosovo and Bosnia could be followed by new surprises, such as an offer to Serbia to join NATO. This would be the ultimate form of pressure on Russia to persuade Putin to stop the war in Ukraine. For Russia, the Balkans are the heart of Orthodoxy and Christianity, but Moscow is making no effort to prepare for the time after Dodik and Vučić. The most sensitive point for Russia in the Balkans is Serbia’s formal agreement to join NATO. NATO membership, or even membership negotiations themselves, would take Serbia out of its fictive neutrality (unlike EU membership negotiations) and put an end to Vučić’s multi-vector policy.
For Moscow, Belgrade’s agreement to join NATO would be a huge political, reputational, and psychological blow. For Trump, this step is associated with less risk than supplying Ukraine with high-tech and powerful weapons or intelligence support.
The EU will have to return to the rule of not accepting new countries into the union before they become NATO members. This will be especially true for the Balkans – in particular Serbia and Kosovo. Regarding the problem of non-recognition of Kosovo by five NATO countries – it will be circumvented with the position that it will be defended not a state, but a territory or space (similar to the Arctic, space, cyberspace).
Why would Vučić accept joining NATO?
Of course, there is the emotional problem for the population of Serbia, which was bombed by NATO 26 years ago. This narrative is supported by the Serbian media, which are controlled by Vučić by 90 percent. At his command, the narrative will be changed and his loyal base will follow.
Vučić is already under enormous internal and external pressure: the internal crisis related to the protests in the country, US sanctions against NIS, a desire for strategic dialogue with the US while maintaining the threat of US tariffs, the total loss of Kosovo under Vučić’s rule. Opening the path of Kosovo to NATO would make formal recognition of Kosovo by Serbia unnecessary, as both countries would become allies in the Alliance. One should not lose sight of Trump’s high popularity in Serbia – the highest among all other countries. Now Vučić does not speak publicly about Serbia’s membership in NATO, but he recently sent Dragan Šutanovac, the former Serbian Defense Minister, who best understands the strategic importance of NATO for Serbia, as his envoy to the US. His priority – not his personal one, but assigned by Vučić – is the development of a strategic dialogue between Serbia and the US. Serbia must accept reality and joining NATO will be a dramatic boost to Serbia’s economy, investment, stability and security. There will also be a boost to the country’s military-industrial complex.
Serbia has signed all standard agreements on cooperation with NATO, bevor membership in the alliance. The Serbian army has already been rebuilt according to NATO standards, and leading positions in the army are occupied by graduates of Western military academies.
A majority of senior Serbian military officials privately approve of NATO membership.
The idea of Serbia’s membership in NATO, no matter how unrealistic it may seem at the moment, is already being considered in American and Atlantic expert circles and attitudes in socio-political circles are being tested. Let us not forget the speed with which the Parliament of Montenegro ratified the NATO membership treaty during Trump’s first term in office in 2017.
A recent unannounced visit by a very senior American diplomat to Kosovo could herald a new surprise in the Balkans. This could be the Trump administration’s third attempt to shape its own policy in the Balkans.
