Thewesternbalkans.
“The EU’s waiting room policy for the Western Balkans must be ended. From the perspective of security, stability and economic development opportunities, it is in our own interest to bring the Balkans into the European Union as quickly as possible.” These were the words of Austrian Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger, spoken on May 12, 2010, at the opening of a high-level expert seminar in Vienna. It is striking that today, 15 years later, these words sound just as relevant – as if nothing had changed since then. In his speech at the time, Spindelegger added: “The EU must keep its word and fulfill the promise made ten years ago to admit the Western Balkans into the EU.”
Thus, in 25 years, the EU has fulfilled its promise only to Catholic Croatia, which joined the EU in 2013 – something that did not happen to its Orthodox and Muslim neighbors. But Croatia does not consider itself part of the Western Balkans (or B6 – Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Kosovo) anyway.
However, a window of opportunity is opening for the Western Balkan countries today: if the 2026 accession of Ukraine to the EU envisaged in Trump’s 28-point peace plan is implemented, Brussels will not be able to refuse membership to the B6 either. The Serbian president was quick to proclaim this possibility and proposed that the entire Western Balkans join the EU as a bloc of countries. He even went to Brussels on December 10 and developed his idea at a dinner with von der Leyen and Antonio Costa. However, by Vučić’s own admission, the hosts responded with polite silence.
Back when Spindelegger wanted to end the waiting room for the Western Balkans, Austrian intelligence had already provided the government in Vienna with its analysis that Turkey and Ukraine would never become EU members. The main argument was that Brussels would not be able to effectively manage an additional 120 million people (the combined population of both countries at the time). This analysis is still relevant for Turkey. But for Ukraine, the wind has turned.
It is known that the Kremlin will not oppose Ukraine’s EU membership as strongly as it would its NATO membership. If Ukraine were to be admitted to the EU (at the insistence of the US and as part of the grand peace deal), this cannot happen without a change in the rules for EU enlargement according to the merits of individual countries. Both the Western Balkan countries and Moldova would benefit from this change, even if only verbally. The EU would find itself in a huge crisis, not only in terms of enlargement, but also in terms of its institutions, values, finances and everything else, including the question of the meaning of the union’s existence.
The question is whether Trump will be able to convince Orban to withdraw his resistance to Ukraine’s EU membership and under what conditions. Will Orban “swallow” Ukraine’s accession if the integration process of friendly Serbia is sharply accelerated? But Bulgaria can also set its own conditions, as in the case of North Macedonia. Sofia holds a claim to the disenfranchised Bulgarian minority in Ukraine – according to official figures, over 200,000 (but unofficially over 1 million people have Bulgarian roots). A mass protest in Bulgarian cities on December 10 was enough to bring down the government in Sofia and withdraw support of the poorest country in the EU for European financing of Ukraine. The Bulgarian political elite, interested mainly in its own survival, is about to make a sharp turn and enter Orban’s orbit.
The EU has become tired – not only of enlargement, but also of general fatigue and retreat from European values. The large EU countries have no appetite for accepting problematic countries, such as Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia. The loss of momentum is having a catastrophic effect on both the Eastern Partnership countries and the Western Balkans.
At a high-level expert forum in Bucharest in October 2025, a senior Ukrainian diplomat criticized the EU (in a closed format) extremely sharply for its false credibility regarding European values. The criticism was based on the accusation that the EU is developing enlargement as a technical process, at the expense of values. The diplomat presented the Ukrainian point of view, according to which the Russian invasion in February 2022 has restarted the entire process of EU enlargement. “Ukraine should be the main priority in enlargement, as it is fundamental due to war and values. Ukraine is paying the highest price for ensuring the security of Europe,” the diplomat said. According to him, the country is implementing reforms, has completed the screening process and is awaiting the technical process. But “its isolation as a difficult case will also affect the other candidate countries.” Enlargement is a transformative process that must be carried out quickly, the diplomat believes. Apparently, this Ukrainian position was brought to the attention of Trump, who included it in his peace plan.
The Trump administration supports EU enlargement. Trump’s current direct intervention in Brussels’ enlargement policy is prompted by the assessment that the EU is too slow. But since values are abstract for Trump, he prefers to work with projects. The reconstruction of post-war Ukraine is a sufficiently large project and access to it could be facilitated by the country’s admission to the EU.
While for 25 years, officials in Brussels have been repeating the game of opening and closing accession chapters for various countries until they faint, American businessmen and politicians already have ready-made projects for the countries of the Western Balkans. The Trump business family is already implementing some of them. Trump’s policy towards the Western Balkans will not be limited to them.
Photo: Pixabay
