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Türkiye prepares new model for Black Sea security
Türkiye is likely to take on a naval mission for security in the Black Sea as part of security guarantees given to Ukraine, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told reporters after the Coalition of the Willing summit in Paris on January 6. Fidan added that it was only natural that Türkiye, the NATO ally with the largest navy in the Black Sea, would be responsible for maritime security.
French President Emmanuel Macron has publicly supported Türkiye’s readiness to take on responsibility in this area.
After Moscow insisted it would not allow NATO troops to be stationed on Ukrainian soil under any agreement, Türkiye has focused on leading a potential naval mission in the Black Sea — acting as a deterrent, demining the waters and helping Ukraine rebuild its navy.
Türkiye – the initiator of a naval alliance in the Black Sea?
The statements in Paris in January probably served as a concrete reason for a number of media outlets in France and the Black Sea region to talk about a “confidential project for a Turkish-led naval coalition in the Black Sea.” The original source was one – the French „Intelligence online“ platform.
According to reports, the long-term vision of the secret project included military cooperation under Ankara’s leadership, initially covering Bulgaria and Romania, and after the signing of a peace agreement – Ukraine and Russia, with a more limited participation of Georgia.
So far, there have been no official statements from the Turkish Foreign Ministry or the other parties involved, but a series of diplomatic meetings and military exercises show that Türkiye is firmly laying the foundations for a more comprehensive naval framework for the Black Sea.
Indeed, the idea of creating a Turkish-led naval coalition in the Black Sea, intended for the period after the active hostilities between Ukraine and Russia, has recently been discussed among diplomatic and military circles in the region, according to diplomats from the region. The project does not aim to form a military alliance in the classical sense, but to build a stabilization mechanism in an environment in which the war has formally ended, but tensions remain high.
There is no widely reported, officially acknowledged Turkish government initiative specifically called a “maritime union of the Black Sea countries” on the level of a formal regional sea-wide alliance or union — at least not in the sense of a new political/maritime bloc equivalent to the EU or NATO. However, there are several related ongoing initiatives and discussions involving Türkiye and other Black Sea littoral states that reflect a kind of increased Turkish push for cooperation in the Black Sea region, including maritime security and naval cooperation.
Officially, the initiative is presented as a pragmatic instrument for ensuring maritime safety — protecting trade routes, demining, preventing military incidents, guarding energy and agricultural flows, and monitoring a possible ceasefire. Behind this technical framework, however, lies a deeper political logic: to re-align the balance of power in the Black Sea in a way that does not leave the region entirely under the control of either NATO or Russia. The direct presence of large non-regional NATO forces is deliberately avoided, so as not to turn the initiative into a source of tension with Russia.
Why Türkiye?
Türkiye is emerging as a natural leader of such a format. Ankara is the only regional player that combines significant naval power, control over the Straits, NATO membership and a sustained dialogue with Moscow. The Montreux Convention gives it powers that in wartime become a powerful geopolitical tool – the ability to regulate access to the Black Sea.
After its role in the grain deal and mediation between Kiev and Moscow, Türkiye is increasingly openly positioning itself as a regional maritime arbiter, simultaneously seeking to consolidate its own strategic influence.
In operational terms, the coalition would carry out specific, clearly defined tasks – joint naval patrols, maritime mine clearance, escort of merchant ships, countering naval drones and sabotage, as well as coordinating port activities and maritime traffic. A central command element is also envisaged, probably located in Türkiye.
What will Moscow say?
From Moscow’s perspective, such a format can only be acceptable under certain conditions – the absence of non-regional NATO forces, the preservation of the operational freedom of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and a clear link to a formal peace agreement. Russia categorically rejected the proposal made in Davos to create a naval group of neutral states to protect merchant vessels, as violating the Montreux Convention. In this sense, Russia could tolerate the regional Turkish initiative as the lesser evil compared to a deeper and more permanent Western military presence in the water area.
In March 2022, Ankara closed the Straits to warships of any state in accordance with the Montreux Convention. Russian officials express satisfaction that Türkiye strictly adheres to the agreement in this regard to this day.
Economic significance
In addition to a potential military mission, Türkiye is interested in participating in the reconstruction of Ukraine. “Our economic experience, the skills of our business community and especially our strength in infrastructure are critical assets,” Hakan Fidan said in Paris on January 6. “We believe that once peace comes, Türkiye will play a major role in stimulating the economic revival and reconstruction of the region.”
Behind the military logic lies a significant economic stake. The Black Sea is a key artery for Ukrainian exports, an important energy corridor and a strategic space for underwater and digital infrastructure. Stabilizing it means not only physical security, but also restoring confidence in markets, reducing insurance risk and protecting investments in ports and logistics chains.
Regional and geopolitical dimensions
Türkiye’s regional leadership also includes ambitions to engage the countries of the wider Balkan Peninsula on issues including regional stability, cooperation frameworks, migration, and EU integration processes, particularly through the Balkan Peace Platform, which seeks to strengthen dialogue and cooperation among the countries of Southeast Europe.
On 23 January 2026, Hakan Fidan hosted the second meeting of the Balkan Peace Platform in Istanbul, which brought together the foreign ministers of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. Participants discussed a wide range of issues, including regional disputes, border compatibility and efforts to combat irregular migration, energy security, digital transformation, industry, youth and technology, as well as transport corridors and regional connectivity. Participants stressed that the Balkan Peace Platform is intended to complement, not replace, existing regional and international initiatives. The first meeting of the Balkan Peace Platform took place in Istanbul in July 2025.
Ankara also emphasizes its active role in multilateral cooperation, including its participation in the South East European Cooperation Process and its leadership in the trilateral consultative mechanisms involving Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia.
In a broader geopolitical context, Ankara’s new initiative is turning the Black Sea into a laboratory for a new model of multipolar security. Stability in the region can be achieved not through NATO dominance, but through regional compromise. This logic reflects a broader trend in European security: a retreat from universal bloc solutions and a search for regional, more flexible formats for risk management.
Bulgaria’s Role
For Bulgaria, participation in the new naval format brings both opportunities and risks. It strengthens its role as a strategic partner in the Black Sea, but it faces the difficult task of balancing its commitments to NATO and Türkiye’s desire to impose its own order in the waters. It is this balance that will determine whether Sofia will be an active factor in the new security architecture or a passive participant in a foreign geopolitical project.
Bulgaria is an active participant in one of the most concrete developments of the Turkish-led trilateral initiative with Romania focused on maritime security and de-mining operations in the Black Sea: In January 2024, Türkiye, Bulgaria and Romania signed an agreement establishing a Mine Countermeasures (MCM) Task Group to tackle drifting sea mines in Black Sea waters — a shared security concern arising from the Russia-Ukraine war. This Mine Countermeasures Naval Group has been activated multiple times, with joint operations and rotating leadership among the three navies to improve safety for commercial and military shipping.
