Thewesternbalkans
After the elections in North Macedonia, the leader of VMRO Hristijan Mickovski formed a government with a program based on anti-Bulgarian and to a very large extent anti-European basis. The new Macedonian government refused to fulfill the commitments and proposed a revision of the European Council’s decision on the framework for EU accession negotiations. As a result, on September 15, the most logical thing happened – with a decision of the EU Council (COREPER level), Albania was separated from North Macedonia and a date was set (October 15) for the second intergovernmental conference on the country’s EU membership negotiations. RNM currently remains in the waiting room. Not sure until when.
Against the background of what is happening, an analysis of the situation has already become necessary in order to assess the prospects for its development. At the very beginning, it is necessary to ask ourselves some questions that will lead us into the real situation in the Balkans and the EU enlargement process.
The first and most important question is whether North Macedonia is an unavoidable factor and whether its rhetoric is able to change anything real in its neighboring countries and the European Union, leading to a delay or halt in their development.
The second question is whether the situation and the current policy of the Republic of North Macedonia pose a real threat to Bulgaria and the other EU countries.
Apparently the answer to both questions is NO.
In this situation, it is still good to look at the positions of the main countries on the issue:
Republic of North Macedonia.
The statement made by Prime Minister Mickoski regarding the hundred days of the cabinet’s existence can be taken as a basis. According to him:
– The number 1 strategic priority of this government is to serve the Macedonian people and justify their vote of confidence during the elections;
– Strategic priority number 2 is integration in the European Union. Here Mickoski emphasizes that he is ready to negotiate, insisting on a review of the decision of the European Council and is ready to accept a change of the constitution and the inclusion of Bulgarians as ethnically represented in the state of North Macedonia. Mickoski proposes that this should happen after Bulgaria ratifies the treaty for the accession of the RNM to the EU, similar to the case with the name of the country and Greece’s reservations about the admission of North Macedonia to NATO.
– The government will not tolerate double standards and dictation, as is currently practiced by the EU and Bulgaria.
– Macedonian pride and patriotism are a value category that should be protected.
Betting on nationalism, Mickoski is apparently preparing to seek support from the new right (extreme right) in the EU, counting on politicians from this sector in the EU to recognize an ally in Mickoski’s party.
In Mickoski’s speech on the occasion of the 100 days of the cabinet, there is also a certain note of justification for the deplorable results of relations with the EU so far: “What do you want from us – they are inside and we are outside. They decide”, Mickoski said.
Analyzing Hristijan Mickoski’s statements, we may be left with the impression that the world revolves around North Macedonia, which, however, does not seem to be the case.
Position of Bulgaria.
The Bulgarian Parliament came out with a Political Declaration, supported by consensus, against the latest provocations by individual members of the Mickoski government.
Bulgarian politicians also accepted with undisguised satisfaction COREPER’s decision to separate Albania from its tandem with North Macedonia. Bulgaria considers that the problem with the rights of the Bulgarians in the RNM is fundamental, and in this respect its position fully coincides with that of the EU.
On the other hand, Sofia admitted over the years a number of unrealistic positions such as non-recognition of the Macedonian nation, the Macedonian language, etc., which led to additional tension. Many Bulgarian politicians insist on a common history with the RNM, as well as the celebration of common heroes, which turns out to be rather slippery territory and can not be assessed as a winning strategy, given the frantic desire of Skopje to be independent and for this purpose even allows itself to steals historic facts and events. It is also not clear what prevented Sofia and Athens from coordinating the negotiations with the RNM and, why not, from uniting in common positions. In such a situation, the name Republic of North Macedonia, which frankly does not suit Bulgaria, would not be allowed. Also, following the example of Greece, any opportunity for Skopje to take advantage and speculate on the common history up to the period of the end of the First World War and the changes imposed on Bulgaria by the Berlin Treaty could be cut off.
Most likely in Sofia they felt (and with full reason) much stronger than small RNM, they did not consider it a factor in the Balkans (not to mention Europe) and did not pay the necessary attention.
Position of Greece.
Greece is a member of the EU and COREPER’s decision was taken with the participation of Athens, fully aware that North Macedonia and Albania are separating.
At the same time, Greece remains calm and does not demonstrate its satisfaction with this fact. Athens relies on the “Treaty of Prespa”, in which all strategic problems from Greece’s point of view are resolved.
Position of the European Union.
The position of the European Union is clear and categorical.
In the EU Commission’s report for enlargement to the RNM (November 2023) there is a text: ”Existing bilateral agreements need to be implemented in good faith by all parties, including the Prespa Agreement between North Macedonia and Greece and the Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation with Bulgaria.”
On 23 of December 2023 the European Council decided: “The European Council reaffirms its full and unequivocal commitment to the EU membership perspective of the Western Balkans, and remains committed to advancing the gradual integration between the European Union and the region during the enlargement process itself in a reversible and merit-based manner.” And also: “The European Union is ready to complete the opening phase of the accession negotiations with North Macedonia as soon as it has implemented its commitment to complete the constitutional changes as referred to in the Council conclusions of 18 July 2022, in line with its internal procedures. The European Council calls on North Macedonia to accelerate the completion of these changes.”
On the basis of all these documents, on 15 of September 2024 the Council of the EU (COREPER level) have taken a decision to hold an intergovernmental conference with Albania on October 15 and open negotiation chapters from the first cluster, according to the decision and the conditions set by the European Council.
Currently, there is no such a decision for the RNM due to the same conditions of the European Council.
Scenarios for the development of the situation.
Considering on the one hand the strategic nature of the EU enlargement process, it is likely that ways will be sought to achieve some progress in Skopje. This progress will in any case be related to the inclusion of the Bulgarians in the Constitution of North Macedonia.
However, if this government in Skopje continues to act as a proxy for Moscow and Belgrade, the likelihood of finding a quick solution remains minimal.
In parallel with this, the already well-known approach of the EC can be applied to support the political power that is ready to make concessions in order for the integration proces. In this context, Macedonian citizens may very quickly realize that the Mickoski government is leading them to isolation and backwardness, and then pragmatism could prevail over nationalism.
Comment: The situation is quite complicated for the Republic of North Macedonia and is further complicated by the arrogant behavior of the Prime Minister Mickoski and some of his colleges. Instead of thinking about possible win-win options and especially how to fulfill the requirements of the European Council for his country to start accession negotiations, he attacked Bulgaria. Especially regarding the position of the Bulgarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, that the issue of the European integration process is based on its own merits and does not allow mediation between the EU and a candidate country, quoted by Macedonian media.
Regarding the Bulgarian position on the problem with the rights of the Bulgarians in the RNM, the Macedonian prime minister Mickoski does not understand, or does not want to understand, that it is a fundamental question and cannot be a subject of negotiations.
In his analysis on the subject, the respected Bulgarian political scientist Ognyan Minchev develops the thesis of Russian influence in the Balkans along the Belgrade-Budapest-Skopje axis, stressing that delaying the membership of the RNM in the EU is a strategic goal of Moscow.
If for the EU at the moment this dependence is not a big problem, it is for NATO. We do not know who reads in Skopje the secret documents of the Alliance and where the information goes the day after.
Foto: Pexels
