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The political landscape in Bosnia and Herzegovina remains highly volatile, making it difficult to predict how events will unfold in the near future. The deterioration of the domestic political climate, which began on December 25, 2024, when the Parliament of Republika Srpska adopted conclusions challenging the legitimacy of central state institutions, further deepened in January 2025.
A major contributing factor was the January 9 celebration of Republika Srpska Day, declared unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court of BiH. The event included a paramilitary parade of 2,500 participants and was attended by a high-ranking Serbian delegation, led by the Prime Minister and Speaker of Parliament of Serbia, as well as Russia’s ambassador to Belgrade.
Dodik’s Trial and Political Fallout
Another key development is the ongoing trial of Milorad Dodik, who stands accused of failing to implement decisions by EU High Representative Christian Schmidt. When the trial resumed on January 29, Dodik’s supporters protested outside the courthouse, calling it a politically motivated case against Republika Srpska’s interests. A first-instance verdict is expected between late February and early March, with potential consequences ranging from a six-month to five-year ban from public office. Dodik is expected to appeal any conviction, likely prolonging the legal process in hopes that a new U.S. administration might soften Washington’s stance on Bosnia and Herzegovina, improving his legal and political prospects.
Coalition Crisis and the Role of HDZ-BiH
The January 23 decision by the three parties in the national ruling coalition—Our Party, People and Justice, and the Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina (collectively known as the “Troika”)—to end their alliance with Dodik’s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) has triggered significant political instability.
However, the restructuring of the governing coalition largely depends on the stance of Dragan Čović’s Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ-BiH). Čović has remained cautious and non-committal, with indications that HDZ-BiH prefers to maintain the status quo. It remains uncertain whether HDZ-BiH can persuade the Troika to continue governing with SNSD’s participation.
Even if the SNSD is excluded from government through a cabinet reshuffle, it will still wield considerable influence. Without SNSD representatives in the upper house of parliament, securing a quorum for legislative decision-making—including for EU-related reforms—will be nearly impossible.
Additional Political Tensions
Further complicating the political landscape is the SNSD’s alliance with the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) of Bakir Izetbegović. Both parties, for their own reasons, seek to remove Foreign Minister Elmedin Konaković (leader of People and Justice, part of the ruling coalition). However, it remains unclear whether the SDA and the Democratic Front will succeed in pushing for Konaković’s resignation in parliament.
Meanwhile, Borjana Krišto, Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers, has signaled that SNSD should propose a candidate for the vacant Minister of Security position, after Nenad Nešić (SNSD) resigned amid corruption charges. However, the House of Representatives may oppose SNSD’s nomination, creating further deadlock.
Possible scenarios will depend on whether the SDA would show interest in participating in the government together with the SNSD. In this context, Milorad Dodik has welcomed the idea of a tripartite dialogue between SNSD, HDZ-BiH, and SDA, mediated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Bosnia’s EU Progress and Next Steps
Despite the ongoing political turmoil, some progress has been made in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s EU accession process. On January 30, 2025, two key European laws—on data protection and border control—were adopted with the support of opposition representatives from Republika Srpska. However, a much greater challenge lies ahead: maintaining coalition stability while pushing forward with EU-related reforms.
A critical mid-February meeting between the Troika, SNSD, and HDZ will determine the future of the government, key legislative priorities, and efforts to stabilize the political situation.
Despite the heightened political confrontation, the security environment remains stable for now. However, continued uncertainty over Dodik’s trial, coalition reshuffling, and EU reforms will shape Bosnia and Herzegovina’s political trajectory in the coming months.
