Thewesternbalkans
Amidst renewed efforts in 2023 to normalize relations between Serbia and Kosovo, less than a week before the Serbian elections, polls reflect a heightened focus on the “Kosovo issue.” This attention stems from mounting pressure from the EU and the US to find a resolution that implies de facto recognition of Kosovo’s independence.
The impact of this pressure is palpable in the Serbian political landscape, as right-wing and nationalist serbian parties seize the opportunity to garner support. European politicians’ insistence on addressing the Kosovo issue before the upcoming European Parliament elections in May elevates its significance in the political campaigns in Serbia. Even the so-called pro-European Serbian opposition, while rejecting the EU/French-German plan, finds itself compelled to adopt a tougher stance on Kosovo to avoid losing voters. This is particularly crucial following the Council of the EU’s announcement that it will propose the inclusion of the Ohrid Agreement in the negotiation process, Chapter 35. Acceptance of this proposal would effectively close the European door for Serbia, as it implies that Kosovo’s UN membership would be part of Chapter 35, which Aleksandar Vucic is not able to accept.
In the same time Kosovo is pressured by the same international factors to accept the creation of the Association of the Serb Communities /ASM/, without which Serbia is not going to move ahead in the dialog and as one of the main conditions of accepting of Kosovo in The Council of Europe, together with minority rights in general, women’s rights, removing Special police from North Kosovo and illegal expropriation of land in the north.
The current stalemate is evident, and the resumption of negotiations under the auspices of the EU appears futile unless both sides are willing to find a compromise. The EU and the US, cautious of pushing Serbia towards Russia or disappointing Kosovo citizens, are reluctant to exert further pressure on the two governments. Navigating these intricate diplomatic challenges is paramount to achieving a sustainable resolution in the region. The soft power used until now by EU and US is not giving results in both countries just because the long perspective of joining EU in the earliest of 2030 is not that important for the political leadership of both countries.
For Vucic, who is fighting to keep the ruling party in Serbia /SNS/ in power, the dialog is just a rhetoric he can use for the internal political use, creating the picture of the lonely hero who is fighting the mighty ”enemies” from the West. In the same time due to the election on 17th of December he will be able to postpone the forming of the new Serbian government at least until may next year and will have the excuse not to allow a serious progress in the dialog.
For Kurti, the situation is more or less the same, but in his case because it is clear that until he is not changing his position in the negotiating process with Serbia he will remain the most popular politician in Kosovo.
Comment:
One has to have in mind that there are some more facts that make the normalization of the relation between the two countries a “Mission impossible” in this moment. The first is on personal level – A. Vucic and A. Kurti hate each other’s guts, making it personal for them. Despite both being skilled politicians their rivalry is another important reason for the deadlock of the process.
The second one is more or less also personal – Vucic’ dream is to enter the historic books as the leader who solved the Kosovo issue in a way acceptable for the Serbian people, and Kurti wanting the full recognition of independent Kosovo during “tomorrow” /or at least until the end of his mandate as a leader of his country/.
Reading the above text some might think “that means that the normalization is death” but it is not entirely true. Through the dialog some issues that concern the everyday life of the ordinary people, especially for the Serbs in the North can be solved – recognition of the diplomas, marriages to be recognized, freeing trade between the two countries and many more. The tension and provocations from both sides have to be avoided in the future and the blame game stopped.
The dialog is needed but expecting fast results is a mirage…
