Thewesternbalkans.
The sixth most populous country in the EU held another presidential election after the previous one was canceled due to allegations of foreign interference, with a divided society and an uncertain geopolitical context. This time there were no surprises.
George Simion, candidate of the nationalist party Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR), won the first round of the repeat presidential election in Romania, held on May 4. He received 41% of the vote and will go to a runoff on May 18 with the independent candidate Nicușor Dan, mayor of Bucharest, who received 21%. Simion’s victory gives victory to Călin Georgescu, whose victory on November 24, 2024, was canceled. Georgescu did not officially support Simion in the election campaign, but on voting day he stood by him.
The cancellation of the November election disappointed many voters, who were dissatisfied with the neglect of their votes. The protest vote, however, was directed not at the reformist parties, but at the nationalist parties in Romania. This led to a doubling of the votes for the nationalist camp (in November 2024, Georgescu received 23%).
The election results show that in the largest cities – Bucharest and Cluj, the reformer Nico Dan won, and in the regions – the anti-system candidate George Simion. 60% of the votes from the diaspora went to Simion.
Many Romanian and European observers believe that in the second round, which is shaping up to be very interesting, the pro-European votes will be united by the reformer Dan. However, his rival Simion clearly states: “We are not anti-European, we oppose the bureaucratic deviation of the EU”. Romanian media call Simion “the MAGA man”, and Romanian experts indicate that he is not “pro-Russian”, but “pro-MAGA”. Moreover, according to political science analyses, in Eastern Europe elections are won by the countryside, and that is where Simion’s support lies.
Consequences of the elections: The ranking of a nationalist and reformer in the run-off is a blow to the established parties in Romania, which now seem unnecessary. Regardless of whether Simion becomes president, his convincing victory in the first round means a breakthrough for the nationalists to enter power. Simion has already announced that if he becomes president, he will nominate Georgescu for prime minister. An early election is also being considered.
Overall, the mood in the country is a mixture of anger, fear and disorientation. The majority of the population is wondering which politicians and institutions they can still trust. Romania is currently experiencing a truly serious state crisis.
What does this mean for Europe?
Romania is the most important NATO and EU country in Southeast Europe. Destabilizing such a large EU country and pushing it into a geostrategic gray zone with growing Russian influence would be a huge success for Moscow.
The entry of nationalists into power will not lead to Romania being sidelined from the European path, but it will bring it closer to the trajectory of Donald Trump’s policies.
