Thewesternbalkans
The announcement of the new Serbian government is a loud “slap” in the face of the West and the reasons for such a move by the Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić are quite clear. Next week there are two events which are of great importance for Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region – the voting of the resolution for Srebrenica in the UNGA and the vote for the membership of Kosovo in the Council of Europe, both equally important for Serbia (and personally for Vučić), because they might be seen as the first big foreign policy defeat for the Serbian president and his country.
The response of Vučić was quick and had to show to the West that he is angry by the latest developments and still has options which EU and US will not like…
It is clear that the inclusion of Aleksandar Vulin (the former chief of BIA) and Nenad Popovic, both sanctioned by the US, into the new government suggests strengthening of ties with Russia and China, despite Serbia’s formally proclaimed pro-EU path and generally good relations with Washington in the past months. Aleksandar Vulin is expected to become a deputy prime minister and Nenad Popovic a minister without portfolio. Both of them will play the role of bridge between Belgrade and Moscow, and Vučić and Putin. It is still not clear what portfolio will be given to Vulin, when the government is voted today (1st of May) in the Serbian parliament. Vulin has recently received two medals of honor from Russia, one from the Russian Federal Security Service and the other was awarded to him by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Generally, the new Serbian government has a few new names, if one even can call them that – for example, Darko Glishic has been Vučić’s right hand in the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) for years and responsible for all the organizational matters inside the party and all the elections. Nemanja Starovic was a State secretary in the Ministry of foreign affairs and was there to control the work of Ivica Dacic as a Foreign minister, and then was transferred to the Ministry of defense. Dejan Ristic, the Minister of information, which is a new ministry, will be responsible for the full control on the media and the promotion of anti-Western rhetoric and pro-Russian narrative. He will be expected to help with the anti-Srebrenica campaign using the narrative for genocide against the Serbs in the so called Independent State of Croatia (Nezavisna Država Hrvatska – NDH). Milica Đurđević Stamenkovski was the leader of the party “Zavetnici”, which was long known as a creation of Aleksandar Vučić in order to split the far-right nationalistic vote in Serbia. She succeeded in that and even though her party was not able to pass the 3 % threshold she was rewarded with a ministerial post in the government. Zlatibor Lončar is back in the government, in the same position as before (Minister of Health), but he is also long known to have a serious influence in BIA. Ivica Dačić is still in the government as a Deputy Prime Minister and this time as a Minister of Internal Affairs and Bratislav Gašić is back to the Ministry of Defence.
So, if one look at the list of the whole new government, can easily see that it includes the most trusted and loyal people of Aleksandar Vučić:
Siniša Mali – First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance,
Ivica Dačić – Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Internal Affairs,
Irena Vujović – Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Environmental Protection and Water Management,
Aleksandar Vulin – Deputy Prime Minister,
Goran Vesić – Minister of Construction, Transport and Infrastructure,
Dubravka Đedović Handanović – Minister of Mining and Energy,
Tomislav Momirović – Minister of Internal and Foreign Trade,
Maja Popović – Minister of Justice,
Jelena Žarić Kovačević – Minister of State Administration and Local Self-Government,
Tomislav Žigmanov – Minister for Human and Minority Rights and Social Dialogue,
Bratislav Gašić – Minister of Defense,
Marko Đurić – Minister of Foreign Affairs,
Tanja Miščević – Minister for European Integration,
Slavica Đukić Dejanović – Minister of Education,
Adriana Mesarović – Minister of Economy,
Aleksandar Martinović – Minister of Agriculture,
Zlatibor Lončar – Minister of Health,
Nemanja Starović – Minister of Labour, Employment, Veterans and Social Affairs,
Milica Đurđević Stamenkovski – Minister for Family Care and Demography,
Zoran Gajić – Minister of Sports,
Nikola Selaković – Minister of Culture,
Milan Krkobabić – Minister for the Care of the Village,
Jelena Begović – Minister of Science, Technological Development and Innovation,
Husein Memic – Minister of Tourism and Youth,
Dejan Ristić – Minister of Information and Telecommunications,
Darko Glišić – Minister for Public Investments,
Novica Tončev – Minister for underdeveloped regions,
Đorđe Milićević, Usame Zukorlić, Nenad Popović and Tatjana Matsura – without portfolio.
Comment: The new government – what to expect:
The internal and external situation is very difficult for the Serbian president, Aleksandar Vučić. As a totalitarian leader, any big “blow” to his reputation as a “genius international player” after the most probable loss in the voting for the Kosovo membership in the Council of Europe next week, will show to the Serbian people that you might be a good chess player, but in the big politics it is not easy to sit on two chairs for too long. The upcoming local elections, especially these in Belgrade are of utmost importance for the future of SNS and its leading role in the Serbian society. SNS is slowly losing its grip on the Serbian citizens and it might be expected that the opposition will have a bigger chance at the Belgrade elections if the resolution for Srebrenica is passed in UN and Kosovo is accepted as a member in the Council of Europe.
At the same time one can expect that at least part of 17.8 billion euros for the EXPO 2027 will be stolen, having in mind who is the new Minister of construction, transport and infrastructure and Sinisa Mali is still in the Ministry of finance, in preparation for the moment when SNS will no longer be in power.
We won’t see some spectacular turn towards Russia and China, as well as a real change in the rhetoric of the Serbian government about its EU membership goal. On the contrary, A. Vučić will keep waiting for the results in the elections for the European parliament and presidential elections in the US, but he will give less attention to any criticism coming from Brussels or Washington, especially concerning the process of the normalization of the relations between Serbia and Kosovo. There will be no significant movements from both Pristina and Serbia in this period, never the less we can expect some pressure on the both sides after the change of the Special representative Miroslav Lajchak, who will be soon send as representative of EU to Switzerland.
Russia and China have nothing more to offer to Serbia, but just keeping their stand on Kosovo is enough for the Serbian leadership to keep its close ties with them.
