Thewesternbalkans
As Miroslav Lajčák, the EU Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue and other Western Balkan regional issues, prepares to vacate the role he assumed on April 2, 2020, it is an opportune moment to evaluate his tenure. Lajčák’s period of stewardship has seen both progress and setbacks, and his departure raises critical questions about the future trajectory of the dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo.
Achievements and Shortcomings
During Lajčák’s tenure, notable advancements were made, including the Brussels Agreement and its annexes in February and March 2023, which provided a tangible framework for normalizing relations between Serbia and Kosovo. Additional successes include the political declaration on missing persons and the mutual acceptance of vehicle registration plates. However, these achievements were overshadowed by heightened crises, particularly in the last two years, which have largely stymied the normalization process. Incidents such as the clashes between Kosovo Serbs and KFOR forces in 2023, the attack on Kosovo policemen in Banjska, and contentious local elections in Northern Kosovo have contributed to a state of deadlock.
Serbia’s Calculated Stance
Serbia, under the leadership of the SNS government, has not outrightly challenged the dialogue process but has strategically delayed addressing certain issues. This approach appears aimed at preserving the status quo to avoid making concessions that could erode internal political support. Despite agreeing under Western pressure to mutual recognition of identity documents, driver’s licenses, and signing an agreement in the field of electricity, Serbia’s primary focus has been on the creation of the Association of Serb Municipalities (ASM) within Kosovo. This objective has positioned Belgrade as a relatively more reliable partner in the eyes of the EU, although questions about Serbia’s responsibility for incidents in May and September 2023 remain pertinent.
Kosovo’s Reluctance
Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s administration has systematically marginalized the EU-led dialogue, seeking to achieve its objectives outside this framework. Kurti’s reluctance to engage substantively with Belgrade and the Kosovo Serbs underscores his strategic preference to pursue international recognition and membership in international organizations mainly, the Council of Europe. The ASM remains a contentious issue, with Kosovo’s government yet to refer the draft status to the Constitutional Court for compliance checks. Rumours suggest that Pristina may present its own ASM project, anticipated to be deemed unconstitutional by the Court.
The Road Ahead
The path forward hinges on the EU member states adopting a unified stance and clear objectives. Until now, divergent geopolitical alignments have influenced their support for Kosovo or Serbia. The incoming EU Special Representative must strive to align member states’ focus on ground realities and the commitments of both governments. Albin Kurti’s scepticism towards the EU-led dialogue suggests he will continue seeking international endorsements and exerting pressure on the Serbian minority in Northern Kosovo.
Implications for EU Integration
A comprehensive, legally binding normalization agreement between Kosovo and Serbia is crucial for advancing their European integration. Such an agreement would enhance regional stability, security, economic development, and integration, thereby contributing to the EU’s security and stability. However, internal political dynamics in both countries complicate this process. With upcoming elections in Serbia and a potential early election in Kosovo, leaders are incentivized to maintain their hardline stances.
Comments :
As the EU is preparing for the appointment of a new Special Representative, the starting point is fraught with challenges. The groundwork laid by Lajčák provides a foundation, but trust in the EU’s intentions and a unified approach among member states are essential for meaningful progress. While sanctions on Kosovo may be lifted soon, and funding from the Western Balkan Growth Fund may continue, significant developments in the dialogue and Kosovo’s international aspirations remain contingent on resolving the ASM issue.
The public support for the current policies of both leaders indicates that the road ahead will be complex and fraught with geopolitical and domestic hurdles.
