Thewesternbalkans
According to the European Commission’s document, the 2024 report on Serbia is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.
The report said that since the opening of Serbia’s accession negotiations in January 2014, 22 out of 35 chapters have been opened.
The overall pace of negotiations will continue to depend on the rule of law reforms and the normalisation of Serbia’s relations with Kosovo.
The main conclusion of the report is that the Serbian government has continued to declare EU membership its strategic goal. However, the early election and the corresponding break in the functioning of Government and Parliament has slowed down the progress of reforms. “The Serbian authorities still need, as a matter of priority, to take much more responsibility for proactive and objective communication on Serbia’s EU accession process and the EU, which is by far Serbia’s main political and economic partner, and for countering disinformation in its national media” the report said.
Serbia has continued to broadly implement the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) between Serbia and the EU. In the reporting period, the EU-facilitated Dialogue on normalisation of relations between Serbia and Kosovo continued. The position of the European Commission is that both Parties committed to fully implement all of their respective obligations stemming from the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation and its Implementation Annex reached in 2023.
(It is really curious situation: European Commission insists that there is an Agreement on the Path to Normalisation, and respectively obligations. In the same time in Belgrade and in Pristina don’t even think about the implementation of like an agreement.)
Constructive engagement in the normalisation of their relations is also a requirement under the Reform and Growth Facility for the Western Balkans. The EU expects Serbia to fully cooperate and take all the necessary measures to apprehend and swiftly bring to justice the perpetrators of the 2023 attacks in the north of Kosovo.
(It is another think – much more serious. There are engagements on normalization – there is European money. No engagements – no money)
Following Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, Serbia aligned with some EU positions in international forums (including in the UN General Assembly). Serbia has continued to cooperate with the EU on sanctions circumvention and providing financial and humanitarian support to Ukraine. However, it still does not to align with any restrictive measures against the Russian Federation and has not aligned with most of the High Representative statements on this matter. It has maintained high-level relations with the Russian Federation and intensified its relations with China, raising questions about Serbia’s strategic direction. Under the EU-Serbia negotiating framework, Serbia is expected to progressively align its policies towards third countries with the policies and positions adopted by the EU, including restrictive measure.
The focus of the report is that Serbia declares EU membership its strategic goal, Agreement on the Path to Normalisation, (achieved with the mediation of the EC). However, it still does not to align with any restrictive measures against the Russian Federation and has not aligned with most of the High Representative statements on this matter. It has maintained high-level relations with the Russian Federation and intensified its relations with China. The latter raising questions about Serbia’s strategic direction.
The European Commission is puted in a rather difficult position, because on the one hand, Serbia is an important country in the Balkans from a political and economic point of view, rich in some resources needed by the EU, and cannot be easily abandoned. Something that is also well understood by the Serbian authorities and allows them to seek more freedom in their decisions, a multi vector foreign policy.
On the other hand the report said that Serbia has actively engaged in the implementation of the new Growth Plan for the Western Balkans across the four pillars on: the gradual integration with the EU single market, regional economic integration, fundamental reforms and increased financial support. Significant efforts have been made on gradual integration. On 3 October 2024, Serbia adopted its Reform Agenda envisaged under the Reform and Growth Facility (Growth Plan for Western Balkans). The Reform Agenda covers reform milestones in: business environment and private sector development; green and digital transition; human capital; fundamental rights and the rule of law. The Commission’s 2024 rule of law report covered Serbia for the first time.
The main findings of the report are described in 6 clusters:
CLUSTER 1: The fundamentals of the accession process. Democracy. The conduct of elections requires tangible improvement and further reform. It is vital that all outstanding and recent recommendations by the OSCE/ODIHR and the Council of Europe bodies are fully implemented, in a transparent and inclusive process and well ahead of any new elections.
Parliament’s ability to ensure the exercise of necessary checks and balances is constrained by issues of effectiveness, autonomy, and transparency, including in terms of the oversight of the executive and the law-making process. Parliament’s new composition is more pluralistic than the previous legislature. Debates continued to be marked by tensions between the ruling coalition and the opposition.
The institutions in charge of the EU integration process are in place and work efficiently. However, the legislative recess that was linked to the calling of an early election led to a slow-down of the reform process and posed a challenge to the functioning of administrative structures responsible for the accession negotiations. Serbia continues to declare EU membership as its strategic goal. However, the authorities are yet to ensure a more proactive and objective communication about the EU and Serbia’s accession process.
The government was in a caretaker capacity between 1 November 2023 and 2 May 2024, when the new government was appointed. The recommendations by independent bodies need to be followed up more closely. Implementation of the programme to reform the local government system continued to make slow progress.
Civil society organisations (CSOs) in Serbia operate in a difficult environment. Further efforts are needed to ensure systematic, genuine and meaningful cooperation between the government and CSOs.
Serbia is moderately prepared in the area of public administration reform and overall, no progress was made.
In the Judiciary and fundamental rights Serbia has reached some level of preparation and has made limited progress, notably in the adoption of by-laws to the laws implementing the constitutional amendments.
Serbia is between having some level of preparation and a moderate level of preparation in the fight against corruption. Overall, some progress has been made during the reporting period on last year’s recommendations. Serbia adopted the new anti-corruption strategy (2024-2028) in July 2024. Serbia still needs to adopt and begin implementing the accompanying action plan. Overall, corruption is prevalent in many areas and remains an issue of concern. There is a need for strong political will to effectively address corruption issues, as well as a robust criminal justice response to high-level corruption. Targeted risk assessments and specific measures are also needed to address corruption in the most vulnerable sectors.
Serbia’s legislative and institutional framework for upholding fundamental rights is broadly in place. This framework needs to be consistently and efficiently implemented. Most of the Commission’s recommendations from last year have not yet been implemented and remain valid.
Serbia has some level of preparation and has made limited progress in addressing last year’s recommendations. Authorities continued to cooperate actively with CEPOL, Eurojust, Europol and INTERPOL, notably in drugs trafficking and the fight against organised crime groups. There has been insufficient follow-up in investigations and prosecutions for the 2023 attacks in the north of Kosovo.
Economic criteria. Serbia has a good level of preparation and has made some progress in developing a functioning market economy. An appropriately tight monetary and fiscal policy has helped disinflation, while economic growth is on a recovery path. The reform of the public sector wage system continued to advance slowly. There are still structural challenges in State aid, competition, and public procurement; and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have a significant presence in the economy. The private sector is hampered by weaknesses in the rule of law, in particular in tackling corruption and judicial inefficiency. Last year’s recommendations were implemented to some extent but are still mostly valid.
Serbia is moderately prepared and has made some progress in coping with competitive pressures and market forces within the EU, as well as financial control and public procurement. The structure of the economy is favourable, with a growing manufacturing and service sector that benefits from sizeable FDI and close economic integration with the EU. However, the quality and relevance of education and training does not fully meet labour market needs.
Serbia is between a moderate and a good level of preparation in the area of statistics. Good progress was made during the reporting period with the agricultural census conducted in October 2023, in line with EU standards.
CLUSTER 2: Internal market. Serbia is moderately prepared in the area of free movement of goods, freedom of movement for workers, right of establishment and freedom to provide services, free movement of capital, in company law, financial services, health protection. Limited progress was made on last year’s recommendations with the adoption of strategic documents relevant to ensure compliance, alignment with and implementation of EU acquis in those chapters,
CLUSTER 3: Competitiveness and inclusive growth. Serbia is moderately prepared in the field of digital transformation and media, social policy and employment, as well as enterprise and industrial policy.
Limited progress was made on further digitalisation in the area of e-government and in aligning with EU Digital Single Market objectives. The deployment of ultra-fast broadband infrastructure in rural areas and support to the digitalisation of schools continued.
The Commission’s recommendations from last year were only partially implemented and remain largely valid.
Serbia is between a moderate and a good level of preparation in the area of taxation and economic and monetary policy. It made limited progress, in particular in further digitalising indirect and direct taxation and implementing the Tax Administration transformation programme.
Serbia has a good level of preparation in science and research, customs union, as well as in education and culture. Some progress was made, in particular with the adoption of the new action plans for the smart specialisation strategy and the strategy for the development of a start-up ecosystem.
The Commission’s recommendations from last year were partially implemented and remain valid.
CLUSTER 4: The Green Agenda and sustainable connectivity. This cluster covers four chapters: Transport policy, Energy, Trans-European networks and Environment and climate change.
Serbia has a good level of preparation in this field of transport policy. Limited progress was made during the reporting period with the adoption of the Road Safety Strategy and its 3-year action plan.
Serbia is moderately prepared in the area of energy. Limited progress was made on last year’s recommendations. Progress included the completion of works on the gas interconnector between Serbia and Bulgaria and the establishment of the Republic Commission for Energy Networks.
Serbia is between a moderate and a good level of preparation in the area of trans-European networks. Overall, some progress was made, including starting construction of the Niš–Dimitrovgrad railway line and completing the construction of the gas interconnector with Bulgaria.
CLUSTER 5: Resources, agriculture and cohesion. Serbia has some level of preparation in agriculture and rural development, as well as in the area of regional policy and the coordination of structural instruments. Limited progress was made in strengthening the IPARD Agency’s capacity and improving overall efficiency in the implementation of the Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance for Rural Development (IPARD).
Serbia is moderately prepared in the area of food safety, veterinary and phytosanitary policy, fisheries and aquaculture. No progress was made during the reporting period.
Serbia has some level of preparation in the area of financial and budgetary provisions. No progress was made in implementing last year’s recommendations.
CLUSTER 6: External relations. Serbia is moderately prepared in the area of external relations. No progress was made. The capacity to tackle key challenges in trade policy needs to be strengthened, in particular to move forward with accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) where again no progress was made. Following the expiry of the previous set of trade restrictions in October 2023, Serbia introduced a number of new de facto and de jure trade barriers. This includes a new quantitative import restrictions on sunflower oil and margarine and an import ban on pellets in non-compliance of the SAA.
The Commission’s recommendations from last year were not implemented and remain mostly valid.
Serbia is moderately prepared in the area of common foreign, security and defence policy. No progress was made overall during the reporting period as Serbia’s alignment pattern was largely unchanged, and some of its actions and statements went against EU foreign policy positions.
And now the hardest part of the report: “Serbia maintained high-level relations with the Russian Federation, raising questions about Serbia’s strategic direction. The country also intensified relations with China. This included the entry into force on 1 July 2024 of the Free Trade Agreement with China, which is a strategic concern”. In the same time, Serbia continued to participate in and contribute substantially to EU crisis management missions and operations under the common security and defence policy.
Generally, it is possible to conclude that there is Serbia with two faces: firstly, there is Serbia with a good administrative capacity, which permitted to the country to have moderately and sometimes good preparation in the almost all negotiating chapters, and to have conclusions as “The Commission’s recommendations from last year were partially implemented and remain largely valid.”
On the other hand, we see conclusions like: “Serbia maintained high-level relations with the Russian Federation, raising questions about Serbia’s strategic direction. The country also intensified relations with China. This included the entry into force on 1 July 2024 of the Free Trade Agreement with China, which is a strategic concern”.
The strategy and the tactic for Serbia are clear: From the geopolitical point of view Belgrade will continue to follow its own agenda based on its own interests, and balancing between the West and the East. In the same time there will be serious efforts to advance negotiations following different chapters and one day to close a critical mass of them.
For instant both in Brussels and in Belgrade know very well that EU enlargement to Serbia is not a short term priority.
