Thewesternbalkans.
I. Executive Summary
Kosovo is currently experiencing a constitutional and political crisis stemming from the failure of the ruling Vetëvendosje (LVV) party, led by Prime Minister Albin Kurti, to initiate the formal transition of government following the most recent elections. The refusal of the outgoing government to resign, combined with LVV’s inability to secure a parliamentary majority, has paralyzed institutional functionality and delayed the formation of essential governance structures. The situation presents urgent challenges to Kosovo’s democratic integrity and regional stability.
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II. Background and Key Developments
Failure of Initial Parliamentary Session
The inaugural post-election parliamentary session was suspended after Prime Minister Kurti’s government refused to formally resign. This prevented newly elected MPs from taking their oaths and the Assembly from initiating its legislative mandate.
Subsequent Session and Continued Instability
Parliament reconvened, and government resignations were eventually accepted. However, LVV failed to elect its candidate, Albulena Haxhiu, as Speaker, highlighting a lack of parliamentary majority.
Fragmented Political Landscape
LVV is opposed by the two largest opposition parties, LDK and PDK.
Duda Balje, a Bosniak minority representative, joined the opposition.
LVV’s potential coalition partner, NISMA (3 seats), is demanding electoral reforms, specifically the lowering of the parliamentary threshold, in exchange for support.
Institutional and Legal Issues
The refusal of some executive members to resign after being elected MPs violates constitutional provisions on the separation of powers.
Attempts to involve the President in directing parliamentary proceedings have been deemed outside legal norms, as session management is under the exclusive authority of the Speaker.
III. Current Risks
Institutional Paralysis: Failure to verify mandates and elect parliamentary leadership has delayed legislative and governmental functions.
Coalition Instability: Even if a government is formed with NISMA’s support, it will likely be fragile and short-lived due to its narrow base and internal contradictions.
Public Trust Erosion: Continued political maneuvering and disregard for legal procedures risk diminishing citizens’ confidence in democratic institutions.
Regional and EU Engagement Impact: Delays in forming a functional government may stall key EU-related reforms and jeopardize access to IPA III funding and other forms of international assistance.IV.
IV. Strategic Implications and Scenarios
The first scenario is LVV to form a fragile coalition with NISMA. Such a government would be highly unstable and it may collapse before autumn. The likelihood of this scenario is medium.
Second scenario: new elections are triggered. The likelihood of this scenario is high, but there is a risk of deepening public fatigue and further polarizing the political environment.
The third scenario is a broad-based coalition or technocratic solution. This is unlikely due to entrenched rivalries and political divisions. The likelihood is low.
V. Conclusion
Kosovo’s current crisis underscores the fragility of its institutional framework and the need for sustained democratic development. A stable and legally grounded government is essential not only for Kosovo’s internal governance but also for continued progress on EU integration and regional cooperation. The international community should respond with a balanced approach—combining pressure, mediation, and conditional support—to help ensure a peaceful resolution in line with democratic principles.
