Thewesternbalkans.
A referendum on the decision of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the decision of the Central Election Commission to revoke the mandate of the President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik will be held on October 18 or 25, it was decided at a meeting of the ruling coalition, local media reported.
The decision to call a referendum was to be presented at the session of the National Assembly of Republika Srpska on August 22, but the session was postponed due to a bomb threat.
The media point out that by the date of the referendum, there is enough time for the amendments to the Law on Referendum and Citizens’ Initiative, as well as the Decision on the Referendum, to go through all decision-making levels – first the National Assembly, and then the Council of Peoples and the Constitutional Court of Republika Srpska in case of raising issues of vital national interest.
On August 18, the Appellate Division of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina rejected the appeal of Dodik’s legal team against the decision of the CEC of Bosnia and Herzegovina to revoke the mandate.
At its meeting on August 6, the CEC of Bosnia and Herzegovina decided to terminate Dodik’s mandate due to his failure to comply with the decisions of the High Representative Christian Schmidt.
Comment: Authorities in Banja Luka are preparing for two referendums – first for confidence in the government, and then, after 90 days, for independence.
President Milorad Dodik will certainly receive full support in the first referendum, which will pave the way for a referendum on independence. Over the past 20 years, Dodik has announced the holding of a referendum on self-determination, on the status of Republika Srpska, on its independence or its separation from Bosnia and Herzegovina about 30 times, and each time happens nothing.
The question is whether Dodik is bluffing this time too. The current international situation does not seem suitable for such a step by Banja Luka, which would blast the Dayton Agreement, and with it the peace and stability in the Balkans. The constitutional crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina is this time exacerbated by both the declared disobedience of the Serbian entity to the central government and the attempts by Sarajevo and part of the international community to remove Dodik by force.
In fact, very soon the Republika Srpska, which is moving at full speed towards complete separation from Bosnia and Herzegovina, may reach the point of no return. In this case, Serbia will not be able to remain passive and will almost certainly intervene. This instability will be immediately used by nationalists in the Balkans to make chauvinistic and revanchist demands.
If Dodik sees himself pressed against the wall, he will probably play va bank and the escalation around the referendums will gain particular weight against the backdrop of the intensified geopolitical struggle.
The disintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina will set a precedent for other disputed territories in Europe and will weaken the EU’s position in the strategically important region between the West and the East.
