Thewesternbalkans.
Balkan Union 1
Kosovo, Albania and Croatia signed a trilateral declaration on a military alliance on March 18 in Tirana, Balkan media reported.
The declaration was signed by the defense ministers of Albania, Piro Vengu, Croatia, Ivan Anušić and Kosovo, Ejup Macedonci.
The Croatian newspaper Večerni List notes that Bulgaria may join the trilateral document as a fourth member.
The signed memorandum aims to promote cooperation in building defense capacity and the defense industry, increasing interoperability through training and exercises, countering hybrid threats and strengthening strategic resilience, the media noted.
Balkan Union 2
Meanwhile, on March 20, the Serbian newspaper Kurir reported that a military alliance between Serbia and Hungary is being prepared, with negotiations between Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić on its establishment already at a serious stage. This would be Serbia’s response to the agreement signed in Tirana by Croatia, Albania and Kosovo. Vučić has already discussed the agreement during his meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Balkan Union 3
The Turkish parliament is considering the ratification of framework military agreements with Kosovo, Albania and North Macedonia under an accelerated procedure. According to the agreements, Turkey will assist the Balkan partners with military training, joint military exercises, cooperation in the defense industry, information exchange, logistics, cyber defense and peacekeeping. The agreements also include personnel exchanges and joint military research. Greece has already expressed concern about Turkey’s actions in the defense sector in the region.
The militarization of the Balkans and the arms race in the region are not new. However, the inclusion of Kosovo in interstate agreements for “defense capacity building” is problematic from a legal perspective.
Does Kosovo have the right to an army?
Currently, Kosovo has a Kosovo Security Force (KSF). It was established in 2009 with limited capabilities, mainly for civil protection, demining and crisis management. In 2018, the Kosovo parliament passed legislation to transform the KSF into a full-fledged army – the Kosovo Armed Forces. Building Kosovo’s own army remains a contentious issue internationally. It is a process that is expected to take about 10 years.
Serbia opposes the creation of an army in Kosovo, arguing that it violates UN Resolution 1244 from 1999, which provides for the demilitarization of all armed Albanian groups in Kosovo. According to the document, KFOR (the peacekeeping mission in Kosovo) is the only legal military force.
Kosovo declared independence in 2008, which is not recognized by a number of countries, including Serbia, Russia and China. However, as an independent state (according to the countries that recognized it), Kosovo has the sovereign right to establish an army, but this issue is a subject of political and international debate. The United States and some Western countries support the process. NATO has expressed concern but has not directly opposed it.
Albania – a mentor to Kosovo
Military cooperation between Albania and Kosovo has been developing actively in recent years, with the two countries deepening their coordination in the defense sector.
The two countries have significantly expanded their military cooperation, mainly in training, logistics and exercises. Tirana plays an important role in helping Kosovo on its path to building a full-fledged army and a closer partnership with NATO. The Albanian Armed Forces regularly conduct training for the Kosovo Security Force. Kosovo soldiers participate in exercises in Albania and vice versa. Albanian military instructors help the KSF meet NATO standards. Kosovo officers undergo trainings in Albania.
The Albanian army conducts regular annual joint exercises, in summer and winter, with the Kosovo Security Force. According to Kosovo Defense Minister Ejup Makedonci, they are intended to test the “combat capability of the infantry.” Albania provides Kosovo with access to its military facilities for training and logistical support. In 2022, Albania announced that the Kosovo army would be able to use the Kuçova air base, which it is modernizing with NATO assistance.
The two countries have signed a Defense Cooperation Agreement, which provides for coordinated actions in response to potential threats. Integration of defense industries is gradually increasing.
Albania has been a member of NATO since 2009, while Kosovo is not yet an official candidate, but relies on Tirana’s support for closer cooperation with the Alliance.
A common military command?
In some circles in Kosovo and Albania, the idea of even closer integration of military structures is being discussed, but for now this remains a political perspective, not a reality.
Croatia: The enemy of my enemy is my friend
Croatia is one of the most active countries in helping Kosovo build its military capacity. The main areas of military cooperation include:
Training and joint military exercises
The Croatian army trains the Kosovo Security Force, especially in areas such as military tactics, intelligence and special operations. Kosovo officers are trained in Croatian military academies. Special Croatian instructors are assisting in the transformation of the KSF into a regular army. Kosovo soldiers participate in exercises organized by Croatia within the framework of NATO. In recent years, the KSF and Croatian forces have conducted exercises within the framework of KFOR .
Military equipment supplies: new opportunities for the Croatian military-industrial complex
Croatia is one of the main suppliers of weapons to Kosovo. Supplies include everything from military helmets and body armor to “lethal weapons”: assault rifles, pistols, hand grenades and grenade launchers. The most active is the Croatian company HS Produkt, which provides NATO-caliber 5.56 mm assault rifles. Pristina is also negotiating with Zagreb for the purchase of modernized Yugoslav M-80 infantry fighting vehicles. The two countries are discussing greater military cooperation in the field of the defense industry.
Political support for Kosovo’s integration into NATO
Croatia actively supports Kosovo’s membership in NATO and other international organizations. Zagreb is lobbying the EU and NATO to expand military cooperation with Pristina.
Significance of the agreement between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo
The trilateral military agreement is important for strengthening Kosovo’s security and for NATO’s expansion in the Balkans. Albania and Croatia are NATO members and have played a key role in helping transform the Kosovo Security Force into a fully-fledged army. Kosovo is receiving access to training, military equipment and strategic support. The agreement is a step towards closer integration of Kosovo with NATO, although Kosovo is not yet recognized by all members of the Alliance. Albania and Croatia act as a bridge between NATO and Kosovo.
Who benefits from the agreement?
It is beneficial for Kosovo, Albania and Croatia, but it is causing a sharp reaction from Serbia. It is not beneficial for Russia and China, but there is no reaction from either of them yet.
Albania and Kosovo
Kosovo is accelerating the development of its army, receiving greater international support for the armed forces, receiving military expertise, access to modern military equipment and training from NATO member states, and expanding its partnerships in the defense sector. Albania is strengthening its role as a regional military partner.
Croatia
Croatia is strengthening its geopolitical influence in the Western Balkans. It is strengthening its cooperation with NATO and strengthening its position as a leader in defense cooperation in the region. It is countering Serbian influence and supporting the integration of Kosovo into Western structures.
US and NATO
The Alliance is strengthening its position in the region and reducing its dependence on the peacekeeping force (KFOR). It is countering the expansion of Russian and Chinese influence.
Against whom is it directed?
Serbia
Serbia sees the trilateral military cooperation of its neighbors as a threat to its security and an opportunity for military pressure on northern Kosovo, where a Serbian minority lives. Belgrade believes that the agreement violates UN Resolution 1244.
Russia
Moscow has traditionally supported Serbia and opposed NATO expansion in the Balkans. It sees this action as a threat to its influence in the region. However, drawing new dividing lines in the Balkans is primarily beneficial for Russia. The division of the Balkans along the East-West axis and the change of the status quo leads to immediate destabilization of the region.
China
China has economic interests in Serbia and opposes the strengthening of NATO in the region.
Implications for the strategic balance in the region
The agreement on military cooperation between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo reduces the influence of Serbia, which has close ties with Russia and China. It is part of NATO’s strategic plan to stabilize the Balkans and strengthen Kosovo as a military-political entity and the positions of pro-Western countries in the Balkans. For its part, Belgrade sees its military neutrality threatened and may turn to China for help.
However, the creation of a Kosovo army as a step towards the functional independence of the Kosovo state may affect the intentions of the Republika Srpska for independence. With the preparation of laws for the border police announced these days and the withdrawal of Serbian officials from the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Republika Srpska is rapidly separating from Bosnia and Herzegovina. “The collapse of Yugoslavia 2.0” has already begun.
