Serbia: Antagonism at home, flirtation abroad

A strong message to Serbia

At the meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (March 19), President Vučić discussed Serbia’s cooperation with NATO (including KFOR), the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. The coincidence of the meeting with the announcement of a trilateral Balkan military pact Croatia-Albania-Kosovo is a strong signal to Serbia that its military ties with non-Western actors such as Russia and China are undermining regional stability and the security of Corridor No. 7, which is gaining in importance for the Western defense alliance (transporting troops and weapons to the Black Sea region in the event of a conflict with Russia).

Intensifying dialogue with Brussels

Vučić met with EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos (March 18) and with European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (March 25). At the same time, the EU Special Envoy for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue, Peter Sørensen, made his first visit to Belgrade. European leaders have insisted that Serbia should remain on the path to EU accession and that adherence to reforms is the best way out of the current crisis. It was emphasized that the participation of civil society in the reforms is of particular importance. Brussels expects Serbia to take action to remove doubts about its geostrategic orientation. Serbia stands with the US position on the war in Ukraine. Although Vučić is aware that the EU is indispensable for Serbia’s economic prosperity, he sees the new US presidential administration as an opportunity to protect his interests. According to the EC, Serbia maintains low harmonization with the EU CFSP (about 55%), which is why Vučić was called upon to adhere to the EU’s positions in the field of foreign policy.

In response, Vučić reaffirmed Belgrade’s commitments to the EU, but also expressed disappointment that it was not receiving the Union’s support, as well as hope that new clusters would be opened in the negotiation process this year.

Ursula von der Leyen praised the work of the Serbian authorities in fulfilling the requirements and obligations for EU accession and announced the opening of Cluster 3.

The 35 negotiation chapters, which cover areas in which Serbia must meet the criteria set for EU membership, are grouped into six clusters – rule of law, market, economy, green agenda, agriculture and external relations.

For a cluster to be opened, the EU must recognize progress in harmonizing Serbian laws with European laws in a specific area. So far, in 12 years, only two clusters have been opened. There are also two separate chapters: Chapter 34 – Institutions and 35 – Other issues, which includes the dialogue process with Pristina.

What chapters make up Cluster 3?

Eight are the pre-defined negotiation chapters: Chapter 10 – Digital transformation and media; Chapter 16 – Taxation; Chapter 17 – Economic and monetary policy; Chapter 19 – Social policy and employment; Chapter 20 – Entrepreneurship and industrial policy; Chapter 25 – Science and research; Chapter 26 – Education and culture; Chapter 29 – Customs union.

Slowing down the pace of integration

The months-long crisis in Serbia is affecting the speed with which Belgrade is progressing in implementing the reforms that the EU expects from the country. On the other hand, the protests cannot be transformed into a homogeneous political representation. Therefore, it is doubtful whether Serbia will be able to meet the interim indicators under chapters 23 (Judiciary & fundamental rights) and 24 (Justice, Freedom & Security) by the end of the year. The preparation of the new media legislation has not yet been completed; the procedure for electing a new Council for Electronic Media has been suspended; there is still no concrete result from the work on amendments to the electoral legislation, in implementation of the recommendations of the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights. In order to achieve progress, a way must be found to include the opposition and NGOs in the work on these reforms.

A positive step is the start of harmonization of Belgrade’s visa policy with the EU. Serbia has introduced visas for citizens of Mongolia, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman. The Serbian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the country aims to fully harmonize its visa regulations with the EU and complete the necessary reforms by the end of 2026. Other countries for which Serbia needs to introduce visa requirements in order to comply with EU foreign policy are Russia, Belarus, China, Turkey, Azerbaijan. However, this will obviously take longer, if it happens at all.

Paradigm shift?

It is significant that the EU no longer sees Serbia as a factor of stability in the Balkans. More and more member states see the risks of possible destabilization of the region related to the development of the situation in Serbia. Therefore, the EU’s attitude towards Serbia can no longer be business as usual. Without closing the door on Serbia, the EU will probably strive to keep Serbia in the EU orbit and will continue its engagement with it, but it needs a new strategy and a common position that outlines the EU’s red lines.

The EU hopes that Vucic is only flirting with Russia. But they should not forget the old Serbian proverb: “In heaven – God, on earth – Russia.”