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1.Political situation in Romania on the eve of the presidential elections
Unexpectedly for many observers, Romania quickly degraded from the category of countries committed to Euro-Atlanticism to the category of hybrid regimes. Romania was historically organically anti-Russian, but in a state of semi-functioning democracy, its immunity against Russian propaganda turned out to be illusory. In order to prevent the victory of the pro-Russian presidential candidate Călin Georgescu, force mechanisms were activated, which led to the annulment of the results of the first round of the elections on November 24, 2024, and two new rounds of elections were scheduled for May 4 and May 18, 2025.
The head of state plays a crucial part in shaping the country’s direction – even within a system where executive power is shared with the government. Although in Romania’s political system the president has limited, mostly representative functions, in the current dynamic geopolitical situation he has real potential to change Romania’s pro-European course.
The main reason why the far-right and pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu came close to the presidency is the huge dissatisfaction of Romanians, who want to see radically new faces at the head of the state, albeit ones who exude radicalism close to madness. The people’s distrust of the government is very high. Romanians are disappointed with democracy and European integration. They want security from NATO and EU money, but with regard to painful reforms, previous governments have cultivated the idea that they are following orders from Brussels. The population is feeling that Romania is no longer a sovereign state.
At the same time, due to Romania’s strong pro-Ukrainian position, the Brussels administration has been very uninterested in the internal situation in the country. The Romanian political elite, for its part, is trying to trade its position as a good security partner, in exchange for Brussels and Washington turning a blind eye to Bucharest’s retreats from democracy and the fight against corruption. It is overlooked that Russia is no longer an external but an internal factor for Romania, as well as for a number of other countries in Eastern Europe. Russian narratives – Romanians are second-class Europeans, the country serves only as a market for the EU, NATO will not protect Romania – are accepted by a large part of the population. The disappointment with the too long delay in Romania’s accession to Schengen is great, many people ask themselves – why don’t we act like Orbán?
The role of the Romanian diaspora, which is anti-establishment, in the electoral process should also be taken into account.
All this led to the emergence of a figure like Călin Georgescu, who is the embodiment of the frustration and fears of the people, regardless of the absurdity of his slogans. In this case, we can talk about underestimating the readiness of the people to “burn down their house” to signal their anger at the political class, to use the expression of the Bulgarian analyst Ivan Krastev.
The external factor does not help Romania. The cancellation of the elections is unacceptable for Washington, which is exerting strong pressure on Bucharest for ideological reasons. This leads to a division in the political class into pro-European and pro-American wings. If the presidential elections are won by a candidate who is not completely pro-European, the country’s course may change.
- Main presidential candidates and their chances
The presidential candidates, 11 in total, are weak, their election campaigns are poor, they try to imitate Georgescu’s successful campaign using social media and TikTok, but they cannot effectively apply the same trick twice.
In March 2025 the strongest candidate, Călin Georgescu, was disqualified from participating in the elections. The decision was confirmed by the Constitutional Court and is final. The reasons for the disqualification include: violations of electoral rules, including illegal campaign financing and the use of social media to manipulate public opinion; accusations of collaboration with pro-Russian forces and participation in anti-democratic actions. Despite attempts to appeal, the court confirmed the ban on participation in the elections. After his disqualification, his ally, George Simion, announced his candidacy to represent the “sovereignist” movement that Georgescu personified.
Public opinion polls in March and April 2025 show a clear advantage for George Simion, who leads by 27% to 40% against 22% to 26% for Crin Antonescu in various surveys. In a hypothetical second round, Simion and Antonescu’s chances are approximately equal.
However, it should be borne in mind that public opinion in Romania is currently very volatile and could change overnight.
George Simion, founder and chairman of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), far-right
Platform: Nationalism, Euroscepticism, limited support for Ukraine. George Simion is considered a moderate nationalist and associates himself with a clear nationalist identity. He himself states that he is not anti-NATO, anti-EU, but anti-Russia. He wants to be like Meloni, not like Orbán. His political career is connected with the idea of unifying Romania with Moldova. He has been declared persona non grata in Moldova and Ukraine.
Chances: Simion has an average of 31% support according to various polls, which gives him a real chance of reaching a runoff and even winning the election, depending on his opponent. He has strong support among those dissatisfied with the status quo, but his far-right positions may limit his appeal among moderate voters. Not everyone who voted for Georgescu will vote for Simion. Georgescu was able to attract the protest vote in Romania, while Simion is more of a part of the system and not anti-establishment enough for disaffected Romanians. If Simion is elected, it will be easier for mainstream parties to work with him, and his AUR party could be a coalition partner.
Crin Antonescu’s chances
Crin Antonescu is the candidate of the ruling Romania Forward coalition (composed of PSD, PNL and UDMR). Although he temporarily froze his candidacy in January due to internal disagreements within the coalition, it was later confirmed by all participating parties. According to the latest polls, Antonescu has around 20% support.
Political Positions
Antonescu is a pro-European and pro-Atlantic candidate, supporting Romania’s membership in the EU and NATO. He seeks to present a stable alternative to populist and ultra-nationalist candidates, emphasizing the need for institutional stability and international credibility.
Support: Antonescu, as a coalition candidate, has the support of both major parties, but it is debatable to what extent the leaders control the party masses. Many local party organizations, secretly or openly, voted for Georgescu in November, and are now expected to support Simion.
Challenges
Despite the support of the ruling coalition, Antonescu faces challenges, including:
Distrust of the political class: Many voters are disillusioned with the traditional parties, which could reduce support for the ruling coalition’s candidate. It is an open question how strong the coalition candidate will perform in the elections, as he himself is not a very strong candidate. Antonescu does not represent what the people want – a new figure. He is an old figure identified with the establishment.
Strong competition: Candidates such as George Simion and Nicușor Dan have significant support, especially among young and urban voters.
Internal disagreements: The temporary pause in his candidacy in January indicates possible internal tensions within the coalition.
Crin Antonescu has a real chance of reaching a runoff and even winning the presidential election, especially if he faces more extreme candidates. However, his success will depend on his ability to mobilize support beyond the traditional party base and meet the expectations of a wider range of voters.
Victor Ponta – profile and chances
Victor Ponta is a former prime minister and presents himself as a nationalist-oriented candidate with an emphasis on defending Romanian economic interests. A former leader of the Social Democratic Party, he is now a hardcore nationalist.
Key positions:
Promises to end the transit of Ukrainian grain through Romanian Black Sea ports to protect local farmers.
Supports increasing military spending to over 3% of GDP by 2026 and strengthening cooperation with the US within NATO.
Opposes civil unions for same-sex couples.
Chances: Ponta has a solid political base and experience, but competition from other candidates, such as George Simion and Nicușor Dan, could limit his chances of reaching a runoff. A major negative for Ponta is that he embodies everything Romanians have protested against in the past decades. His government fell due to corruption. He supports autocratic states, he is close to Erdoğan and is a friend of Aleksandar Vučić, who granted him Serbian citizenship in 2017. Ponta is pro-Trump, turns against the EU. He is supported by part of the Romanian establishment, which sees a window of opportunity to steer Romania along the path of Hungary.
Nicușor Dan, independent candidate, mayor of Bucharest
Support: On average around 20% according to various polls.
Platform: Anti-corruption, pro-European orientation, support for Ukraine. His identity is not very clear. He is running as an independent candidate, but is supported by part of the Liberal Party, by part of the Save Romania Union.
Chances: Popular among urban and young voters, but may face challenges in more conservative regions.
Conclusion
The upcoming elections in Romania are highly competitive, with several candidates with real chances of winning. George Simion seems like the favorite, but if it comes to a runoff against Crin Antonescu, a repeat of the Georgesescu scenario can be expected. However, the high support for George Simion indicates growing dissatisfaction among some voters. Nicușor Dan also has the potential to surprise, especially among young and urban voters.
