Thewesternbalkans.
The year 2026 is shaping up to be even more turbulent and packed with geopolitical events and actions by global “players.” This will largely determine the development of the Western Balkans region.
Of crucial importance for the Western Balkans will be the willingness and capabilities of the European Union, through various programs and funds, to contribute to the European integration of the countries in the region. Integration based on each country’s individual merits and the common rules of the EU itself. The experience of 2025 showed that the EU is straightforward enough when it comes to adhering to its own decisions and rules for the enlargement process toward the Western Balkans, and flexible enough when it comes to seeking development rather than blocking processes.
At the same time, the EU is entering the decisive phase of preparing its new financial framework for 2028-2034, in which it must allocate funds for its main priorities, including the enlargement to at least two countries from the Western Balkans. It is unlikely that the new framework will encounter problems in financing EU enlargement, but the already undertaken political, financial, and economic commitments to Ukraine, as well as to the EU’s defence industry for armament, may prove beyond the Union’s capacity and may require a revision of policies. This is primarily determined by the unprecedented political engagement of the EU in last years as a global player.
Some scientists thinks that if Europe wants to become an active participant, rather than a passive object in international relations, they believe that it must increase its defence budget, implement Mario Draghi’s economic recommendations, and develop strategic relations with its close neighbours (especially Turkiye).
Only the future will show whether the current EU leaders, both at the Union level and at the level of member states, have been great strategists or have mainly been driven by their personal ambitions and desires.
In its preparation for the next decade of the 21st century, the EU is expected to make the necessary reforms so that the Union can continue to function as such even after the next expansion with two, four, or five countries. In this preparation, besides increasing the efficiency of governance, Brussels and the capitals of the member states should also consider many problems, including corruption at particularly high levels, examples of which have not been lacking in recent years.
The influence of the United States remains an important factor in the development of the Western Balkans. The adoption by the US House of Representatives of the Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act in December 2025 shows that Washington is closely monitoring the situation in the region and has no intention of giving up its desire for influence.
This act is part of the broader National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2026 and was supported by 312 representatives (197 Republicans and 115 Democrats), with 112 voting against.
The legislation has been forwarded to the Senate for approval, after which it will be sent to US President Donald Trump for his signature. Following the House vote, the White House confirmed that “Trump will sign the act.”
These are the main findings of the Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act:
Unlike previous non-binding resolutions or declarative statements, this Act establishes a legal framework with provisions that are mandatory for the State Department and the Pentagon. The act does not merely offer a political assessment of the region but explicitly defines the obligations of the US executive branch toward Western Balkans countries.
Of all the countries in the region, Serbia is the only one explicitly mentioned. Congressional findings state that the “parliamentary and local elections held in Serbia on December 17, 2023, and their immediate aftermath are cause for deep concern about the State of Serbia’s democracy.”
Unjust conditions for elections in Serbia. The state of democracy in Serbia is “deeply concerning”, and conditions for the elections are “unjust.” Serbian officials accuse peaceful protestors, opposition parties, and civil society of “attempting to destabilize the government,” a “concerning allegation that threatens the safety of important elements of Serbian society.”
In making this assessment, the US cites the final report of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).
The Act highlights that the report identified “unjust conditions” for the elections, “numerous procedural deficiencies, including inconsistent application of safeguards during voting and counting, frequent instances of overcrowding, breaches in secrecy of the vote, and numerous instances of group voting.”
“The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe also noted that Serbian officials accused primarily peaceful protestors, opposition parties, and civil society of ‘attempting to destabilize the government’, a concerning allegation that threatens the safety of important elements of Serbian society,” the Act reads.
Corruption among key political leaders. The Western Balkan countries are defined as “critical to the peace, stability, and prosperity of the European continent.”
Corruption is highlighted as a threat to this stability, “including among key political leaders,” alongside “disinformation campaigns” that “undermine the credibility of democratic institutions, including the integrity of elections.”
The act says that corruption “continues to plague the Western Balkans and represents one of the greatest impediments to further economic and political development in the region.”
Sanctions within 90 days. One of the most significant tools established by this act is the implementation of sanctions. The Act mandates that the US President impose sanctions “not later than 90 days after the date of enactment of this Act,” against any foreign person who “engaged or attempted to engage in corruption related to the Western Balkans.”
This also includes “corruption by or on behalf of, a government in the Western Balkans, or a current or former government official in the Western Balkans.”
Sanctions are also slated for persons and “policies that threaten the peace, security, stability, or territorial integrity of any area or state in the Western Balkans.”
Furthermore, sanctions can be applied to those who undermine democratic processes or institutions, as well as those responsible for serious human rights violations. These measures may include the blocking of property and the revocation of visas.
Russia also continues to maintain its influence in the region, mainly based on its relations with Serbia, and respectively with the Republic of North Macedonia, where Serbian influence remains particularly strong. Despite American sanctions against major Russian companies operating in the Western Balkans and the possibilities to reduce energy dependence on Russia, there are still open doors to sustaining this dependence. Furthermore, other factors of influence should not be underestimated, such as Slavic identity, Orthodox Christianity, Russia’s historical ties with the region, as well as the potential to contain the Albanian factor, which is considered to be the key to Serbia’s security.
Turkiye remains an important player in the Western Balkans, with its support and role as a guarantor of the Muslim population, as well as with its significantly increased economic presence. The policies pursued by President Erdoğan and his government have led to unprecedented development in relations both with predominantly Muslim countries like Albania and Kosovo, and with countries such as the Republic of North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Even relations with Serbia have developed.
China is firmly established in the region, mainly following the signing and entry into force of the Free Trade Agreement with Serbia. The implementation of projects under the “Belt and Road” Initiative also contributes to strengthening China’s position.
What to expect and what will not happen in the Western Balkans region in 2026.
The EU will continue its policy of enlargement towards the Western Balkans, and to reflect progress it will likely start drafting the Accession Treaty for Montenegro. Negotiations with Albania will continue at the same pace, and most likely all negotiation chapters will be opened and a large part of them closed. It is very likely that the first intergovernmental conference with Bosnia and Herzegovina will also be held.
Negotiations with Serbia will be conducted based on the country’s significant geopolitical importance, as well as a function of its alignment with the positions of Belgrade regarding the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy.
There will not be normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo as envisioned in Brussels. Given the current political situation in Skopje, there will also be no constitutional change in the Republic of North Macedonia to include the Bulgarian minority.
Overall – we can expect an interesting and tense 2026, but not a particularly difficult one for forecasts on general matters.
