SERBIA – THE “Maydan” THAT DIDN’T HAPPEN

Thewesternbalkans

After the snap parliamentarian elections and partial local elections on 17^th of December 2023 and the protests of the Serbian opposition after the official results were announced numerous, predominantly foreign analysts, spoke about a “possible Maydan” scenario in Serbia. Three weeks later it is clear that it won’t happen!

As we wrote before the elections, the “the wind of change” is still not blowing in Serbia. The results of 17^th of December 2023 elections were very close to the polls conducted in the days before the elections, showing that the ruling coalition will still have a stable majority in the new Serbian parliament. The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) secured nearly twice as many votes as the main opposition coalition, and will have 128 seats out of the 250-seat Serbian parliament. It is anticipated that Aleksandar Vucic will once again incorporate the Socialist Party and two minority parties into the ruling coalition, providing him with a comfortable majority—though not a constitutional majority, a strategic consideration in light of renewed negotiations on the Kosovo issue.

While there were notable surprises, particularly the performance of the “We – Voice from the People” movement led by the charismatic yet eccentric physician, Branimir Nestorovic. Nestorovic, known for his controversial statements during the early days of the Covid-19 epidemic, secured 4.7% of the parliamentary votes and 5.4% in the Belgrade City Assembly elections, emerging as a noteworthy player in shaping the new majority in the latter.

The other surprising result was of the right-wing opposition coalition “National Gathering” made up of two extreme right clericalist parties, Dveri (“Church” Doors) and Zavetnici (Covenanters). With 2.76 per cent of the votes in the parliamentary elections and 2.61 per cent in the Belgrade Assembly elections, it fall short of the 3% threshold in both the parliamentary and Belgrade Assembly elections and failed to secure representation in them.

A significant drop in support for the main ally of SNS, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), from 11.79% (31 seats) in 2022 to 6.73% (18 seats) in the December 17, 2023, elections, was also noteworthy.

Comment:

• Never the less the protests of the opposition ware supported by thousands of the citizens of Belgrade they still were not able to mobilize the critical mass needed for a political change under the pressure of the people, failing to get a support from the people outside of the capital;
• While fraud and irregularities on election day were evident, they did not reach the extent claimed by the opposition and were not conclusively confirmed by foreign observers;
• International community support for the protests, particularly from the EU and the US, was cautious. It is now apparent that the West prefers engaging with Aleksandar Vucic, likely due to his firm grip on the ruling coalition, which unwaveringly follows his decisions. Simultaneously, the opposition coalition struggled to convince the West of its readiness to fully endorse the French-German plan for normalizing relations between Serbia and Kosovo. Some coalition parties opposed the plan during the election campaign, and certain opposition leaders openly declared to Western diplomats that they would never support any solution for Kosovo leading to de facto recognition of its independence;
• It is crucial to recognize the lack of homogeneity within the opposition. Even if it were to secure future election victories in Serbia, the governance of the country would likely encounter internal challenges, from personal issues within the coalition to policies regarding Kosovo, potentially leading to instability and a swift return of Aleksandar Vucic to power;
• It is yet to be seen what will happen with the forming of the Belgrade City Assembly, but in our opinion A. Vucic is not going to risk new elections in Belgrade and will find a way to get the support of Nestorovic or “buy” the missing votes. With or without new elections it is a must for SNS to keep Belgrade, because of the belief in Serbia, that losing the capital is the first step to lose power.