The historical significance of this year’s elections in the Republic of North Macedonia has three dimensions: for the first time in the country’s history, Macedonian voters will vote for both president and parliament at the same time; according to preliminary expectations, a change of power will take place; the outcome of the elections will significantly affect the dynamics of the EU accession process.
In the first round of the presidential elections on April 24, the predictions were confirmed and the candidate of the opposition VMRO-DPMNE Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova received 40.08%, ahead of the incumbent President Stevo Pendarovski, supported by the ruling Social Democrats SDSM – 19.93%. As in the previous elections, the president will be determined in the second round, and the outcome will depend on the votes of the Albanians.
The conduct of the “2 in 1” elections predetermined the great influence of the parties on the vote of the electors for the president. The surprise of the first round was the large margin by which the candidate of the opposition VMRO-DPMNE gained the upper hand. For the first time, SDSM received less than 200,000 votes in an election. The rating of the ruling SDSM, which according to statistics is constantly decreasing, was further diluted in the election campaign of the ruling party, which was focused on the so-called French proposal and constitutional changes, at the expense of the topics that directly concern citizens, first of all the fight against crime and corruption.
Macedonian citizens punished the rulers, and the dissatisfaction with the RNM’s lack of progress and with the current administration influenced the performance of the presidential candidates. The political parties in the RSM and the party votes determined the distribution of votes.
On the other hand, the result of the first round of the presidential elections will affect the environment in which the parliamentary elections will take place on May 8.
The surprise in the Albanian political bloc is the large lead of Bujar Osmani, nominated by the European Front coalition led by the largest Albanian party, Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) over the candidate of the opposition Albanian parties Arben Taravari, respectively 13.36% and 9. 21%. This will give grounds for the claims of DUI for participation in the future government.
The victory of VMRO-DPMNE in the parliamentary elections is considered already assured, but the formation of a government will be extremely difficult. VMRO-DPMNE takes a firm position that it will not form a coalition with DUI, regardless of whether it wins in the Albanian bloc. Party chairman Hristijan Mickoski has already called on the Albanian opposition to join the government, whatever the election results.
All Albanian parties, including the opposition ones, are for EU membership at any cost, i.e. upon acceptance of the Bulgarians in the constitution. VMRO-DPMNE has a firm position of not allowing constitutional changes to recognize the Bulgarian minority. The party, if it comes to power, will insist on changes in these conditions, which will put the EU in a difficult position to decide this case.
Albanian parties will not enter into a coalition with VMRO-DPMNE unless changes are made to the constitution, i.e. VMRO-DPMNE will have to make serious concessions, for which, however, it will be punished by the voters. In other words, VMRO-DPMNE’s attempt to form a government will bring the country very close to either an internal political crisis and destabilization, or to hindering the Macedonian integration path.
For the first time, the Albanian parties are expected to receive in the parliamentary elections a total of over 30 deputies in the 120-member RNM parliament, which will make them an unavoidable factor for the stability of the government.
In addition, the two major Macedonian parties do not have enough votes to elect a president at all in the second round of the presidential election, where a 40% voter turnout is required. They rejected the demand of the Albanian parties that the president be elected by the parliament. In North Macedonia, the president is traditionally elected by the votes of the Albanians. This time it will be very difficult for the Albanian parties to decide who to vote for in the second round of the presidential elections. Conservative Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova is a candidate less liked by Albanians overall. But if they want to negotiate for participation in the government of the expected winner of the parliamentary elections – VMRO-DPMNE, they will have to support its presidential candidate. Most likely, the Albanian parties will officially call on their voters to vote according to conscience, but behind-the-scenes negotiations are a tradition in the RNM. Therefore, the next Albanian government will consist of a Macedonian majority and an Albanian minority. A SDSM government in coalition with all Albanian parties is not excluded. Falling into the spiral of new elections is less likely.
