Thewesternbalkans
Local elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina held on 6 October 2024 were dominated by national parties, especially in Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Union of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), led by Milorad Dodik, achieved considerable success, winning in 47 municipalities, including some key places such as Laktasi and East Novo Sarajevo. SNSD strengthened its positions, the opposition being seriously weakened in this region.
The elections for mayors and municipal councilors were well organized by the administrative bodies, while respecting basic freedoms. The voting process was relatively calm and organized without serious incidents. The international observers found irregularities, mainly related to violation of the secrecy of the vote, including those of a procedural nature – taking pictures of ballots, poorly sealed ballot boxes, voting through an intermediary, group voting and others.
The High Representative of the international community in BiH, Christian Schmidt, imposed at the end of March changes in the electoral law of BiH. The lack of sufficient time and resources to implement these changes was the cause of some weaknesses in the process of preparing the elections and in the course of the election campaign itself. Voters had difficulty making a sufficiently informed choice due to political parties’ exploitation of the ethnic map, and there were cases of political pressure against journalists. The media has traditionally been divided along ethnic lines, and in some cases sexist rhetoric and hate speech have been used.
Preliminary results published by the Central Election Commission (CEC) show that no major changes have occurred in the political landscape. The Union of Independent Social Democrats and the Party of Democratic Action retain their positions as the main political forces in Republika Srpska and FBiH, respectively. Both parties managed to increase the number of mayoral seats won compared to the results of the previous local elections in 2020. However, they failed to capture the mayoral posts in the larger cities that are the centers of cantons. The Croatian Democratic Union generally maintained its dominant positions in the majority-Croat population, although it lost mayoral seats in three municipalities in central Bosnia. The “Troika” coalition, led by the Social Democratic Party, retains its 4 mayoral seats in Sarajevo Canton.
In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, voter turnout was relatively low and nationalist parties remained dominant, with many municipalities in the hands of coalitions. Due to the catastrophic floods and landslides that hit the country on October 4, 2024, the CEC postponed the holding of the elections in the 5 most severely affected municipalities – Foynitsa, Yablanitsa, Konich, Kiseljak and Kreshevo, and the law provides for a period of one month for taking decision on the date of holding the elections in the affected municipalities.
Comment:
The results of the elections for mayors and municipal councilors show that, regardless of some expectations for serious changes in the mood of voters in BiH, it is clear that the ethnic nature of the vote is preserved, with ordinary people continuing to vote “out of habit” or for the “lesser evil” depending on their political leanings, not on political platforms, even at the local level. The secessionist rhetoric of the Republika Srpska leadership continues to bring political dividends to Milorad Dodik, indicating that he is unlikely to change the political course of the SNSD. Emboldened by the results of the local elections, Dodik has already announced his candidacy for the 2026 presidential elections in Republika Srpska.
