Thewesternbalkans
Montenegro is the leader of the group of countries of the Western Balkans seeking European Union (EU) membership. The Adriatic country with population a little over 600 000 is the most advanced in the negotiations and most serious candidate for EU membership by 2030. In geopolitical terms, Montenegro is the least troubled country. Moreover, as a population and territory, it does not represent a problem for integration.
Montenegro has made significant progress toward EU accession, but several challenges remain before it can become a full member. Here are some key points regarding Montenegro’s readiness for EU membership:
Progress and Achievements
- Negotiation Chapters
Montenegro has opened all 33 negotiation chapters, which is a significant step in the accession process. It has provisionally closed three chapters, demonstrating progress in aligning with EU standards and a desire to focus on closing negotiation chapters in the future. The negotiations are progressing in a technical sense and Montenegro can now close the negotiation chapters which are ready to be closed.
At the moment, it is not clear whether the country has a plan which negotiation chapters it will be able to close in a short period of time. Different number of chapters are publicly mentioned, up to 10, but it is realistic to have 3 or 4 chapters closed by the end of the year.
For the first time in the integration history, the EU adopted the Interim Benchmark Assessment Report (IBAR) for the rule of law by June. The closing benchmarks for chapters 23 and 24 enable Podgorica to move into the phase of provisional closing of other chapters. Obtaining the IBAR is a turning point in the EU accession process and is a reason for optimism.
- Reforms
Montenegro has implemented various reforms, particularly in the areas of rule of law, economic governance, and public administration. It is important to continue reforms in important areas in order not to lose momentum in the negotiations. The country has also shown commitment to aligning its foreign policy with the EU, particularly concerning the sanctions against Russia.
Montenegro maintains full harmonization with the common foreign and security policy of the EU, and the country is also working on a new law on the application of sanctions in order to improve harmonization with EU legislation.
- Public Support
There is strong public support for EU membership in Montenegro, which helps sustain the momentum for necessary reforms and alignment with EU policies.
Challenges and destabilizing risks
- Rule of Law and Judiciary
The EU has highlighted issues with the rule of law, including the independence of the judiciary, corruption, and organized crime. Continued efforts are required to strengthen judicial independence and combat corruption effectively.
- Political Stability
Among the risks for Montenegro is the possibility of a return to political instability, a prerequisite for which is the composition of the parliamentary majority, which includes pro-Russian parties, and the political situation in the country. Political instability and frequent changes in government have hindered consistent progress on reforms. Ensuring stable governance and political consensus on EU-related reforms is crucial for maintaining the accession trajectory.
The European road followed from Podgorica is not entirely straight. Every time it reports progress, Montenegro seems to take a step back. An example of this is the problematic resolution of the Montenegrin parliament on the Jasenovac, Dachau and Mauthausen camps, adopted on June 28, despite calls from Brussels not to undermine progress towards the EU.
Therefore, Montenegro needs the support of the EU to strengthen the reform process in order to close the negotiation chapters, for the country’s sustainability and administrative capacity, so as not to lose the momentum in the negotiations. This is important both for Montenegro and for the integration process in the entire region.
In July, an agreement was signed in Podgorica to reconstruct the Montenegrin government and pro-Serbian parties will enter the government. President Milatovic and Prime Minister Spajic got their posts thanks to Serbian votes and now, despite pressure from the US and the EU, they are forced to make concessions to the Serbian coalition “For the Future of Montenegro”.
Montenegro receives support from the EU in the fight against foreign interference and manipulative information. The Union also offers Podgorica projects to improve cyber resilience. The country’s continuing internal divisions exacerbate Montenegro’s vulnerability to malign foreign influence, which could negatively impact its accession process.
- Ethnic-based risks
Montenegro is a multi-ethnic country and this determines the presence of inter-ethnic tension. A reflection of this is the recently adopted resolution of the country’s parliament on the Jasenovac, Dachau and Mauthausen camps. It is obvious that it is a response to the resolution of the UN General Assembly on Srebrenica, and in all probability foreign factors also played a role in its adoption.
Another destabilizing risk is the Montenegrin census results, which are due to be published soon. Allowing the possible politicization of these results could become an occasion for a new division in society.
- Good neighborly relations and regional cooperation
Good neighborliness is an essential part of the negotiation process with all EU candidate countries. Accession negotiations have a political component and conflicts with member states are a major issue, which is best demonstrated by the “case of North Macedonia”. The recent tensions between Montenegro and Croatia in connection with the Yasenovac resolution could slow down the negotiation process.
- Media Freedom
Concerns have been raised about media freedom and the protection of journalists in Montenegro. Addressing these concerns is essential for meeting EU standards on fundamental rights and freedoms.
- Economic Criteria
While Montenegro has made economic progress, issues such as high public debt and the need for structural economic reforms persist. Continued economic reforms are necessary to meet the EU’s economic criteria for membership.
Conclusion
Montenegro is on the path toward EU accession and has achieved notable milestones. However, sustained efforts are required to address the remaining challenges, particularly in the areas of rule of law, political stability, media freedom, and economic reforms. The country’s commitment to these reforms and the support of its citizens will be crucial in achieving full EU membership.
